Set of aces versus possible flush

R

Reducto

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Stacks:
* UTG+1 with $7.20
* MP1 with $10.75
* MP2 with $11.50
* MP3 with $9.50
* CO with $11.35
* BTN with $3.90
* SB with $11.35
* BB with $9.50
* UTG with $2.00

Blinds: $0.00/$0.00
Site: full tilt poker
* * Dealt to MP3:A♠ A♦
* * Sklansky group 1
Preflop:
* * 4 players fold.
Hero raises to $0.40
* * 3 players fold.
* * BB calls [$0.30]
* * Total folds this street: 7
* * Potsize: $0.85
Flop:
* * A♣ Q♥ 7♣
* * BB checks Hero bets [$0.50]
* * BB calls [$0.50]
* * Potsize: $1.85
Turn:
* * 8♣
* * BB checks Hero bets [$0.80]
* * BB calls [$0.80]
* * Potsize: $3.45
River:
* * K♥
* * BB bets [$7.80, and is all in]

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Lay it on me here - Should I have bet harder? The table was pretty tight and this player in particular had done little raising before this. What did the all in likely indicate?
 
pantin007

pantin007

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i think i bet more like 1.25 on the turn and i dont think i can fold this river
 
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baudib1

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Flop bet is good, I might even pot the turn but $1.25 is probably optimal.

I agree I don't think I can fold this. I think a donkey JT straight is possible as well as a flush but there are still plenty of hands we beat.
 
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ELF-M

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When I am looking at a posible straight or flush, I may not over value just top pair but, with trips I will push hard to make them call bad odds or fold. I would rather take a little now, when I know I am ahead, than get beat on latter streets. (Even though you had 7 outs on the flop, and 10 on the turn, to improve to full house or quads.) A pot bet on the flop, may have given you a better read on what he was holding. A call could have meant maybe A-x, 7-7 etc. (unless you knew he was a calling station. and if he's not too agressive, a check calling on the scare card can save you some chips sometimes, especially if he didn't hit and thinks you might be slow playing) Sometimes "bear gets you" but you can't let off on the flop, unless you have a monster. "A-k" with a A-A-K flop" actually had that, and almost felt 2 seconds simpathy for the guy who lost his chips with K-K

P.S. Since you observed him as fairly tight and most likely didn't see him making several possible steal attempts, I would put him on a Jc-10c or Qc-Jc and worried you might be holding a Kc and not wanting you to see the river in case it was another club.
 
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R

Reducto

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Elf - the all in bet was after the K came on the river.
 
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ELF-M

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in the above post I was thinking the all in was on the turn and it might get re-edited, but if not, the story the cards told would make you think he was most likely holding A-Kc
 
Benjammn

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I'm pretty sure he doesn't have the flush, mainly because he doesn't do any info gathering with his check on the turn. If he had the flush, firstly he would have tried to see if you had the flush as well, and secondly he would have tried to get more money out of you during both the turn and the river if he had the winning flush (KcXc). Checking and then shoving just doesn't make much sense in that light. I honestly put him on KK, and he probably thought you had an A, which is why we was cautious on the flop/turn. The final K made a set and he thought he could get the most money this way.
 
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baudib1

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If he has teh KK I'll eat my hat.
I think his range is entirely bluffs (like KJ, KT, Ax), flushes, JT, 77 or QQ and 2 prs (like KQ).
 
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baudib1

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I think this is a pretty pessimistic range and we have 73% equity here. This range contains a lot of flushes as well as all the sets, even the unlikely ones, the straights, most of the likely 2 pair combos and only a few total bluffs (he probably thinks he's good with all of his sets/2 pairs).

Board: Ac Qh 7c 8c Kh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 73.171% 73.17% 00.00% 60 0.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 26.829% 26.83% 00.00% 22 0.00 { KK-QQ, 88-77, A7s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, Tc9c, 9c8c, 8c7c, 7c6c, AJo+, KTo+, JTo }
 
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WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Step 1: Snap-call.
B: Fist-pump.
3rd: Count-$$.
 
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baudib1

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Even if we remove almost all the total bluffs from the KT/KJ/QT/QJ combos (meaning he's only there with broadways that are flushes, straights or 2 pair), we're still at 60% equity, so I don't think we can ever fold.

Board: Ac Qh 7c 8c Kh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.714% 60.71% 00.00% 34 0.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 39.286% 39.29% 00.00% 22 0.00 { KK-QQ, 88-77, A7s+, KQs, KcJc, KcTc, QcJc, QcTc, JTs, Tc9c, 9c8c, 8c7c, 7c6c, AJo+, KQo, JTo }
 
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bodogmaster

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i had a hand on bodog once where i got a royal flush and the guy next to me had it too i was so pissed lol
 
The Shrog

The Shrog

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Yea, bet more on the turn..stats on opponent?
 
VerbalKint

VerbalKint

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Online, You always get guys doing the all-in bet on the river with a flush on the board. I usuall hit the TIME button and cuss but I`ve seen guys have the flush. I`ve used this move a few times against more aggressive opponents cause it always tilts them or you get the snap-call and collect. Usually you just scare people off and you waste the value bet opportunity.
 
spranger

spranger

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If villain could be doing this with something like a KQ 2pair, a weaker ace 2pair, etc. then the river probably has to be a call, but don't be surprised when he turns over J10. The smooth call on the turn makes it look like the double-gutted belly buster straight draw. Possibility of the flush but I'd bet on the straight or 2pair.
 
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