£4 NLHE 6-max: Call or Fold River ?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 23/15/2.5

Villain likes to float a lot of flops and is also a big draw chaser regardless of what odds he is getting.

When I hit 2 pair on the turn I was pretty sure I was ahead with top 2 as only a set is beating me, but when he lead out on the river with no draws apart from Q9 and AQ getting there which I know he would be 3-betting AQ 90% of the time as I have played a lot of hands with villain before I got a HUD so know how he plays.

He knows I am capable of firing 2 barrels with air so thought there was a small chance that he could of led out with missed flush draw, or he could of floated flop with KQ giving him an o/e straight draw on the turn then hit top pair on the river which he will always be betting for value I would of thought. Obviously I am behind to sets, higher two pairs and Q9 but wasn't quite sure what to make of the lead on the river.

iPoker - £0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 85.25 BB (VPIP: 55.56, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
UTG: 19.25 BB (VPIP: 9.09, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
MP: 127 BB (VPIP: 72.50, PFR: 2.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 43)
CO: 52.75 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
Hero (BTN): 147.5 BB
SB: 122 BB (VPIP: 22.69, PFR: 15.68, 3Bet Preflop: 5.24, Hands: 604)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T:diamond: J:heart:

fold, MP calls 1 BB, CO calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 3 BB, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold, MP calls 2 BB, CO calls 2 BB

Flop: (13 BB, 4 players) T:heart: 6:heart: 2:diamond:
SB checks, MP checks, CO checks, Hero bets 9 BB, SB calls 9 BB, fold, fold

Turn: (31 BB, 2 players) J:spade:
SB checks, Hero bets 21.5 BB, SB calls 21.5 BB

River: (74 BB, 2 players) K:diamond:
SB bets 51.75 BB, Hero ???

This is a call. He's going to do this with any compound draw that connects with the king. Most people at these stakes aren't think about what they are folding and what they are being called by. So this guy either has a missed draw and is betting the over, or really hit the king and is still behind you. There's a few hands you don't beat that might do this, K6, K2. But that's about it.

That aside:

Hero raises to 3 BB. With 2 limpers your raise is too small. 6BB minimum. If these guys like to float and chase, when you hit top pair get in there. 11BB into 13. Turn two pair? 27BB into 33. Make these fools pay up if they want to face off against you.

You made this hand difficult for yourself preflop, JT os is a speculative hand and not one you should be pricing everyone in to come along with you. Regardless of what happened post flop this is a mistake you should note and take away from this hand. One mistake often compounds into another.
As you made it so cheap all sorts of speculative garbage could have come along here so it's difficult to narrow his range. He could have a set of 2s or 6s but more likely he has your missed flush draw, a K or other weak holdings in which case you have to call some of the time. If this was higher stakes call 80% fold 20% on the combos . It maybe that you don't go to showdown much and he just thinks you will be folding. Other things to factor in are if it's a bluff he has heart. Also at these stakes people get so married to their medium hands that they call it off anyway which makes the bluff questionable. Players at this level are learning and don't really know how to turn their weak hands into a bluff. Factor all that in and I might find a fold.

Raise 5-9 bb's pre over the two limpers. Bet a little more on the turn, call and lose to KT on the river.

Thanks for the replies

So I have took away from these comments that the biggest mistake I made in this hand regardless of the result was my pre-flop raise size.

Also if I thought I was up against some kind of draw I could of made the turn bet a little higher. I bet 70% pot, I think somewhere between 90-100% pot would of been better.

I think JTo is still nearly always an open from the BTN with no PFR before me but I understand I should be raising 3bb plus 1bb for every limper, so 5bb would be the correct size here.

c9h13no3 said:

Raise 5-9 bb's pre over the two limpers. Bet a little more on the turn, call and lose to KT on the river.

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Agree with your first 2 suggestions mate, but not quite sure why you have said call and lose to KT on the river ? There are a bunch of other hands villain could show up with here.

The more I look over this hand the more I feel I should of folded as what type of hands is villain x/c flop and turn with and then leading river which seems like a strong line to take.

The only hand I beat and can see villain taking this line with is KhQh who had a flush draw OTF then improved to an open ended straight draw OTT, then hit top pair OTR.

Can anyone please tell me how to put the results in spoiler mode and I will post it.

Fold, but you shall raise bigger preflop

JJW87 said:

Agree with your first 2 suggestions mate, but not quite sure why you have said call and lose to KT on the river ? There are a bunch of other hands villain could show up with here.

The more I look over this hand the more I feel I should of folded as what type of hands is villain x/c flop and turn with and then leading river which seems like a strong line to take.

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There's a shot he could be bluffing with a busted draw when the board ran out with overs and the draws missed. And there are more draws in vill's range since he just called a small raise. But yeah, if it's a +EV call, it's not a great one.

I think either a call or fold is ok. You're really only beating KQ of hearts that he'd play this way, versus K10 or KJ of hearts which have you beat.

So I know you observed he floats a lot and shows up on the river with weird hands, but would he take this river line with missed hearts? The fact he peels flops or turns alone doesn't push me too much into the call. If he floats and tends to give up, I'd fold. If you've seen him suicide bluff, then I'd have to bluffcatch.

I think I have to call as well when you add in the fact that he'd certainly value-bet KQ since you could very feasibly have QJ and AJ with the flop and turn bets and he has no reason to think his TPTK isn't good.