re: Poker & £10 NLHE6-max: 3bet by nit with QQ, IP
Originally Posted by baudib1
yeah but he's in the blinds and you're a late-position raiser. I'm sure his 3-bet range is slightly higher in the BB than it would be on the button. what's your table image?
Table image is fairly tight, I'm a newish reg (~8k hands, but most of the other regs have several hundred thousand). He's not seen me get out of line AFAIK either, so probably thinks I'm just a straight forward ABC 23/17.
Originally Posted by forsakenone
Ok so calculating 2.6% of his 3bet preflop would show these hands: AA, KK, AKs, QQ, JJ and TT.
Ok, so the reason this is posted here is because me and the OP had a discussion about the hand, basically what happened is I said i would reraise to 1.8$ or 2$. My thoughts on this is because i believe he is putting us on a steal from late position and he might be reraising here to resteal. I doubt the BB has KK or AA because the only reraised 50c more which seems kinda not enough to me because it gives me the impression he is begging for a fold which makes me want to bet so bad so i am putting him at a best AK hand and i believe i can make him fold AK, JJ or TT here by 4 betting.
So, new thought, i think that if he had AA or KK he would bet more preflop for value exactly from the kind of hands we have or something like JJ TT or AK. But, it's 4.15 in the morning and i am finding it really hard to focus here, but if i had AA or KK i would reraise more to maybe 1.1$ preflop to get more value from the hands i said earlier and to get hands like small pocket pairs to fold (anything from 22-99) because i am only asking for 50c more and i have 11$ behind me, making it likely that a small pocket pair will see a flop because of the implied odds (you hit 1 of 8 times a set with a PP as far as i know, so you miss 7x0.50c = 3.5$ but when you finally hit a set and he has AA or KK you win 11$) so this is why i doubt a grinder like him, would 3bet so less.
So if i am putting him on AK why not call and see a flop you ask? Simply because i would rather take a small pot down preflop, or lose 2$ preflop than making a really hard decision when a flop like 278 rainbow comes. Point where we still have no idea what he has in his hand, on this board he will bet out of position all his range which is once again AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT and AKs and i suspect AKo too. There is also another variable that comes in to mind, the board could come 27K or 27A, he bets out of position because he now has the lead as he reraised from the BB and he has to cbet with JJ and TT because there is only 1 over on the board (that's what i would do) and he will definitely bet AK and AKs on a board like 27K or 27A. Plus he has all the right to represent an A or K because he 3bet light preflop.
Originally Posted by forsakenone
i believe i already responded to this:
"So if i am putting him on AK why not call and see a flop you ask? Simply because i would rather take a small pot down preflop, or lose 2$ preflop than making a really hard decision when a flop like 278 rainbow comes. Point where we still have no idea what he has in his hand, on this board he will bet out of position all his range which is once again AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT and AKs and i suspect AKo too. There is also another variable that comes in to mind, the board could come 27K or 27A, he bets out of position because he now has the lead as he reraised from the BB and he has to cbet with JJ and TT because there is only 1 over on the board (that's what i would do) and he will definitely bet AK and AKs on a board like 27K or 27A. Plus he has all the right to represent an A or K because he 3bet light preflop."
So anyway, i thought poker was about making the right decision and about hand reading, if i call i still don't know where i am, so i might as well go all in which still counts as a 4bet, but if i go all in he won't call TT or JJ, i have doubts he will call AKs and AKo, and he will definitely call with KK and AA, if he folds i win 80c yey, if he calls i am doomed, byebye to 11$ never to be seen again
So, no need for cursing here, simply i see no reason to call, either shove it, or make a normal 4bet to find out where you stand, no reason to call because on the flop we still have the same problem as preflop but with more variables with 3 more cards showing. and, considering the range we gave him, he would have these outs that can scare me really bad: any A, any K, any T any J, all i really like on a flop is another Q. Plus, he might have as well reraised us with a small pocket pair because he believes we are in for a steal from late position, when the flop comes, he can have a set of about just anything that flopped really (if it's all small) and we missed the chance to get him to fold, and if he does misses with the small pocket pair as it is possible, he won't put a nickle more in the pot.
Give your thoughts and make sure you explain, not curse willing to learn here.
