PLO Flop decision to raise and re-raise (2 parts)

skoldpadda

skoldpadda

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What's your play here?

pokerstars Game #12539417992: Omaha Pot Limit ($0.05/$0.10) - 2007/10/09 - 23:14:35 (ET)
Table 'Teucer II' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: CasualCay ($9.80 in chips)
Seat 2: SxHxAxNxE ($14.80 in chips)
Seat 3: playall100 ($4.25 in chips)
Seat 4: BabyHumvee ($13.55 in chips)
Seat 5: fixer410 ($7.65 in chips)
Seat 6: RupertMurdoc ($10.05 in chips)
SxHxAxNxE: posts small blind $0.05
playall100: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BabyHumvee :7h4: :9h4: :8h4: :10c4:
BabyHumvee: calls $0.10
fixer410: folds
RupertMurdoc: calls $0.10
CasualCay: folds
SxHxAxNxE: calls $0.05
playall100: checks
*** FLOP *** :qc4: :6s4: :5d4:
SxHxAxNxE: bets $0.30
playall100: calls $0.30
BabyHumvee: ?
 
OzExorcist

OzExorcist

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Difficult one - dunno if I've got an especially good answer, but here's what I'm thinking:

Any 7, 8 or 9 will give us the nut straight, that's 9 outs and about 35% to hit. $1 in the pot, 30c to call... so the odds for calling are favourable assuming you can see the river.

But, if we hit one of those cards on the turn it'll put a flush draw on the board. And we don't have a redraw to fall back on (except for something runner-runner like J-8), so if a third suited card comes on the river we'll probably have a hard time calling.

There's also the chance you're up against a QQxx hand, which has odds of hitting a boat that are pretty much comparable to your straight draw, and they'll likely have the best hand if nobody improves. So they're probably not going anywhere.

Any reads on the other players? Maybe I'm jumping at shadows, but I think I'm playing this one cautiously if at all.
 
skoldpadda

skoldpadda

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They bet when they have big hands. And don't forget the 4 as well, Oz.
 
skoldpadda

skoldpadda

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Fold PF no?

Oh, my! Never, especially in a limped pot. In hi-low, this is one of the worst possible hands, but in hi Omaha, this is a very good hand to play for cheap.
 
OzExorcist

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They bet when they have big hands.

Pretty much seals it for me then - I'd probably credit one of them with a QQxx hand (or possibly 66xx or 55xx) and get out of the way.

There's also a possibility that someone is holding 78xx or 79xx and is compromising our outs. Thinking too conservatively?
 
skoldpadda

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Thinking too conservatively?


Not necessarily. There's no one correct answer IMO. I think you can make a good argument for just about anything, but I think folding is very weak here.
 
ChuckTs

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13 outs right now to the nuts; there's no way we can fold this.

I was going to say pot it so we can maybe get a free river (ie check behind on a brick turn), and disguise our hand for when we hit on a later street, but players at this level will probably re-pot with a set or two pair and make it expensive for us, and they'll also probably stack you anyways if you smooth call and hit your straight. Especially if it's a 7 or an 8 that falls.

I say call.
 
robwhufc

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Fold PF no?
Hell no!

I'd raise a bit here to bump the pot up if i hit, up to 80-90 cents. You should get paid if you hit, but you're going to have a hard job getting a load of money into a $1.20 pot. Bet enough so they'll both call.
 
robwhufc

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Any 7, 8 or 9 will give us the nut straight, that's 9 outs and about 35% to hit. $1 in the pot, 30c to call... so the odds for calling are favourable assuming you can see the river.
Four 4's as well. It's certainly worth gambling a few cents now when you could be picking up dollars if you hit one of the 13 outs (13 x 4 = 52%).

Edit - missed Chuck's post, sorry!
 
J

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I'd raise a bit here to bump the pot up if i hit, up to 80-90 cents. You should get paid if you hit, but you're going to have a hard job getting a load of money into a $1.20 pot. Bet enough so they'll both call.

Agree. Raising this to $0.80/$0.90 is the best move also IMO, because you want to set up a chance to build a big pot with all the nut hand possiblities you have. There is the danger of getting reraised but it's a chance I'd take.

If you raise this to $0.90 and they both call and you miss the turn (pot $3.10), I'm not sure how I'd play it next. It would depend on what card comes (board pairs, FD, etc), and what villains do (bet, check). Just too many variables to consider.

Nice flop.
 
skoldpadda

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Ok, the pertinent situations have been brought up. I chose to min raise with a huge draw for info. Yes, I know "min-raise is bad", but sometimes it gets you all the info you need. I think calling is actually probably best in retrospect for pot control because what do you do now? What ranges do you narrow villains down to? What is the best play now?

*** FLOP *** :qc4: :6s4: :5d4:
SxHxAxNxE: bets $0.30
playall100: calls $0.30
BabyHumvee: raises $0.30 to $0.60
RupertMurdoc: raises $2.20 to $2.80
SxHxAxNxE: folds
playall100: raises $1.35 to $4.15 and is all-in
BabyHumvee: ?
 
