Here are my thoughts:
Pre-flop: One limper, I'm on the button. This is basically a blind steal, but 4-handed you have to raise with suited connectors in position because
a) they're good no-limit hands
b) you're not going to get pairs and big Aces often enough
c) you need to disguise your raises with premium hands.
There's a limper, which indicates a weak player with a weak hand, so I'm not too worried about him, and I have position whatever happens.
The small blind re-raises, and there's a case to be made for giving up the hand here. However, it's a minimum re-raise, and the pot gives me the
odds to see a flop, with some extra information.
Flop: Folding top pair here is weak, so I call, waiting to re-evaluate based on his actions on the turn. An overpair is definitely a possibility based on his actions pre-flop, but if behind I'm still 20% to outdraw him.
Turn: I was a bit surprised when checked to here by an aggressive player, which led me to think he had just overcards. I bet 3/4 pot thinking I had the best hand, and not wanting to be outdrawn by a flush draw or overcards.
However I think a smaller bet would have been more appropriate for these reasons:
a) If he just has overcards and his flop bet was just continuation, he'll probably fold to a 1/3 - 1/2 pot bet anyway
b) I don't want to be playing a big pot with just a pair of Nines. Playing loose-aggressive in short-handed cash games is correct strategy, but it's mainly for picking up a lot of small pots, and I only want to play big pots with a big hand
c) With such a large bet, I limit my
bluffing equity on the river. I have less than the size of the pot left, he gets good odds as played to call the
bluff on the river
d) By making a small bet here, I can avoid facing a large bet by him on the river which may or may not be a bluff, and I have the option to check it down for free
I don't think this bet is too big however if I'm repping the flush, because
a) as pointed out, people rarely believe you, so you can bet big, and
b) a non-nut flush doesn't want to be outdrawn cheaply
River: When he calls the turn bet, I can be sure he has either an overpair or AcX. In the case of AcX, I should check and hope I have the best hand. If he has an overpair AA, KK or JJ, I need to evaluate whether I can get him to fold by pushing. There are a lot of hands he has to fear: a flush, a set, or maybe T9 or Q9 for 2 pair. KJ for the straight doesn't really fit the betting patterns.
I think the main problem here is that I don't have a specific read on this player to say that he's capable or likely to fold an overpair.
So ideally, I think I'd make a smaller bet on the turn and check down the river, without a specific read.
My stats for the session are 26/19/3.5
...... and for the results-oriented, he called with AA (no club).
