Still mulling over this hand in my head. I was reasonably sure that villain in bb had made the str8. So after the flop I have 7 outs to improve, 3 10's, 3 6's, 1 9, If I miss turn I gain 3 more outs for the river 3 x.
So I have 7 outs on flop, and 10 outs on river. If I know that I'm going to shove I can use the 10 outs to get to the river. If I am reasonably sure villain has str8(which I was), it really is inconsequential what villain in sb has, as I know I need to pair the board to win regardless.
So doing the math 10 outs, 5 know cards 10d, 6d, 9s, 9c, 9d. so 47 unknown leaves us with this 10 out of 47 cards get me there. Which is a 1 in 4.7 chance to make the boat or better.
So I would need 4.7 times my stack in the pot to make the call correct.
The pot was $80 preflop, $50 from Hero, $50 from sb, $50 from bb, and $216 more to call. for a pot of $446.
So I have to put in $216 to win $446 just a bit over 2-1 pot odds
not correct to call.
I shoved for more $280 lets assume I knew sb was going to call that would make the pot. $445 + sb's $280 for a pot of $725
so now im betting $280 to win $725 or a bit better than 2.5-1 pot odds
. Again not correct to call.
So my conclusion is that there would of needed to be $280 x 4.7 = $1316 in the pot to make it correct.
I should of folded hand? Does that math make sense?
I guess assuming I knew he made the str8 I could say there were
7 know cards (the cards stated above + 7, 8) cards which made the str8.
so 45 unknown or 10/45 or 1 in 4.5 chance to make boat or better still not getting correct odds to call?
Also, I stated that both villains seemed to be friends and came together to casino. I got the feeling that If I folded sb would of folded and let his buddy win the pot. If I call, he calls giving them 2 chances to win my $$. I don't know if that even was considered by them and they both did have legitimate hands.
Could that be a form of collusion where two buddies are in a hand with a 3rd person and both play it that way to improve there odds of one of them winning and splitting up money at end of the night? Has anyone encountered that while playing?
just something to think about