Razz 5th street jam

Discuss

fulltiltpoker Game #7211716960: Table Howard Lederer - $2/$4 Ante $0.40 - Limit Razz - 21:46:09 ET - 2008/07/13
Seat 1: cal30 ($76.90)
Seat 2: bigbluffer79 ($69.20)
Seat 3: Don Gagan ($51.90)
Seat 5: Brent441 ($66.25)
Seat 6: dot0com ($49.60)
Seat 7: tjs545 ($137.50)
Seat 8: skoldpadda9 ($135.80)
bigbluffer79 antes $0.40
Don Gagan antes $0.40
tjs545 antes $0.40
cal30 antes $0.40
skoldpadda9 antes $0.40
dot0com antes $0.40
Brent441 antes $0.40
*** 3RD STREET ***
Dealt to cal30 [4h]
Dealt to bigbluffer79 [Js]
Dealt to Don Gagan [Ks]
Dealt to Brent441 [7d]
Dealt to dot0com [5d]
Dealt to tjs545 [7s]
Dealt to skoldpadda9 [Ah 4c] [2d]
Don Gagan is high with [Ks]
Don Gagan brings in for $0.50
Brent441 calls $0.50
dot0com completes it to $2
tjs545 calls $2
skoldpadda9 raises to $4
cal30 calls $4
bigbluffer79 folds
Don Gagan folds
Brent441 folds
dot0com calls $2
tjs545 calls $2
*** 4TH STREET ***
Dealt to cal30 [4h] [2s]
Dealt to dot0com [5d] [Tc]
Dealt to tjs545 [7s] [3d]
Dealt to skoldpadda9 [Ah 4c 2d] [8h]
cal30 has 15 seconds left to act
cal30 checks
dot0com checks
tjs545 bets $2
skoldpadda9 raises to $4
cal30 calls $4
dot0com calls $4
tjs545 raises to $6
skoldpadda9 raises to $8
cal30 folds
dot0com calls $4
tjs545 calls $2
*** 5TH STREET ***
Dealt to dot0com [5d Tc] [5h]
Dealt to tjs545 [7s 3d] [9d]
Dealt to skoldpadda9 [Ah 4c 2d 8h] [Ts]
tjs545 bets $4
skoldpadda9 raises to $8
dot0com calls $8
tjs545 raises to $12
skoldpadda9 raises to $16
dot0com calls $8
tjs545 calls $4

Well your 4card draw is obviously better then Tjs and whe should be miles ahead of Dotcom.
Why r u raising on 5th? Where not geting tj to fold and even if whe have the better draw where still(mostlikly) behind

sindri_93 said:

Well your 4card draw is obviously better then Tjs and whe should be miles ahead of Dotcom.
Why r u raising on 5th? Where not geting tj to fold and even if whe have the better draw where still(mostlikly) behind

Click to expand...

Im tired and i miss read the HH,ignore please

TJ could easily have four to a 7 low, which would be a better draw than your four to an 8. Plus you need a 7, 5, or 3 to make your draw, but 5 of those are out already. Not sure what dot0 is hanging around for ^_^

/me is not a big fan of the jam.

Any reads? I'm thinking there has to be something more to it with this action.

We've got a marginal made hand on 5th, with nine outs to a hand that will beat a nine, but we'll need runner-runner if villain improves.

If villain catches well again on 6th I don't really see how we can continue - even with a read that villain will regularly try this with a brick in the hole, and even if we catch a 3/5/6.

Of course if we improve and villain bricks we could be looking OK, but I'd rather flat call the bet on 5th street rather than raise it up with such a marginal hand. If we're making the second bet to see whether the villain is serious or not, we got our answer. I definitely don't think I make the four-bet there - for $4 more, I think I just call the three-bet.

With a big draw and a big pot, I'm trying to get it HU. Best way to do that is to raise out the guy in 3rd place.