ChuckTs

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Well now we're probably against two pair+ (are they bad enough to jam it with 2 pair?), and worse case scenario we're up against another big draw and won't have as many outs. I call this and call any 9-bet from rupert :)
 
robwhufc

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What ranges do you narrow villains down to?
Who cares?

Skoldy mate, you're over analysing this, it's Pot Limit Omaha. All you need to know is what is the nut hand, and how many cards have i got to hit it. You're drawing to the nuts, and you've got plenty of outs so call him.

If you get to the end of the hand, miss your outs, and are $10 down, you'd have lost $10 on a even money shot when you were getting 6/4 odds. Long term this play will be a winner.
 
OzExorcist

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Four 4's as well. It's certainly worth gambling a few cents now when you could be picking up dollars if you hit one of the 13 outs (13 x 4 = 52%).

Edit - missed Chuck's post, sorry!

Yeah, I missed those. Oops :eek: Probably makes me lean more towards calling given the action in the first post.

As played and with the subsequent action though, I'd figure we're up against at least one set, maybe a 78xx hand as well. Q6xx or Q5xx is possible, but slightly crazy (might have been in SxHxAxNxE's range).

So there's a good chance some of our outs are tainted and/or we're only playing for half the pot if we hit them, and there's redraws that can beat us even if we do hit on the turn. All of our outs other than the 4h on the turn will put a flush draw that can beat us on the board as well. Risky.

But we're getting the right odds to call ($3.55 to call in a $8.25 pot makes it a bit better than 2:1, if my math is right? Even with a couple of tainted outs, it's still near enough) and we'll still have the right odds to call if Rupert re-pots (all in for him, right?) behind us. Which makes an argument for just re-potting first I guess.

Right track / wrong track?
 
J

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Dam, that I didn't expect. Gotta think we're up against a set, which isn't good because it makes us close to a 2 to 1 dog to the river. In hindsight you're right that a call rather than a raise was better for pot control. Your odds are ok(ish) for a call ($3.55 in a $9.60 pot, assuming Rupert won't fold), because all your outs here (13) are effective ones since they give you the nuts, as long as the board doesn't pair. You're 3.5 to 1 to hit the turn and Rupert has $5.80 behind giving you enough IO.

There is, however, the danger that Rupert could raise this again and if he doesn't he could give you barely correct odds on the river if you miss the turn. We have to assume he'll shove the turn (I think chances are actually good that he shoves now).

TBH, I think you're not making a mistake here whichever way you go. You can fold this if you don't feel like risking another $9.50 on a draw. This is, of course, one of the best draws you can hope for in omaha because your 13 outs are all to nut hands and the flop has no flush draws, therefore the only bullet to dodge, if you make your hand, is the board pairing. But all this doesn't necessarily mean you can't fold. I think you can and it wouldn't be incorrect.

You can also shove before Rupert does, and that because a) he could fold, so now you're only risking $4.25 rather than $10, and b) even if he calls chips will, at some point, go all-in so it really doesn't change much and because you'll also see the river it makes your odds more correct.

Smooth calling just to see the turn seems like the weakest play (assuming Rupert doesn't shove now), but it has some merits simply because if the board pairs on the turn you can escape this hand saving $5.80 in the process. If board doesn't pair you'll have to call any bet, including the shove.

So, in conclusion, I don't think your play can be criticized here whichever direction you go, including the fold. I don't really know what I would do if I were playing this, it would depend if I felt like gambling or not, so basically that's like saying that my state of mind at that moment will decide for me. With a fold you're only losing $0.60 so its a decision between dropping $0.60 or going all the way risking $10.

On a smaller, personal note, I'm really liking discussing these omaha hands.
 
skoldpadda

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Those are all excellent points. I think in situations like these, it's helpful to know the pot equity considerations. This is not an uncommon type of big hand in PLO - someone with nut set on flop, other guy with presumed 2nd set and 3rd guy with the likely best draw. I'm at work right now, but I can post the pertinent info later if someone else doesn't do it first.
 
ChuckTs

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Smooth calling just to see the turn seems like the weakest play


I don't think it is at all.

We really really want shane to stay in too, further swelling the pot and giving us even better odds. So if we call, shane calls behind then rupert comes over the top, we'll be getting 4:1 with a 13-out (~coinflip) draw. I'm drooling.

Even if shane folds we would still be getting more than 3:1 for the easy call.

I think folding is easily the weakest option.

Nice thread btw :)
 
J

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I think folding is easily the weakest option.

Yeah you're probably right, the weakest option is folding but still I don't think it's terribly wrong. In a cash game context, like we have here, you can obviously rebuy and if you decide to play PLO the bottom line is that you can't run away every time you're faced with situations like this one. Consequently folding isn't the greatest play, but I don't completely hate it. There is another consideration I want to add as to the why I don't hate it.

With the kind of hand we have here our only hope to win is to catch one of the 13 outs to the nuts, if not we lose. That being the case, we really have no advantage in having a side pot with Rupert. If the 1st villain wasn't shortstacked and had $10, then definitely folding is out of question and you have to shove, for both FE and pot odds considerations. This is not to say that we should fold just because 3rd villain is shortstacked, but it wouldn't be absolutely wrong to do so since our reward would increase making our odds even better if indeed he had $10 ($30 pot as opposed to $24).

