Nut flush, paired board

Bombjack

Bombjack

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My notes on this guy say "bets flush draws".
Question is, how much do you raise on the river? Fairly fine point but just want to get some opinions.


Texas Hold'em $0.50-$1 NL (real money), hand #1,297,758,844
Table Zamboanga, 25 Nov 2006 5:57 AM ET

Seat 2: lonns2 ($84.75 in chips)
Seat 6: Bombjack_x [ :as4:,:7s4: ] ($51.85 in chips)
Seat 10: chur bo ($60.00 in chips)

ANTES/BLINDS
chur bo posts blind ($0.25), lonns2 posts blind ($0.50).

PRE-FLOP
Bombjack_x bets $1.50, chur bo folds, lonns2 calls $1.

FLOP [board cards :8h4:,:2h4:,:2s4: ]
lonns2 checks, Bombjack_x checks.

TURN [board cards 8h,2h,2s,:qs4: ]
lonns2 bets $2.50, Bombjack_x calls $2.50.

RIVER [board cards 8H,2H,2S,QS,:10s4: ]
lonns2 bets $10, Bombjack_x...:confused:
 
shinedown.45

shinedown.45

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I would raise at least $10-20,anything higher than that might make him fold.
 
NotoriousDeano

NotoriousDeano

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Yeah, $10-$20-$25 seems like a reasonable raise and should get him to call.
 
t1riel

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You need to raise but not too much for your opponent to fold. I would say $15-$20 more.
 
Bombjack

Bombjack

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I raised to $25 total and he called with [ks][5s]. I wasn't sure I'd got full value.

His overbet on the river despite an apparent scare card tells me he has a strong hand, and I was wondering if I should have gone all-in.

I think the paired board had some influence. It's possible, albeit unlikely on reflection, that he has a full house (88, TT, QQ re-raise pre-flop; 82, T2, Q2 fold), but from his point of view it's possible that I could. Unlikely though, since excepting 88 for a flopped boat, I'm unlikely to check behind on this flop.

Given he has the K-high flush, he's probably calling if I go all-in. But I suppose his range is actually quite large - something like AQ or QT might play similarly - so do I need to size my raise so these hands call as well?
 
Bombjack

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Co-incidentally enough, was just reading Sklansky & Miller's No Limit Hold'em - Theory and Practice last night, and he pretty much covers this scenario in the first chapter. He talks about a situation where you're holding T7 and the board is 9-8-6-5-4. Your opponent bets into you, you have the nuts, but he could have a strong hand with a 7 - or he could just have a set. They say the best move is to go all-in rather than betting something that is likely to be called, because the all-in generally has a higher expectation, despite not being called as often. So I think all-in was the right move here... anyone disagree?
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

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In these scenarios you need to ask three main questions.

1) Is there anything in villain's range that he calls a near-pot bet that he doesn't call a push with (and that you beat)? The more hands there are in this 'sub-range', the greater the argument for a standard raise.

I don't think there are many hands that apply here. Maybe something like a mid-pp or Qx, but we can't be anywhere near certain of this. Pushing isn't that far removed in $ terms from near-pot betting because of stack sizes, and a push to some players in this spot might look like more of a steal attempt than a 'standard' raise. Argument for pushing.

2) If villain pushes over the top of a standard raise, are you going to call? The easier it is for you to call, the greater the argument for just pushing.

If we raise to $25 and villain pushes we're obviously calling because of stack sizes, the odds we'll be getting, and the fact we have a big hand. Argument for pushing.

3) How likely is it that villain will call a push or call/raise a pot bet with a hand you beat? The less likely it is, the greater the argument for a call as opposed to a raise.

If villain has a hand that beats us, he's pretty obviously pushing against standard raise. However, there are many more hands that we beat and are calling us as opposed to hands that are beating us, especially as the pair on board is deuces (a lot less scary than a board with say paired Kings and other high cards) and we can generally rule out QQ because of the action prior to the river. Argument for making a raise, not calling.

Basically, ask all three questions and formulate an action based on your answers. Here, all the signals appear to point to raising as opposed to calling, and to that raise being a push as opposed to a standard raise.

In a tournament with equivalent stacks and against a very loose pf player I might even just call the river, but in a cash game, without any huge 'nit' reads you have to push your edge here.
 
loopmeister

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Harrington reckons about half his remaining stack is a good number to start from.
 
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