PLO - middle set on shifty board against maniac

vanquish

vanquish

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Villain has been bluffing a ton, repotting a lot, etc.


***** Hand History for Game 6462675473 *****
$100 USD PL Omaha - Wednesday, October 31, 17:07:11 ET 2007
Table Table 128284 (No DP) (real money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 4: tally666 ( $48.43 USD )
Seat 6: blokker66 ( $150.84 USD )
Seat 7: astralia ( $128.68 USD )
Seat 9: pako8 ( $43.85 USD )
Seat 5: playeral13 ( $96.50 USD )
tally666 posts small blind [$0.50 USD].
playeral13 posts big blind [$1 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to astralia [ 7h Qd Ts Qh ]
blokker66 raises [$3.50 USD]
astralia calls [$3.50 USD]
pako8 folds
tally666 folds
playeral13 folds
** Dealing Flop ** [ Qc, Ac, Jd ]
blokker66 bets [$8.08 USD]
astralia raises [$32.32 USD]
blokker66 calls [$24.24 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 8s ]
blokker66 checks


Can I still get value out of this set or is he realistically check-raising here with the nuts/giving up on a bluff?
 
skoldpadda

skoldpadda

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I'm not a big fan of repopping the flop but with a bluffing villain it's good. I like betting about half-2/3 the pot on the turn. You don't want to give a free river card although there are not a ton of scare cards so I'd try to build the pot. If you get CR-potted on turn, then what's your read?
 
Bombjack

Bombjack

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I think you're toast once he calls your flop raise. I'd give up on the pot. And no, I wouldn't raise this flop.
 
mrsnake3695

mrsnake3695

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I'm not a big fan of repopping the flop but with a bluffing villain it's good. I like betting about half-2/3 the pot on the turn. You don't want to give a free river card although there are not a ton of scare cards so I'd try to build the pot. If you get CR-potted on turn, then what's your read?


^^^^
See bold. Huh????

There are a ton of scare cards, any club and any 9 can complete a straight that's not yet made. Of course hero has lots of out too if villan has a made straight. Villan's line looks alot like a flush draw (semi-bluff) to me, play the four flush big on the flop when there's 2 outs and slow down when it doesn't hit.

The decision is do we check behind and see if a safe card hits or do we bet and try to get him off any draws he might (probably) has. Personally I think checking behind would be a good play. If a club hits and villan bets big we can safely fold I think. If a club doesn't hit villan might try to bluff the river on his missed draw thinking your weak by checking the turn.
 
J

joeeagles

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He either seems scared that you have the straight or he's reeling you in to commit yourself. Pot is already ~$73, so you can't bet/fold this because of redraw odds, as you already said.

I'm not going to comment on the flop raise because I don't think it's as terrible as some seem to think, but I'd take the fact he called the raise as pretty significant. Checking behind is probably what I would do. I'm not sure it's the best play with all the draws out there but because of pot size if he check/raises you're forced to go for stacks, and I don't think I want to do that.

If a blank hits the river and he still bets pot this is kind of messy, but it would look like a fold.
 
Bombjack

Bombjack

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I think he has Aces quite often here and probably not the straight (he checks the turn after a flushing flop), and this opponent probably isn't folding top set on the turn. He might do, but he'll probably put you on a flush draw / lower set or something and figures maybe he has odds to call even if you have the straight. If you had a bigger stack, firing big both the turn and river repping KT like you did on the flop would probably be effective (so long as the board blanks), but after the huge flop raise, you're not deep enough to take this line.
 
J

joeeagles

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I think he has Aces quite often here and probably not the straight (he checks the turn after a flushing flop),

Good point. If we're going to put him on a strong hand, then Aces have to be more probable than the straight, because it'd be the nut straight and there is no way that on that board he cold/calls a raise and checks the turn. Actually, we should consider the straight as 99% sure that he doesn't have it.

But is there anything else you think he could have after calling that huge flop raise? Any chance he might have Aces up and called thinking Vanquish might be on a draw? Would a nut flush draw call that raise? Reason I ask is because, if we check this turn, I'm pretty sure he bets even if the river is a total blank. I kind of think we should fold even to a $30 bet, but I'm trying to make a case to call.
 
Bombjack

Bombjack

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If you check behind and he doesn't bet a flushing river, you can represent the flush as a bluff and probably get him off a set of Aces.

I think he could only have a hand that doesn't beat you if he has two pair with a good / nut flush draw (which would also give him a gutshot) - he'd have to be quite bad to call with 2 pair and nothing else on this flop.
 
skoldpadda

skoldpadda

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snake -- not jack or 8 clubs. those obv complete vanq's boat. I think there are clearly more non-scare cards.
 
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