Nut flush draw vs all-in

Seat 1: Bombjack_x [ , ] ($117.40 in chips)
Seat 3: geisi22 ($59.70 in chips)
Seat 4: Super-tilt ($49.25 in chips)
Seat 6: rikiplatplat ($92.05 in chips)
Seat 9: Villain ($49.50 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
Villain posts blind ($0.25), Bombjack_x posts blind ($0.50).

PRE-FLOP
geisi22 calls $0.50, Super-tilt folds, rikiplatplat folds, Villain bets $2, Bombjack_x calls $1.75, geisi22 calls $1.75.

FLOP [board cards ,, ]
Villain bets $4, Bombjack_x bets $10, geisi22 folds, Villain bets $43.25 and is all-in, Bombjack_x...

To save you having to work it out, there's $64 in the pot, and it's $37.25 for me to call.

Honestly, I would have just called on the flop. $4 is much to chase the nut flush. Right now, you have Ace high. I don't think your have your opponent beat. If would have just called, your opponent wouldn't have gone all in. Well, now your in this position, I say fold. Do you really want to risk another $37.25 and pray for a club or an Ace, providing your opponent doesn't have A, K?

I like the raise on the flop. I gotta say fold now though. He played the hand extremly well, and is obviously protecting a good hand. Calling here could see you against 2 pair/set or even a small made flush with some suited connectors.

who is he?

Need a good read on your Villian to be certain - but most likely a fold. You're certainly not getting the odds for a draw, so unless you put your opponent on a complete bluff, you're getting negative returns on this one. I doubt he has two clubs (preflop raise, and you know he doesn't have the A or K), but if he has any other K, or any pocket-pair that just made a set, you're the dog by a significant percentage.

so unless you've really got a feeling that this guy has nothing, I think you have to fold and wait for the next time...

you could be smoked if hes trixy like me and would raise 56c

OK maths time. From a pot odds perspective, this is a call if I have more than (37.25)/(64+37.25) = 36.8% equity.

Let's cover a few scenarios:

1) Villain has a made flush
If he has random cards, his chances of having 2 clubs, given I've seen 4 already, are (9/47*8/46) = 3.3%.

There's an argument to say people raise more often with suited cards... not sure I buy it though, because people also raise more with pairs, which are never suited. Also, the Ace and King of Clubs are out, taking away a large part of his suited Clubs raising range, so the figure above is probably a maximum.

Say he has [qc][jc]. I have 28.9% equity so it's a fold.

2) Villain is protecting a high pair, AK or AA
With [ah][kh] or [ah][ad] I have 37.4% equity so it's a call.

3) Villain has high pair without the Ace
With [kd][qd] I have 46.7% equity so it's a clear call
With [kd][qc] I have 43.7% equity - also a call
With [jd][jc] I have 49.5% - call
With [qd][qc] I have 43.9% - call

4) Villain has a set
With [kd][kh] or [7d][7h] or [4d][4h] - 28.3% - fold

I don't know exactly how to quantify the likelihood of his flopping a set... here's my estimate: say he's raising 20% of the time pre-flop, and raises with any pair, he'll have a pair 1 in 17 times, so that's (1/17)/(1/5) = 5/17 times he raises. He'll flop a set just under one time in 8, so that's about a 3.7% chance he raises and hits a set (obviously more likely given the action so far on the hand).

5) Bluff with other raising hand
I'm a favourite over pretty much any other raising hand, e.g. I'm 51.8% vs [10d][10h]

In summary it's a call so long as Villain doesn't have a set or made flush. Both of these fit the action so far, although the set may well just call the raise and hope to fill up.

There's a pretty similar hand here on YouTube between Kid Poker and Barry Greenstein, if anyone's interested.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkhutZUgCkg&mode=related&search=

looking at the math, you're right - its probably a call, given that it's unlikely (between the odds of him having two clubs, and the fact he raised PF when you know both the Ac and Kc weren't in his hand).
So if he doesn't have 2 clubs, at very worst (he hit trips, or has AK), your draw odds are around 30%, and the pot odds are around 37%. I'm willing to bet on my ability to read someone with that close a margin, so it becomes a judgment call.
And there's plenty of other hands he could have that give you a good percentage to call.



My best guess on his hand, though (based on the old "what cards would lead ME to bet this way") is or KxQc or KxJc - it justifies both the PF raise, and a big flop bet (top pair, good kicker - with a draw to high flushes). Although I think all-in was a mistake for him regardless - its too much risk on a hand that can be broken by too many things you could be holding.

I'd instinctively call this at this point. It's around 1/3 for you to catch the flush which is about the odds you're getting. There's an outside possibility an A is good too, and he could be blufing, which for me balances out the fact you're getting slightly under the odds you want.

It's not a great position to be in, you're 50/50 to win or loose, but now that you're in this spot call every time.

Bleh, should have said I think it's 50/50 whether you make profit or not - I think this is pretty much a break even play in the long run.

But win or loose, it establishes you as a loose player who's prepared to go all the way on a gamble. I find my big hands get a lot more action after a move like this in a cash game.

I think it's not much of a mistake to call or fold as it seems to be pretty borderline. As it played out, I called and he showed [5c][3c]. Turn and river were [9s] and [2h] so I lost. Maybe a pre-flop re-raise was in order.

WWTJD? What would T.J. do? I know I wouldn't make the call, given that you might be up against a made hand already, plus your hand is probably dead if the board pairs. Odds make it a coin-toss, but sometimes it's ok to err on the side of caution.

Bombjack said:

I think it's not much of a mistake to call or fold as it seems to be pretty borderline. As it played out, I called and he showed 5♣3♣. Turn and river were 9♠ and 2♥ so I lost. Maybe a pre-flop re-raise was in order.

Click to expand...

It's funny, I would never have put him on this hand, but his betting makes perfect sense now that I know his cards. PF raise was an attempt to buy it - he's in the SB with only one limper in the pot so far, so that's pefectly fine.

a decent bet on the flop - he's got a baby flush, so he wants to earn some money. When you go over the top of him, he pretty much has to go all in to protect himself from a high club or a two-pair.

oh, BTW - I don't think a PF raise would have been good. It turns out you would have probably have won the pot PF that way, but with AQ in the BB, you should be happy playing for around 4xBB - and by flat calling you're not seen as the "leader" if you did hit one of your pairs. You end up well setup for a slow play if you hit, or to get a call if you bet big because the other players don't put you on the AQ.