QT flops bottom two, Faces resistance [200nl FR]

zachvac

zachvac

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poker stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

Hero (MP3): $202 (101 bb)
CO: $197 (98.5 bb)
BTN: $217.45 (108.7 bb)
SB: $54 (27 bb)
BB: $86.40 (43.2 bb)
UTG+1: $209.85 (104.9 bb)
MP1: $393.70 (196.9 bb)
MP2: $102.85 (51.4 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP3 with T
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Q
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3 folds, Hero raises to $6, CO calls $6, 3 folds

Flop: ($15) K
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Q
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T
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(2 players)
Hero bets $12, CO raises to $30

Villain is 13/11 TAG reg. Other than AK I really don't beat much but there are a good amount of draws in his range here. Folding seems super-weak here, but do you just flat this? Raise and get it in? If we flat how do we handle blank turns? Club turns?
 
Jurn8

Jurn8

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fwiw zach, you dont have to take any notice of this just my opinion. I have looked through all your hands and they are all really tough decisions

first up wouldnt a TAG reg in the cut off 3bet with AK? but he may flat AJ in position. I think he also would 3bet AQ in position on you.

Personally I flat and then get it in on the turn if clubs miss, club turns check and see how he reacts.

Just my opinion trying to get into HA because realise it improves me as a player.
 
C

cAPSLOCK

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Too bad the timer isn't like 10 minutes cause it took me that long to work it out. In the short time I would have flatted, donked a blank, and folded to a reraise. I would have lost that way, or at showdown most likely.

You're beat. Fold.

Of the hands he'd play this way... you have the worst.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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If villain is a reg, i assume you have lots of post flop stats on him? How aggressive is he? Does he raise cbets a lot? An aggressive villain could be doing this with any J or a flush draw, and that would make the range you're somewhat ahead of a lot wider.

Also, how often does he 3bet so we can narrow his preflop flatting range? Can we take KK, QQ off his range here? Then we're only beat by KQ, KT and TT, and it's likely he would not even flat with KT or KQ unless they're suited. Can we take TT off his range too? Can we leave AK in his range?
 
BelgoSuisse

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Oops, and of course i forget to take the AJ and J9 hands into account. :eek:

In terms of possible combos that beat you, there are

12 AJo / 4 AJs / 12 J9o / 4 J9s / 2 KQs / 4 KQo / 1 KTs / 5 KTo / 3 KK / 1 QQ / 1 TT

But it's impossible for all those hands to be part of his 2% flat calling range of course. Which ones would you expect in and out of it?

You're ahead, but never crushing, of 12 AK hands / 3 KJs / 9 KJo / 2 QJs / 6 QJo / 2 JTs / 2 JTo / 9 nut flush draws with AcXc and maybe a few lower flush draws with suited connectors. Once again, it's impossible for all those hands to be part of his 2% flat calling range of course. Which ones would you expect in and out of it?
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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"Nits always have it" is not a bad principle to live by. I think AK is going to be a pretty big part of his range here, but there are more AJ than AK, there are 6 combos of KQ as well, and there are precious few flushdraws in his range.

If we were in position and got checkraised, I'd probably see the turn and go from there (with the most likely result being folding the turn) but out of position, I don't think there's money to be made.

Edited to add: KJs and QJs are possibilities as well, but again, a quick combo estimation gives that we're not going to be ahead more than half the time, and - and this is the real kicker - the hands that we beat, we're mostly coinflips versus (combo draws).

We can't continue OOP.
 
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