Definitely agro, but this play has its merits. Nonetheless, you can play it more passively. By increasing the dead money in the pot, I'm trying to increase my implied odds in a not so standard way. If I hit well on 6th I can't expect to get any more money in the pot from the guy in 3rd if he bricks. If I brick and the guy in the lead catches good, then I'm not putting more into the pot. Since I view the guy in 3rd as chasing and calling any bets here on 5th, I'm effectively getting 2:1 for each bet I make. So, if my equity is over 33%, this is not a bad play. With a very smooth draw like mine, I like the play.

skoldpadda said:

With a big draw and a big pot, I'm trying to get it HU. Best way to do that is to raise out the guy in 3rd place....

...Since I view the guy in 3rd as chasing and calling any bets here on 5th, I'm effectively getting 2:1 for each bet I make.

Click to expand...

So which are you trying to do? Get him to fold, or keep him in the pot so you have to have less equity to make the play profitable?

This is not the same scenario as raising to remove a player who has substantial equity in the pot. The player with a 5T5 board can at best have 4 to a T low. His equity in this pot has to be pretty small, even if he has A2. Right?

Gimme a few seconds to check the #'s before replying .

Poker Odds Calculator (twodimes.net)
pokenum -mc 500000 -r ah 4c 2d 8h ts - 4s 8d 7s 3d 9d - 8s 4d 5d tc 5h / 7d 4h js ks
Razz (7-card Stud A-5 Low): 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ts 4c 2d Ah 8h 264120 52.82 235087 47.02 793 0.16 0.529
7s 4s 9d 8d 3d 189029 37.81 310611 62.12 360 0.07 0.378
8s Tc 5d 4d 5h 45811 9.16 453262 90.65 927 0.19 0.093

Poker Odds Calculator (twodimes.net)
pokenum -mc 500000 -r ah 4c 2d 8h ts - 5s 6c 7s 3d 9d - as 3h 5d tc 5h / 7d 4h js ks
Razz (7-card Stud A-5 Low): 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ts 4c 2d Ah 8h 127531 25.51 372445 74.49 24 0.00 0.255
7s 5s 6c 9d 3d 317614 63.52 181707 36.34 679 0.14 0.636
As Tc 5d 5h 3h 54152 10.83 445145 89.03 703 0.14 0.109

EV is in Bold.

I think that puts in a pretty good idea of the best & worst case scenarios. Idk, in either situation, our friend showing paired fives is drawing
nearly dead... I don't understand raising to remove him from the pot. I would usually be flat calling to try and keep our retarded friend in & paying us.

I'm a bit confused as well - if dot0com was going to fold on fifth, surely he would've done it immediately?

I can see some reasons for making the second bet on fifth: if tjs has just been playing the strength of his board all along then we're letting him know he's chasing against a made hand, and we're maybe getting a free card on sixth or seventh as if he's still drawing to a nine, he'll have a hard time knowing if he's ahead unless he catches perfect-perfect.

So if we raise, fold out dot0com and get a call from tjs (or even a fold from tjs, though it'd be highly unlikely) then all well and good.

But instead, we got a call from dot0com and a three-bet from tjs. So I really don't see the value of the four-bet - it's now quite likely that we're behind a made nine and there's no real chance we're going to fold either villain out.

OzExorcist said:

But instead, we got a call from dot0com and a three-bet from tjs. So I really don't see the value of the four-bet - it's now quite likely that we're behind a made nine and there's no real chance we're going to fold either villain out.

Click to expand...

See, this is where I disagree. Once the 'tard has called 2 bets cold, he's not folding for another two bets. So by 4-betting we can possibly buy ourselves a free card on 6th. Plus, why not extract another bet out of the fish where we have approximately enough equity in the pot to do so (~33% more or less).

Simulator was unable to do 3 handed 5th street simulation using ranges, and so I just gave the 3rd player A2 in the hole. Obviously we have enough equity vs. his range to be raising as long as the 3rd player keeps putting bets in the pot. The problem lies in what happens when the 3rd player folds. All of his equity is gained by tjs. So as long as you're confident in the 3rd player to continue calling, raising is ok.