I've told Dan my thoughts on this already by Skype but will try and condense them here. I'll try and address them in some sort of logically order. There appear to be two reasons given why 4betting is suggested - "to find out where you stand", or to get him to fold JJ/TT/AK/low PP so we don't have to see a flop.
Firstly, to find out where you stand. Villain has a 2.6% 3bet over a large sample, so we can assume TT or maybe even JJ+, AKo+. Of course he's going to throw in the odd 3bet with stuff like AQs/99, but he's not going to get out of line much, mainly because he doesn't need to. These guys are very simple, very straightforward, and he's not going to adapt his range if I start opening more on tighter tables because he doesn't really have a clue what this sentence means
Firstly, I can't see villain 3betting and folding to a 4bet very much at all, only JJ and lower PPs (which are much less likely IMO) will do this. QQ+ and AK+ we get it all in and I find myself crushed or flipping. The problem with 4betting is that we fold out all the stuff we crush like AQs/88-JJ, and save him a lot of money.
The maths, assuming we make it around $2.8 to go:
We stand to win $0.90 if he folds (3bet + SB)
We stand to lose $2.80 if he goes all in
Therefore, for 4bet folding to be profitable here, he has to fold over 3x as many times as he goes all in. Given his range of 2.6%, he's obviously not going to be doing this.
Secondly, we have QQ! Yes, he's a nit, but we have a very strong hand. Folding pre here is simply not an option, and as I've just shown 4bet/folding is throwing money away. There are only two ways we can make any profit with QQ here - firstly 4bet and calling him off, obviously assuming that he stacks off with JJ here to make it definitely +EV but QQ v QQ+, AK is only a 40/60 dog so I reckon that's probably going to be fairly similar.
The other option is flatting the 3bet, thereby keeping all the hands we have crushed in the pot and making profit after the flop comes down. This leads onto the second point that Dan was making - getting hands which we crush to fold. This is the last
thing I want to do. Given his tight 3betting range I think any move here is going to be fairly marginally EV but I want to maximise any advantage I have over him and I think that includes playing him post flop - he will play fairly straight forward, it gives us the chance to bink a set or fold after continued aggression on the turn folding an A or K high flop , and we've also got position which we can use to our advantage massively.
Being scared of seeing a flop vs these sorts of opponents isn't good.
Originally Posted by WVHillbilly
Sorry about the cussing. It was merely for emphasis. No malice meant.
BUT if you really think he folds AK/JJ/TT why are you 3betting? As a bluff? Can't be for value if he's not calling with anything other than KK+ right? I can think of about 3 dozen better hands to 4bet bluff with if you think his continuation range is KK+.
As for what I'd do? I'd 4bet and be willing to get it in because I think his range for getting it in includes JJ and AK. Against that range we're fine with the dead money in the pot AND the fact that there is a greater than zero chance that he 3bet/folds hands like 66-TT. If we can add TT to his stacking range we're a favorite against his continuation range as well. So yeah I 4bet too, but for value, not to turn QQ into a bluff.
I quite like getting it in pre too, but given I've got no notes and we aren't sure if he stacks off with TT to a 4bet, yet probably will on most flops where there aren't 2+ overs, and the fact we can probably get some small value out of a hand like 66 on a low board if he puts us on two broadway, etc, I think there is definitely merit to playing post flop with him. Additionally, our hand is fairly disguised when we flat IP, partly as I have a very low fold to 3bet (something I should have mentioned before, but I don't think that any reg at this level is going to have it as a prominent stat on his HUD which he pays attention to) and also because he still probably includes set mining PP in my range along with various aces and broadways, especially suited ones.
Just some food for thought. I'm not saying any of it's right, just my opinion.
PS. 1. I'll move onto the next part of the hand sometime tomorrow, but seems there's plenty of discussion re: pre first.
PS. 2. This is mainly aimed at Dan, but I think assuming all opponents think - and more specifically use exactly the same bet sizing - as you is definitely a major leak IMO. Basing your reads purely off what you would do in that spot compared to what villain does doesn't make any sense, given that the whole aim of having a tracker/taking notes/watching pots is to ensure that you have an idea of what other players do. Otherwise, saying that because he made it so small he's probably 3betting light to defend what he perceives as a steal, has no basis in actual fact whatsoever. All villains bet differently, and finding patterns in bet sizing wouldn't be such a great tell to pick up if it was the same for everyone.