Was this the right play?

nvdispatcher · Jun 19, 2007

I was playing 1 to 2 no limit a few days ago. I was about 2 behind the button. About 2 people called and the rest folded up to me. I was sitting with Ah-6h and raised it up to 10$ (normally not a raising hand) and everyone folded to the big blind, who flat called, everyone after him folded. It's heads up. Flop comes Qh 6d 2h. He bets out 25$. This guy is an extremely loose player who see's just about any flop that's under 15$ dollars regardless of position. I have middle pair with top kicker and the nut flush draw. I ponder it for a while and then come over the top of him with an additional 65$ (the remainder of his stack). He calls. He turns over the Ac-Qc. Needless to say I didn't catch up and lost the pot. When in this kind of situation should I be just flat calling trying to catch my flush at the cheapest possible price. Folding because I only have middle pair and he is betting into the flop. I raised because of 1) it gave me a chance to win right there if he thought I had flopped 2 pair or a set and 2) this guy is such a loose player I honestly figured him for a bluff even though i had no tell to verify that-- it was just based on past hands and experiences with this guy... What's the right move?q

tiltboy · Jun 19, 2007

I would not have made this move here. I know he is loose but he called an $8 raise out of position and bet $25 into a $25 pot out of position these actions together tell me he has definitely and his bet is an aggressive move to protect his hand.

I would have walked away from this becuase i wouldnt want to be playing a pot for a min of $75 with mid pair and a draw. This is not profitable in the long run.

shame you didnt catch the flush.

bhasin · Jun 19, 2007

also ure not gettin pot odds ure gettin 2:1 pot odds and the odds of making ur flush or hiting a set of 6's is 5:4 (underdog) u have 45% of winning, therefore mathmatically u shoudlnt call. also another mistake is that u went all in. if u no u could be behind semi bluffing all ur chips is wrong. u should have raised to find out wer u were or just flat called as u suggested. personally i wouldve called.

alan1983 · Jun 19, 2007

I think you did the right thing and i do that everytime if i was you.

You have 9 flush outs, 2 sixes, and since you said hes loose preflop you dont necessarily put him on ace so aces might be good 2, thats 14 outs = youre a favourite to win.

And since you said you thought he might be bluffing, then thats ane xtra edge too.

You really have nothing to feel bad about here.

tiltboy · Jun 19, 2007

So you consider his calling of $8 preflop and pot bet on the flop (out of position) to be the right time to make this move?

Pre flop he may be loose but thats not to say he doesnt have a hand and the fact he put out this bet out of position would suggest he has something. I would at best be looking at 11 outs and not 14 which doesnt make this a necessarily good move.

your basically moving all in on nut flush draws irrespective of what your opponent is telling you. If he does bluff that aggressively then i would wait to catch im out with a stronger hand.

If you were absolutely certain he had no A you could make this move but i would not have made it at this point.

joeeagles · Jun 19, 2007

Ok, this is a really good post post because what comes in play here are implied odds. You're getting 2 to 1 to make this call, and he has $65 behind him. Before getting into any other consideration you need to figure you're I.O. here. I'm not exactly good at this so I'll leave it up to those who are. But from this point of view this hand is extremely interesting because villain started it with 50 BB and that has to be considered before anything else, given his pot size bet ($25) on the flop.

In general though, I think raising with your hand is the right play, at least in cash games for sure (keep in mind though, we need to reevaluate all this in terms of implied odds you're going to get, so it might not be right). You don't know how many outs you'll have, it could be as low as 9, if he has a set, or as many as 14. The raise, again in general, is correct play also considering you're facing a LAG and you're in position.

More to come on this hand, let me try to figure if its +EV or not, in the mean time someone else might help us figure it out (I don't play much cash games at all).

aliengenius · Jun 19, 2007

This is a classic semi bluff. Calling here is pretty weak, unless you think he will check the turn (not likely with tptk and two to the flush). Also, calling and hitting your flush will probably not make you anymore money.

Raise becasue:
1. We might have the best hand (say he called w 72o to be cute, the lead when he paired, assuming you had something like AK).
2. We might get him to fold the best hand (Q w a weak kicker).
3. Even if called we have a lot of chances to win (the definition of a semibluff), potentially 14 outs which makes us about even money.

With the fold equity calculated in the raise here is a pretty standard play.

joeeagles · Jun 19, 2007

aliengenius said:
With the fold equity calculated in the raise here is a pretty standard play.

Lol yes, AG is right, its about FE and not about implied odds.

I.O. would come into play here only if we smooth call his raise, which I agree is very weak, but if we raise him all-in (which we should with our hand and considering opponent is LAG) then all we need to worry about is if there is Fold Equity. So as played by nvdispatcher was the correct move.

Good post AG, thanks for clearing that.

bubbasbestbabe · Jun 19, 2007

tiltboy said:
So you consider his calling of $8 preflop and pot bet on the flop (out of position) to be the right time to make this move?

Pre flop he may be loose but thats not to say he doesnt have a hand and the fact he put out this bet out of position would suggest he has something. I would at best be looking at 11 outs and not 14 which doesnt make this a necessarily good move.

your basically moving all in on nut flush draws irrespective of what your opponent is telling you. If he does bluff that aggressively then i would wait to catch im out with a stronger hand.

If you were absolutely certain he had no A you could make this move but i would not have made it at this point.

And just out of curiosity, you've never made a bet like this? You've never chased a flush? You've never raised someone on the table who you think is trying to steal the pot? And just how many outs is good for you?

