River fold?

9 max 50/$1 blinds

Folds to MP player 100+ BB who opens to $3
Folds to hero on button with AdAs 100+bb
Hero makes it $10
BB folds and MP calls
Flop Ac Kd 8h
Pot $20.50
Mp checks Hero bets $8 mp calls
pot $36.50
Turn 9c mp checks hero bets $25 mp tank calls
River 4c pot $86.50
MP leads all in $84

My thinking is what do I beat now that would take this line ?

On the flop with a rainbow board I down bet having a large portion of the board. On the turn with the flush draw now on board I went with a larger size to charge any drawing hands mp tank called then shoved when the draws got there. I folded thinking I don't beat any value hands

I think your preflop bet size with pocket aces is a good idea. On this flop the texture is not dangerous for your range, so a large bet could fold worse hands and you would not get lower value combinations to continue. Probably the size of your cbet was acceptable, although a little less would be better, unless you expect an important continuity factor for V, in which case your action would be optimal for this place.
On turn 9c it is a street that favors your range. Fundamentally because after our second barrel, we can achieve the continuity of semi bluffs that will seek to progress on the river.
We are happy here because we only lock a single value (AA) while beating all other possible sets on this texture.
The flush line was completed on the river but we are fine because we did not block the nuts here and now the villain could to turn bluff his failed draw, for example with a Kc or an Ac. V has combos that didn't improve like Q-J; K-T; J-T; Q-K; K-J, and these combos also have enough ability to bluff here. From our side we have the top of our range and this is a standard call if we choose to apply a balanced game.
Greetings.

No reads or stats on V? In a 3 bet pot with the Ac on board V should not have that many flush combos. I'd look at this as a bottom set type of hand and call off vs the 3-6 flush combos that can flat call a 3 bet OOP, float flop, and go runner runner. If it were a massive overbet maybe it would be closer but it's just less than a pot sized bet. I think we have to pay this off and make a note if he has the flush. Further, I don't think hands like KcXc are tanking this turn. They may think about raising but they are just never folding. Any hand with the Kc can take this line since V knows Hero never has a flush here in a 3 bet pot. Sets can also take this line, along with any bluffs or spaz that V has.

I would call. I think he would't call after flop with a draw. The chance of he could win this hand was if he had KcXc. It was possible, but I don't see calling large bets with that A in the board. I would put a worse set or two pairs in his hand, or even an AQ.

You beat basically anything but a flush on the river, the combos of flushes in villains range are minimal, KQcc,KJcc,KTcc,QJcc,QTcc, JTcc and maybe 87cc. that is 7 combos, he could have

-99 turned set (3combos)
-88 a set (3 combos)
- 98s 2-pair ( 2combos)

your getting 2:1 so you only need to be good 1 out of 3, there is a chance you could have better set or beating a two-pair,



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Snap call. There's only three scenarios that make sense here

1) Villain flopped a monster and was trying to trap you, either two pair or a set. You beat 100% of that range. This by far makes the most sense by the betting pattern.

2) Villain called your pre-flop three-bet OOP with Kx of clubs, didn't want to let go of second pair and backdoored his way into a flush. You are beat by this, but I think it's way less likely than scenario 1.

3) Villain did something that makes no sense because we're giving him too much credit. We always have to consider the possibility that the villain has gone way outside the norm and is trying to do something that doesn't make sense relative to his actions. That includes the really random backdoor flushes that don't involve a paired K, but it also includes naked bluffs, weird two pairs, and all kinds of Ax, so in the "villain has gone off the grid" scenarios, we're still favored imo.

Easy call. You only have to win ~1/3rd of the time for the calling to be profitable, and I think you win way more often than that.

caracaski220

Truth is I would have to know the player. He called preflop and the on the flop only a backdoor flush draw. I would call him because my thinking is he wasnt going for the flush from the beginning. I f he is a smart player ,he showed so you would put him on the flush and make you fold top hand.

on the river call, we have a very strong hand to fold.

The rest of the hand is well played including sizing, but the river has to be a call. You are not thrilled about the card or action, but your hand is just to strong to fold for the reasons, many others have explained already.

I don`t think there is flashes in his range because he calling 3bet pre and calling flop and turn.

I did not have any reads on villan as he wasn't at table long and left shortly after. Maybe after reading your comments a call was in order but I just thought in the moment I was beat and he had got there

Ianmacca99 said:

I did not have any reads on villan as he wasn't at table long and left shortly after. Maybe after reading your comments a call was in order but I just thought in the moment I was beat and he had got there

Click to expand...

No worries this is, what hand reviews are for. Also its not like, he NEVER has a flush here, so folding did not lose you enormous amounts of EV. However besides the obvious "he just got there" explanation for a donk bet, there are two others, which make total sense, and which has already been somewhat mentioned by others:

1) He flopped a monster and decided to let you hang yourself by just check-calling the flop. KK, 88 or AK fit in this category. He tanked on the turn, because he was considering to get it in now but decided to continue to let you hang yourself. When backdoor flush came on the river, he changed his mind, because he thought, you were more likely to call than bet with a worse hand, if he checked to you.

2) He flopped a gutshot with BDFD and decided, that he got just about a good enough price to continue on the flop. On the turn he thought about giving up but decided he could continue, if he had a plan of representing certain cards on the river, even they did not help him. Hands like QJ/QT/JT of diamonds or hearts fit in this category and are pretty reasonable bluffs for him to show up with.

So in short he can have worse hands here for value, in which case you became the victim of an accidental value bluff. Or he can have "jack high like a boss" and be completely owning you, when you lay down top set in a 3-bet pot, just because a flush is possible