Razz - marginal hand vs villain brick

Villain has been fairly active, betting out through a lot of bricks and hidden pairs, and occasionally showing down some dubious nonsense over the past 50 hands.

I've been squeaky tight on the other hand, haven't seen many 4th streets and have been routinely folding low door cards. So in theory if anyone's paying attention, they should be figuring me for a decent hand when I complete.

So, onto the hand. Yes, I know it's marginal and it's my own fault for getting involved with it in the first place - but going on the above information and the door cards on display, I thought it was worth a bash. Villain is the only one really likely to call me, and even if he does, I don't think it's necessarily the end of the world.

The real head scratcher is 5th street - I make a (very) marginal hand and the villain bricks, but continues anyway, then improves on 6th and leads into my ugly, ugly brick.

Do I call it down, hoping to catch a smooth nine on 7th, do I abandon the hand here, should I have abandoned earlier, or do I call him a lying sack of cheese and show down a ten-nine?

full tilt poker Game #7092133957: Table Pennwood - $0.25/$0.50 Ante $0.05 - Limit Razz - 2:45:17 ET - 2008/07/05
Seat 1: PD99 ($6.95)
Seat 2: Donald Leroy ($9.30)
Seat 3: Crayfish23 ($3)
Seat 4: OzExorcist ($9)
Seat 5: widowmakr0 ($10.25)
Seat 6: William Rutt ($16.15)
Seat 7: Defresh2k1 ($9.90)
Seat 8: rotete ($4.90)
widowmakr0 antes $0.05
PD99 antes $0.05
rotete antes $0.05
Donald Leroy antes $0.05
Crayfish23 antes $0.05
Defresh2k1 antes $0.05
OzExorcist antes $0.05
William Rutt antes $0.05
*** 3RD STREET ***
Dealt to PD99 9♦
Dealt to Donald Leroy J♦
Dealt to Crayfish23 Q♠
Dealt to OzExorcist [9c 5d] 3♠
Dealt to widowmakr0 5♣
Dealt to William Rutt [Tc]
Dealt to Defresh2k1 7♠
Dealt to rotete 9♥
Crayfish23 is high with Q♠
Crayfish23 brings in for $0.10
OzExorcist completes it to $0.25
widowmakr0 calls $0.25
William Rutt folds
Defresh2k1 folds
rotete has 15 seconds left to act
rotete folds
PD99 folds
Donald Leroy folds
Crayfish23 folds
*** 4TH STREET ***
Dealt to OzExorcist [9c 5d 3s] A♥
Dealt to widowmakr0 5♣ 6♣
OzExorcist bets $0.25
widowmakr0 calls $0.25
*** 5TH STREET ***
Dealt to OzExorcist [9c 5d 3s Ah] [Td]
Dealt to widowmakr0 [5c 6c] K♥
OzExorcist bets $0.50
widowmakr0 calls $0.50
*** 6TH STREET ***
Dealt to OzExorcist [9c 5d 3s Ah Td] K♣
Dealt to widowmakr0 [5c 6c Kh] 9♠
widowmakr0 bets $0.50
OzExorcist... wants to know what Kathy Liebert would do

3rd street open is fine given both how live your hand is and that it's a high-ante game. A smooth 9 is nothing to sneeze at in high ante games, especially in situations like this where you rep a lot of strength vs. a fairly weak board behind you.

Given the read on the villain I don't think you can argue for folding 6th street, the pots just too large and you have a live draw and possibly the best hand. You're obviously showing down any 9 if you improve, so the only question is whether or not to show down the T9 if you brick. It's definitely marginal, but I'd lean towards calling just because of the read you have.

So the plan would be flat call and be prepared to show down a T9?

Wait for any other thoughts then I'll get to results

OzExorcist said:

I've been squeaky tight on the other hand, haven't seen many 4th streets and have been routinely folding low door cards. So in theory if anyone's paying attention, they should be figuring me for a decent hand when I complete.

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It's much more likely that he isn't paying attention, and even more likely that he isn't analysing hand as much as you. Surely he's got a 9 already based on his 5th street call and his previous calls - you could put him on rubbish if he was betting into you, but he's been calling YOU in the previous streets, and would he do that with 2 hidden bricks? A 9 is the best you are drawing too, and a 7 or an 8 wont be enough for you so you are probably looking at catching a 2,4 or a 6, and even then you won't win if he hits a similar card.

Yes you have reads, and yes you have pot odds, but i'd prefer to keep it simple here and make the more obvious move which is to fold and save yourself the last dollar.