The thing to keep in mind is that, if we put Rupert on a set, he is almost a 2 to 1 favored on us and more than 50% of our stack is invested in a side pot with him. Of course when you figure your odds you look (correctly) at the whole pot and I can't say our pot odds are terrible. But the fact that 3rd villain is shortstacked thus creating a side pot makes our return smaller and there is no advantage for us in that, because we don't have a made hand that we're hoping that holds up, we either hit 4th/5th street and win with the nuts, or we lose. I hope that wasn't confusing.

All I'm trying to do is make a case for folding. I'm not arguing that it's the best play but I don't believe it's horrible. As I posted before, I really think anyway you go here it can't be criticized.
 
ChuckTs

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I don't think it's completely wrong; we're probably not actually sitting on 13 outs, and could be in some trouble vs a pair + draw, but I still think it's incredibly weak. We're getting such great odds that even if we've only got a fraction of our 13 outs, we're still getting odds.

I mean 13 outs, all of which give us the nuts. We should be happy to get our whole stack in on this flop IMO.

On a side note, there's a downside to smooth calling, and that's if we get calls behind us and then are faced with a bet on a brick turn. We might not be able to call.
 
skoldpadda

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With the stack sizes and a non-pairing brick on the turn, can we be priced out of calling? That's what I considered most strongly in making my decision.
 
OzExorcist

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With the stack sizes and a non-pairing brick on the turn, can we be priced out of calling? That's what I considered most strongly in making my decision.

Depends what you and Rupert ended up doing to finish the flop betting. But even assuming the lowest-pot scenario (you call, Rupert calls) I make the pot size on the turn to be about $13, with only about $6 left behind in Rupert's stack?

Assuming (and I still think it's a big / dangerous assumption) that you've got 13 clean outs to the nuts, you're still 28% to hit. $6 into a $19 pot is just about the right odds.

So no, I don't think it's possible to be priced out of a call on the turn unless the board pairs. Which would be my argument for just getting it all (or as much of it as possible) in on the flop after playall's push.

I think I'm the only one that's mentioned the backdoor flush draw so far - not a concern for anyone else?
 
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With the stack sizes and a non-pairing brick on the turn, can we be priced out of calling? That's what I considered most strongly in making my decision.

He gets close to pricing you out, but not enough that you have to fold. By shoving the turn IMO you're close enough to 3.5 to 1 to justify calling. If he shoves the flop your odds are even better. But that's just it, the question is if you want to go for stacks with this hand. Although one shouldn't assume anything, I strongly doubt Rupert will check the turn, but hey, you never know.
 
Bombjack

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Pre-flop I'd raise this at 6-max, although just limping in early position isn't too bad.

On the flop you have a good straight draw (not as good as if your Ten were a Four but never mind) and you can either call or raise. On a 4-way flop, the SB could have anything here, and putting him on top set is absurd. He usually has 2 pair although a set of fives or sixes, or some kind of wrap are possible. People tend to check-raise top set here. BB may be on a straight draw or could have some guff like a Queen with high side cards. If he's on a straight draw you probably have him dominated.

Raising (pot-size) is aggressive but people tend not to fold their bottom/middle set at a $10 game, and probably not top two either. At a $100 game this might be a better play, since making everyone fold is a good result for you.
You can also thin the field, getting dead money in the pot, and making it less likely someone will hit a backdoor draw on you.
There's also an argument that it's for value because you have >33% equity versus two opponents with made hands and dominate a lot of draws... the problem is when UTG comes over the top and the middle player folds (you still call in this situation but don't like it as much).

Min-raising "for information" is the worst play possible. Please please never post another hand where you do this. You have no fold equity. You're telling people exactly what your hand is (a good made hand would always raise bigger to charge correctly for draws). You're giving someone with a set the chance to re-raise, reduce the field (you want a lot of people in for when you hit the nuts), and help you get your money in bad.

Just calling is the most solid play. You can get away cheaply versus a big bet if the board pairs. You stand to win a bigger pot while getting your money in good than if you raised the flop and got everyone to fold. You have position on the guy who's betting - use it to your advantage rather than negating it by getting all your money in on the flop.

Oz - a flush draw coming on the turn is good for us because it makes it more likely someone will call a large bet. It's unlikely it will hit on the river.
 
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OzExorcist

OzExorcist

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Oz - a flush draw coming on the turn is good for us because it makes it more likely someone will call a large bet. It's unlikely it will hit on the river.

True, the third flush card is only 19% to come on the river (assuming a non-heart comes on the turn). But the flush draw could compromise our outs.

If a non-heart blank comes on the turn, we could well lose four of our 13 outs to a flush draw. That reduces our 28% chance of make the nuts on the river to the exact same odds as the flush draw has of hitting, and makes what was already a borderline call a potentially -EV one.

That assumes that all of the flush outs are clean, of course, but... you get my paranoid drift, and possibly my entry for the Nit of the Year award :p

Of course if we're getting all of our money in before the turn then it's che sera anyway.
 
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