Razz Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: 42JKK7
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
A428T 39.79% 238,454 603
(8-6-739) 48.63% 291,639 274
A25T5 11.58% 69,176 585

Razz Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: 42JKK75T5
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
A428T 38.78% 232,582 245
(8-6-739) 61.22% 367,173 245


(Obviously the results are slightly skewed by me giving A2 to the third player and the way that impacts tjs range, but not so much that it changes the point of tjs gaining pretty much all of the dead equity)

c9h13no3 said:

See, this is where I disagree. Once the 'tard has called 2 bets cold, he's not folding for another two bets. So by 4-betting we can possibly buy ourselves a free card on 6th. Plus, why not extract another bet out of the fish where we have approximately enough equity in the pot to do so (~33% more or less).

Click to expand...

Point taken.

I guess I'm most concerned with how the equity situation is going to change on sixth street - we might have just enough equity to justify the fourth bet now, but I'd rather save that bet and then reassess on sixth, where we'll have a better idea of where we stand.

We only have nine outs left in the deck. A few of those almost have to be dead in the villains' down cards, but even ignoring that, we're going to brick sixth street about...what, 74% of the time?

There's a high probability that if we brick on sixth we won't be able to justify continuing with the hand, especially if one or both* of the villans catches well

(* We've gotta figure that dot0com is drawing to a smooth ten, otherwise he surely would've folded - if he thinks his draw is live against us and figures tjs for a brick in the hole, his calls might make slightly more sense)

The whole thing makes my head hurt a little, TBH, and it's quite possible I'm taking a cop-out "Bah, it's all too hard" line with the hand. Very much enjoying the discussion though

Good discussion. Villain did indeed have A2 in the hole, but bricked out. Going agro gets you more action for other hands, so I like my play even if it's marginal.

*** 6TH STREET ***
Dealt to dot0com [5d Tc 5h] [9s]
Dealt to tjs545 [7s 3d 9d] [3s]
Dealt to skoldpadda9 [Ah 4c 2d 8h Ts] [3h]
skoldpadda9 bets $4
dot0com folds
tjs545 calls $4
*** 7TH STREET ***
Dealt to skoldpadda9 [Ah 4c 2d 8h Ts 3h] [6d]
skoldpadda9 bets $4
tjs545 calls $4
*** SHOW DOWN ***
skoldpadda9 shows [6d 4c 2d 8h Ts 3h Ah] 6,4,3,2,A
tjs545 mucks
skoldpadda9 wins the pot ($108.80) with 6,4,3,2,A
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $111.80 | Rake $3
Seat 1: cal30 folded on 4th St.
Seat 2: bigbluffer79 folded on 3rd St.
Seat 3: Don Gagan folded on 3rd St.
Seat 5: Brent441 folded on 3rd St.
Seat 6: dot0com folded on 6th St.
Seat 7: tjs545 mucked [Th 2c 7s 3d 9d 3s Ad] - 9,7,3,2,A
Seat 8: skoldpadda9 showed [6d 4c 2d 8h Ts 3h Ah] and won ($108.80) with 6,4,3,2,A

I guess as a meta-game consideration it can be worth the $4 extra to cap the action, if you think you can trade on that image equity later - it'll stick in the minds of everyone at the table much more so than just flat calling the three-bet.

Hadn't thought of that angle - I don't play above .25/.50, where we don't really need to worry as much about building an image in order to get our good hands paid off because half the players aren't paying attention anyway.

Just out of interest, what's your action if we brick sixth, or we make our 8-6 on sixth then brick the river? I'm assuming we have to fold the former and call down the latter?

OzExorcist said:

I guess as a meta-game consideration it can be worth the $4 extra to cap the action

Click to expand...

Its not really costing us any money. This play is probably roughly 0 EV, maybe barely negative. But this is nowhere near a 4$ mistake.