^way too nitty imo, just a bad bad fold imo
the best possible hand a villain like the one u described has is a 9-8 low, if he is as bad as u say he is, he raises 3 to a 7 low pre 4th and even 3 to a 8 low ( which makes 9-8 low very unlikely) and maybe 9 (bit of a stretch), because he isnt smart enuff to slow play
he is probably betting here because ur hit 2 bad cards and is hoping ur willing to lay the hand down, he thinks ur so tight that even tho he is showing garbage u will fold, if he has a 10-9 low ( which is what im suspecting) u still have him as he would have 10-9-6 while u have 10-9-5 so i think u have the best hand but this is not a raising situation, this is just a call on 6th and call his bet on 7th

pantin007 said:

^way too nitty imo, just a bad bad fold imo
the best possible hand a villain like the one u described has is a 9-8 low, if he is as bad as u say he is, he raises 3 to a 7 low pre 4th and even 3 to a 8 low ( which makes 9-8 low very unlikely) and maybe 9 (bit of a stretch), because he isnt smart enuff to slow play
he is probably betting here because ur hit 2 bad cards and is hoping ur willing to lay the hand down, he thinks ur so tight that even tho he is showing garbage u will fold, if he has a 10-9 low ( which is what im suspecting) u still have him as he would have 10-9-6 while u have 10-9-5 so i think u have the best hand but this is not a raising situation, this is just a call on 6th and call his bet on 7th

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We are going to have to disagree - If opponent is betting into you that is one thing - he has got 2 good open card showing by 4th street (though not as good as OZ) and has regained lead (of sorts) on 6th Street. He would be entitled to pound away to try and get the fold (which is usually how Razz hand are won). This ISN'T what has happened here though.

OZ has been making the running on 3rd, 4th and 5th street - look at the action that has happened up to 5th street, OZ has bet 3 times now, and has Ace, 3, 10 showing. Opponent has called 3 times and has 5, 6, King showing. You can't possibly say that opponent has got a card 10 or higher behind, even the very worst players would be folding here surely after drawing worse 3 times out of 3? He could only reasonably be drawing to 6 high here, and he's gone ahead 6th street by hitting the 9.

It's a shame OZ has got a 9 behind, but he has, and that means he's drawing to a 9 at best. I wouldn't want to be trying to hit a card which may not give me the win.

Could you explain again why you are putting opponent on 10-9 low, cos i don't see it?

Villain has been fairly active, betting out through a lot of bricks and hidden pairs, and occasionally showing down some dubious nonsense over the past 50 hands.

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this is why, dont u think if someone who is this aggro with garbage would not bet his 6 lows and 7 lows? he is betting as he is showing the best hand and is hoping the OZ folds, thats how most of these fish play

pantin007 said:

this is why, dont u think if someone who is this aggro with garbage would not bet his 6 lows and 7 lows? he is betting as he is showing the best hand and is hoping the OZ folds, thats how most of these fish play

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He isn't betting it out though, and that is a big, big distinction in this hand. He isn't playing the board and just pounding out until OZ folds (standard in Razz), he has been calling bets, and that changes the hand completely.

If your analysis is correct must have called a 50 cent bet on 5th street, holding K, 10, 5, 6 and one other, against an opponent who has bet 3 times with A, 3, 10, and 2 unseen, and then bet on 6th street into a fair pot, with 10 high against opponent who has shown no sign of folding and should have a better than 10 high if it goes to showdown. If he does this, then why bother analysing hands? Just call him down, it's like playing Razz in a HORSE game when your opponent doesn't understand the rules - just play on and see if you have a valid hand, no point wasting time analysing it.

If you give him any credit at all, and you analyse the hand, then he has got a 9 low now, and you need to catch to win (and you aren't guaranteed to win of you do catch). I suspect that the fact that OZ has bothered posting this hand means that something out of the ordinary is going to happen, but I think playing simply against even a complete fish would be more +EV long term than getting tangled up in these hands.

6 to 1 odds to call this bet, i think it is +ev to call this down down against a player like this especially with the board he is showing

pantin007 said:

6 to 1 odds to call this bet

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This bet, but you've already presumably resigned yourself to calling the river bet, another 50 cents, so in reality it's 3.5/1 - you'll be betting $1 to win $4.50 pot. 12 outs, but opponent presumably has similar to improve again? Maybe calling down is +ev, but i'd like better odds and a better draw to continue here.

It's a very good point you raise Rob, and it made me go back and look over the whole session again re: the villain's calling patterns vs his betting patterns.

Looking at the times where he's just calling bets, as opposed to leading out, there were a couple of times over the course of 80-odd hands where the villain called through bricks or with what seemed to be hidden pairs, just to fold to the final bet on seventh. By far the more common occurence though was that he'd peel on fourth then fold on fifth to another bet.

So he was peeling a lot of fourth streets, but wasn't flat calling much beyond that (I don't think he ever raised, BTW, aside from third street completions). Which is what really makes me scratch my head - he caught the worst possible brick on fifth, something which has made him fold every other hand I've seen him play, but he decides to call this one.

I think I've just learned something new to watch out for - cheers

Any more discussion before we do results?

Oh, and one other question: anyone think there would've been any merit in trying for a check-raise on fourth?

I wouldn't CR 4th; I think it's fine as played and against most villains, I'm folding 6th. You must improve and villain must not improve (in all likelihood) for you to win. In return, you must call at least 1 BB to just see 7th. I think for the way the villain has played the hand, this is an easy fold unless he's a complete nut case. This is a HU pot and just not worth it IMO.

Fair enough - appreciate the feedback.

Results:

I actually did about the worst thing possible, I think: called sixth, and then folded seventh when I didn't improve (caught another three) and villain bet into me.

Fold sixth or pay off seventh, with a preference for folding sixth, is what I gather I should've done