Originally Posted by shinedown.45
What size of bet could have I made at the river to make it look like I was trying to bluff?
But what are villain's range that he would call you down with, just trying to catch a bluff? He's certainly not calling with ace high, or a smaller pair than J's if you bet hard on the river.
Also, I think any "bluff" type bet you make here is going to be hard for villain to call since you 3-bet preflop.
To all the guys who are arguing the standard "lead out with your monsters" line, I think there are some things about this situation that make checking the flop a possibility:
1) We're first to act, against 2 villain's, one of which is described as "Lag". Thus its highly possible that we'll induce a bluff by checking that we won't get by betting.
2) Check/calling allows another card to come off, and there are a lot of 2nd best hands that villain could make.
3) We're not building the pot as much by betting the flop, since its very very unlikely that we'll be getting raised. At 2$NL, no one is savvy enough to raise with a straight/flush draw on this board. Thus, no matter what we bet, we're only getting called. So why not let the villain bet for us on the flop?
4) We're not getting our stack in against anything but AQ, QQ, and AA, and AQ is the only likely holding given the preflop action.
5) Players at the 2$ level do not think "he wouldn't bet out with AK or KK here". They think "gee, he raised a lot preflop, and he's betting a lot now, he must have a good hand". Things are *really* that simple at the 2$ level.
Once we've called villain on the flop, we can take over the betting. Villain is unlikely to two barrel us, the jack gives AT, AJ, JJ, and TT something extra to continue in the hand with, and I think at this point we can bet out to get value out of all the hands that would check behind on the turn.
You guys just keep saying things like "They can't call if you don't bet" but I don't think that's a real good argument, and I think since we're holding all the K's, then getting our stack in is optimistic given the preflop action. We shouldn't be playing to get our stack in, we should be playing to maximize profit in the long run.
Winning 200 big blinds 1 out of 10 times is just as good as winning 40 blinds half the time. And usually when villain has a hand that's worth stacking off with, wether we check the flop or not, the money is probably going in. The only hand I can think of that would *possibly* raise us on the flop is [JcTc], and at this level, thats still very unlikely.
If we held KQ, or AK, or QQ, I would bet out all day, since there are still cards out villain can call us with. But in this case, I think Villain's range is just too weak.