Short handed JQ from the button

Villain is a bit of an "action" player. Any thoughts? Call / raise / fold, usual stuff? :joyman:

Seat 1: keliwah - $59.46
Seat 2: Bombjack - $85.41
Seat 3: antchovie - $0 (away from table)
Seat 4: Villain - $69.12
Seat 5: baredog03 - $4.13
Seat 6: TicTacMenac - $46.69
Moving Button to seat 2
Villain posts small blind ($0.25)
baredog03 posts big blind ($0.50)
Shuffling Deck
Dealing Cards
Dealing [] [] to Bombjack
TicTacMenac folds
keliwah folds
Bombjack raises to $2
Villain calls $2
baredog03 folds
Dealing Flop [] [] []
Bombjack: antchovie still here??
Villain bets $2
Bombjack raises to $6
Villain calls $6
Dealing Turn []
Villain checks
Bombjack bets $6
Villain calls $6
Dealing River []
Villain bets $15
Bombjack: cripes, hit your flush?
Bombjack: JT?
Bombjack calls $15

Unless he bluffs alot something definitely improved his hand on the river could be the hearts or JT like you asked. Given the blinds .25/.50 a $15 bet is huge in comparison (hmm but only half the pot, he is GIVING you odds to call). I'm a bit tight so my move would be fold here. Depends on your opponent though. With that $15 bet (remember he was the caller now he's the bettor) he's either saying "I've got the flush" or he's saying "I'm not afraid of a flush..I hope you got it." Hmm. maybe even the 8 9 of hearts

But the flop says alot. If he's the type of player that bets his flush draws then there's a good chance he has made a flush because that's exactly the way he would have played it. His half-sized pot bet could be that he has a flush but is afraid of the paired board, or he's made a full house and wants you to call. Or he could be full of it.

I put him on 2 pair. The bets you made would put most off a flush draw except the lord most high of donks.

The only thing you're beating here is a total bluff or a horribly played overpair. Your action essentially depends on what you think the chances villain has either are. Has he been caught repping flushes before? Has he played overpairs so passively before, not really taking the initiative until the river? Is he a generally 'good' or 'bad' player?

I think a very good player could lay this down with a significant read, but if all I have to go on is he is an 'action player', then it's a call.

Raising the river is obviously spewing chips (very little that you're beating calls you and you will hate your life if he pushes back), so with info given call > fold >>>>>>>> raise.

you gotta fold that w/ no reads

$43.25 in the pot, $15 to call - need to be 74% certain I'm beaten to fold. Or, I only need to win 26% of the time.

Unless he's a maniac, he's not making this river bet with a hand that you can beat. And you don't have any reads.

Really, what hand can you beat that a regular player makes this bet with?

Any solid jack has you beat, flush has you beat, set has you beat...

Bombjack said:

$43.25 in the pot, $15 to call - need to be 74% certain I'm beaten to fold. Or, I only need to win 26% of the time.

Click to expand...

I have to say that in the heat of the moment, I probably call this too.

On the other hand, what hand that beats me with on the river is he calling with on the turn?

KJ / AJ / JT I'd expect him to either bet or check-raise the turn. It doesn't seem very consistent to check-call the turn then suddenly lead into the river. Likewise 77 or 33. 89 for a gutshot straight? I don't think so.

I think it's Flush draw only? Maybe I should have bet a bit bigger on the turn to deny this odds, but heads-up, he's only got two hearts 5% of the time.

Or he could have TT, which he might be calling with.

Does he have these hands 74% of the time?

Beginner question here, BJ, but why not a bigger bet on the turn to increase the pressure and indicate that maybe the second J on the table improved your hand? Or, do you not want to suggest that it improved your hand in hopes of keeping him in?

I'm just thinking, if I'm him and I see a bigger bet from you on the turn than on the flop, I might fold my draw(s) or TT.

For example, last night I kept leading the same amount on the turn as the flop when the turn gave me the nut flush, just to hide that I've got the flush, but that's only because I want to keep people in and I had the nut flush.

NineLions said:

Beginner question here, BJ, but why not a bigger bet on the turn to increase the pressure and indicate that maybe the second J on the table improved your hand? Or, do you not want to suggest that it improved your hand in hopes of keeping him in?

I'm just thinking, if I'm him and I see a bigger bet from you on the turn than on the flop, I might fold my draw(s) or TT.

For example, last night I kept leading the same amount on the turn as the flop when the turn gave me the nut flush, just to hide that I've got the flush, but that's only because I want to keep people in and I had the nut flush.

Click to expand...

You bet because you want your opponent to make a mistake.
- If you're behind you can bet to make your opponent fold, which is a mistake
- If you're ahead, you should bet enough so that calling is not +EV, i.e. by calling they're less likely to make a hand that beats you than the implied odds are giving them. But you if you're ahead, you DON'T usually want them to fold, because folding would be the correct +EV play for them.

So if you think you're ahead, you need to bet enough to give them the incorrect odds given their likely holdings, but not so much that they make the right decision and fold.

I can't just assume they're on a flush draw when playing heads-up. There will be 2 of the same suit on the board 60% of the time on the flop, and 90% of the time on the turn. It's much more +EV for me to bet smaller and get the lesser holdings to call.

Mm, okay, you lost me on your reply.

I was asking, why not bet more on the turn than what you did bet. Are you saying you didn't bet more because if he's got you beat, then it's correct for him to call because he has +EV? So if he calls, you should fold?

No I mean if I bet more, he's more likely to fold a hand like A7 or 88. I could make a big bet to make a flush draw -EV, but 95% of the time my opponent isn't on a flush draw, and probably folds his hand to a large bet, which would be the correct thing for him to do. My hand is strong so I want to keep him in, and make him make the mistake of calling a bet.

I don't buy that he has you beat before the river... what is the point of not re-raising if he does? This $15 bet on a flush card is an easy call. He has maybe a pair, maybe 2 pair on the river but I doubt it.

Call every time

It is way too easy to bet at the third heart, whoever does that has an advantage because people fear the flush like no other draw. It beats so much, and is easy to represent with a bet.

I really don't buy what this guy is trying to sell

so how did it go? did he turn over a pocket pair or A 7 ?

He doesnt believe you have the jack so his 7 has to be good

RESULTZ TIME

Dealing River []
Villain bets $15
Bombjack calls $15
Taking Rake of $2 from pot 1
Villain shows [ ]
Villain has Two Pairs: Jacks, 7s
Bombjack shows [ ]
Bombjack has Three of a Kind: Jacks
Bombjack wins $56.50 with: Three of a Kind: Jacks

Wow.

Well I hope you noted him down....

Damn... K7 I was off

nice hand