Originally Posted by NineLions
Beginner question here, BJ, but why not a bigger bet on the turn to increase the pressure and indicate that maybe the second J on the table improved your hand? Or, do you not want to suggest that it improved your hand in hopes of keeping him in?
I'm just thinking, if I'm him and I see a bigger bet from you on the turn than on the flop, I might fold my draw(s) or TT.
For example, last night I kept leading the same amount on the turn as the flop when the turn gave me the nut flush, just to hide that I've got the flush, but that's only because I want to keep people in and I had the nut flush.
You bet because you want your opponent to make a mistake.
- If you're behind you can bet to make your opponent fold, which is a mistake
- If you're ahead, you should bet enough so that calling is not +EV, i.e. by calling they're less likely to make a hand that beats you than the implied odds are giving them. But you if you're ahead, you DON'T usually want them to fold, because folding would be the correct +EV play for them.
So if you think you're ahead, you need to bet enough to give them the incorrect odds given their likely holdings, but not so much that they make the right decision and fold.
I can't just assume they're on a flush draw when playing heads-up. There will be 2 of the same suit on the board 60% of the time on the flop, and 90% of the time on the turn. It's much more +EV for me to bet smaller and get the lesser holdings to call.