part 3 of cardrunners video (read part 1 and 2 first)

ok so Andrew leads out for $160 into a $237 pot and big blind shoves for $396.50. the cutoff and the button fold, so there is $793.50 in pot and it is $236.50 for you to call. What do you do?

I think you have to call this, you are getting better than 3:1 for your money. Only thing you dont wanna see is a set.

bw07507 said:

I think you have to call this, you are getting better than 3:1 for your money. Only thing you dont wanna see is a set.

Click to expand...

so you dont mind seeing AA or KK?

stormswa said:

so you dont mind seeing AA or KK?

Click to expand...

Well, if we're going to fold to a shove, we shouldn't even be leading out. Call. I think we'll have to play for stacks in this case.

Draw-heavy flop (meaning bigger pushing range), excellent pot odds, I think we have to call.

Definete call.

he folds.

Easy fold. I wouldnt of played the flop like that in the first place but w/e.

4 People see a flop in a pot that was raised 15BBs preflop. The board comes 2 flush cards and 2 straight cards which are broadway. Out of 3 other people(15BB) you dont think one of them has 66/JJ/QQ/KK?

Getting 2:1(or w/e) doesnt make up for being way behind.
What are you beating here? AKs? I think the odds of a set are much bigger than AKs.

EDIT: just ran the odds of winning if were agaisnt AKs and K10s, were a dog to both, 60/40, 55/45.

ChuckTs said:

Draw-heavy flop (meaning bigger pushing range), excellent pot odds, I think we have to call.

Click to expand...

The problem is we have to assume that villain knows he's giving us good pot odds on a call and is therefore knowingly shoving with little fold equity. I'm not sure if he does this with anything we beat apart from possibly AsKs, KQ, and the very small chance of a total bluff.

Anyone saying this is an 'easy' call or an 'easy' fold is way off, imo. I'm erring towards folding based on the above, but it's close and to some extent read-dependent.

Dorkus Malorkus said:

The problem is we have to assume that villain knows he's giving us good pot odds on a call and is therefore knowingly shoving with little fold equity. I'm not sure if he does this with anything we beat apart from possibly AsKs, KQ, and the very small chance of a total bluff.
.

Click to expand...

If it he knows hes giving us good pots he must be an above average player in which case he wouldnt be overcalling x 3 a 15BB with KQ, or even AK for that matter.

Well, obviously.

We have to assign a certain probability to the "I have two pretty cards" preflop factor, and again to the "OMG TOP PAIR ARRRIN" factor. I probably phrased my last post badly - we don't "have to" assume anything aside from the fact that there's a certain probability of that something being relevant, and work from there. At $400NL there's probably more of a likelihood that villain knows what he's doing than that he doesn't, though.

Dorkus Malorkus said:

At $400NL there's probably more of a likelihood that villain knows what he's doing than that he doesn't, though.

Click to expand...

Agreed, that would mean that he doesnt have KQ, and either has a set or AKs, both of which we're behind. A lot farther behind the set though.

stormswa said:

he folds.

Click to expand...

What was his reasoning for the way that he played the hand? Did he explain it in the video at all?

Fold. Guys, he almost never has AKs here

Look at preflop. the BB is not overcalling out of position with AKs or any unpaired hand ever, he's re-raising or folding. He's folding AQ. he either made a set of jacks or he overcalled with AA, because obviously we much less mind playing a big pair out of position when the pot's already so huge and it's not hard to get it on the flop under the right conditions.

Overcalling in bad position here with players who can reraise behind us when we're holding any unpaired hand is really terrible. And if he has a pocket pair and he's shoving into a bettor and two more players with little fold equity, we have to be beat. I don't think it's that hard

edit: i should add that, for the above reasons, i don't like his flop bet. I would have checked, see what the big blind does. We should be very afraid of his smooth call preflop

AA / KK / QQ very rare here. There's very little reason for those hands to just call pre-flop with 3 other players in. JJ possible although most people would re-raise from the button as well. He could have 66 or QJ, but will have a draw quite often, maybe even AQ or KQ. The pot's giving you great odds and I think you're good enough of the time to call.

AA-KK is in no way very rare here, especially AA. i don't know what stakes you play, but i've watched enough medium stakes as well as read the medium stakes forums on 2+2 to know that AA loves to just smoothcall here. why not? it's easy as pie to play AA out of position when stacks are shallow compared to the pot. you just assume you have the best hand on most flops, get the money in, often stack TP. yes, we might allow ourselves to get outdrawn, but it's a cash game, not a tournament. you play for every edge you can get, not for survival. AA in a 3 or 4-way pot still has lots of $ edge.

the alternative is rereraising out of position after a raise and a reraise, which exudes tons of strength and often kills your action. of course you should reraise here with AA sometimes to cover up for the times when you do it with a less powerful hand. but to think that, at these stakes, AA (and sometimes KK) isnt smoothcalling a decent amount of the time is wrong.

although i agree i don't like it much with JJ, and it's far less likely, but still possible.

but KQ?! that's just fishing for hands we can beat. there was no read included that villain is a completely horrible player. if he were, hero probably would have called. he never has KQ here (or QJ or 66 for that matter), based on preflop, and really really rarely has AQ. only draw that would be even possible would be AKs and a) this is also fairly unlikely for reasons i mentioned in my last post, and b) for all reasonable purposes, this is our best case scenario and we're not that much of a favorite. every other reasonable holding has us crushed

I think saying he probably has AA / KK is fishing for hands that beat us, even though they usually don't play it like this. Hands like KQ, QJ and 66 are totally possible. Any reasonable holding that calls a raise pre-flop will have odds to call in position when two others have called a re-raise. Think about it, he's getting about 6:1 on a call to see a flop from position. Folding anything at all is terrible.

Bombjack said:

Hands like KQ, QJ and 66 are totally possible.

Click to expand...

If you don't get how ridiculously unlikely he is to overcall out of position for a large portion of his stack, with a usually-dominated-even-on-the-33%-chance-it-hits KQ or QJ when there are other players to act who can re-raise him out of the pot, then there's no sense of me trying to make points with you. it's just so mindblowingly awful. this isnt micro-limits, yo. and there's no read involved that the guy is completely terrible. all you can do in poker is put your opponent on a range that makes any kind of sense, and play against it. imo, KQ and QJ should not be a remote consideration. if you don't agree with me on that basic of a point, we're not going to agree on the rest of the hand, but that's the beauty of poker

edit: wait, "getting 6:1 on a call to see a flop from position"? dude, you've read the hand wrong. read it over again. it's the big blind, not the button. and he overcalled a reraise preflop.

Oh right I thought it was the button that shoved. Makes KQ/QJ unlikely as you say.