He made the right call. It just didn't pan out. Just like we've seen As busted by 2s.

stormswa · Jun 19, 2007

Ah6h is 42.93% to win this hand.

if he didnt have the ace and just like KQ
then Ah6h is 51.62%
against set we are 24%
against 2 pair we are 32%

so we need to put him on a hand here do we think a set is going to lead out after we showed aggression preflop? I doubt it from these guys so im ruling that out. 2 pair will lead out and top pair will lead out so im putting him on that range meaning we are somewhere between 32% to 51% here and I think we have fold equity also.

Implied odds do not matter because we are either pushing or folding here. IM not making this playe every time but it is fine play.

F Paulsson · Jun 19, 2007

stormswa said:
if he didnt have the ace and just like KQ
then Ah6h is 51.62%
against set we are 24%
against 2 pair we are 32%

... not to mention he could have a flush draw himself, or K6 or a pocket pair that didn't hit a set, or...

He could have a lot of hands that we already beat. Folding 9 clean outs (with a chance for as many as six more, and a non-dismissable percent that we're still ahead) to a pot sized bet when we're in position is not good.

Shoving isn't bad, if nothing else than as a balancing play. If we can get a hand like 7-7 to fold if we shove, it's awesome. If we get called, we're in good shape against most hands except for a set.

Stormswa: I'm not sure which two pair you put him on that we're only 32% versus. Against two pair, we have at least 12 clean outs, with a chance of 14. That's better than 32%.

Many have dismissed calling, and I don't think we should be dismissing it so easily. We will often get a free card on the turn and many other times he will bet into us when we make a hand (trips, two pair, flush). I wrote about flush draws in no limit cash games awhile back in the blog. We have a good chunk of implied odds or bluffing equity later on in this hand to fold in position.

Position, position, position.

... Position.

-FP(osition).

stormswa · Jun 19, 2007

F Paulsson;561660 Stormswa: I'm not sure which two pair you put him on that we're only 32% versus. Against two pair said:
I didnt put him on anything I was just giving all the possible things he could possibly have and giving our odds for each one. I cant just put people on hands from a hand history. I can make a educated guess but without sitting there I have no clue what his range is.

I dont like calling here though, not with him only have $65 or so behind. If we miss turn he is going to shove and I dont want to be in that spot, by shoving we at least have the chance he will fold but if brick comes on turn there is no way he is folding here I think.

if we were both deeper stacked then I wouldnt mind that call though.

F Paulsson · Jun 19, 2007

stormswa said:
I didnt put him on anything I was just giving all the possible things he could possibly have and giving our odds for each one. I cant just put people on hands from a hand history. I can make a educated guess but without sitting there I have no clue what his range is.

No, I mean... If he has Q6 (for instance), our chance to win isn't 32%, it's much higher. So I'm not sure which two pair he could have that we only have 32% to win against.

stormswa · Jun 19, 2007

F Paulsson said:
No, I mean... If he has Q6 (for instance), our chance to win isn't 32%, it's much higher. So I'm not sure which two pair he could have that we only have 32% to win against.

oh yea,

I got you now, I just randomly put it in the calculator whops, think I put KQ even though there is no king outs

good point and nice catch. ok lets rule out 2 pair then shall we?

tiltboy · Jun 20, 2007

bubbasbestbabe said:
And just out of curiosity, you've never made a bet like this? You've never chased a flush? You've never raised someone on the table who you think is trying to steal the pot? And just how many outs is good for you?

He made the right call. It just didn't pan out. Just like we've seen As busted by 2s.

I have made bets like this but not under these circumstances, i just think a combination of factors dont make this particular move ideal.

I try to look at hands on a 'hand by hand' basis rather than a rule of thumb for particular situations. In this scenario the range of hands i would put him on would include A-Q and thats why i said if absoultely certain the other guy hasnt got an A then this call is ok.

I admittedley dont know as much as some of the guys on posting on this topic these comments are valuable to me because it has given me something to think about which will hopefully develop my game and make me more money

Threads13 · Jun 20, 2007

I believe one thing that hasn't been mentioned is that this is a loose player. I wouldn't expect this guy to fold to a raise.

Oh... and... Hi.

joeeagles · Jun 20, 2007

tiltboy said:
I have made bets like this but not under these circumstances, i just think a combination of factors dont make this particular move ideal.

I try to look at hands on a 'hand by hand' basis rather than a rule of thumb for particular situations. In this scenario the range of hands i would put him on would include A-Q and thats why i said if absoultely certain the other guy hasnt got an A then this call is ok.

I admittedley dont know as much as some of the guys on posting on this topic these comments are valuable to me because it has given me something to think about which will hopefully develop my game and make me more money

I understand your point and its ok to express your opinion and compare it with others. In general, what you need to consider here are 2 things.

1.) While you should always attempt to put your opponent on a range of hands, there is no way you can be "sure" he has AQ here, considering also he's LAG, and the fact you can suspect it shouldn't stop you from making a move. You can very rarely, so early in the hand, be "absolutely certain".

2.) The raise is justified by a combination of factors already explained by other posters, and fact is that if you get called, on that board, whatever villain flips over (worst case a set, 2nd worse AQ) you're never drawing dead here. It'd be better if he didn't have AQ because it reduces your outs, but you can still win this and even if behind, you're not a huge dog.

Its fine that you look at situations on "hand by hand" basis, I don't think that's wrong. In this scenario, I'm not suggesting this play every time, but against a LAG I think I would. Remember, he only has to fold here a certain percentage of times for this to be +EV, and his $25 bet on the flop doesn't necessarily mean strength. The fact he's LAG doesn't mean he'll call for sure either, because the reraise was putting him all-in, so there was no room left for him to call the reraise and attempt to steal it on the turn. He's all-in so he needs the best hand to win, and that will slow down any LAG. Also, as pointed out by FP, the all-in raise could make him fold a hand like 77, 88 or 99, which is a great bonus.

Was this the right play?

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