Originally Posted by tenbob
I rarely bet here unless im playing against a total idiot. The danger with betting this river is out stack sizes. A value whilst may be called for, we are in more trouble than we want to be in, if we get raised, then we gotta call.... Check for pot control.
I've been in this situation and lost enough times to agree with this. ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
I used to think the value bet was the correct move, because 1) if we bet, say $25, hands like 99, 55, AK and maybe even AQ should call, and 2) from villain's perspective, since we've been calling this all the way, if he has a hand like JJ+, he should just call and not shove. In reality though, it doesn't work like that, and I can tell you a good 90% of times PP's better than ours will shove to our bet, and as TB pointed out, even if we might feel and understand that we're probably beat, we are forced to call because of the size of our remaining stack compared to the pot after the value bet.
Knowing he had AK one can conclude you lost a chance to make an extra $25/$30 because pretty much he's almost
forced to call that bet, plus some players go all the way with AK, but in the long run checking behind in spots like this is, IMO, the +EV play. Consider also that AK might not call the value bet, based on your image or how he percieves you. Also, since this pot went 4-way he might conclude that he's behind to a medium/small pair and make the correct fold.