NL50 FR: QQ for overpair on scary board faces shove in BvB

WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Villain is 36/7/3 over 25 hands.

Should we be calling the turn raise?

Betting river? Calling river?

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HAND #1
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Full Tilt, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

MP1: $50 (100 bb)
MP2: $67.10 (134.2 bb)
MP3: $50 (100 bb)
CO: $150.40 (300.8 bb)
BTN: $100 (200 bb)
Hero (SB): $144.45 (288.9 bb)
BB: $69.70 (139.4 bb)
UTG+2: $78.45 (156.9 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with Q
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Q
club.gif

6 folds, Hero raises to $2, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4) 6
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8
spade.gif
T
spade.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $3, BB calls $3

Turn: ($10) T
diamond.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $6.50, BB raises to $23.50, Hero calls $17

River: ($57) 9
heart.gif
(2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $41.20 and is all-in, Hero ???
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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being bvb this is a bit special, but even if villain likes to bluff, there's not so much you still beat on the river. I fold. Folding turn if probably fine too. It's a beluga, after all.

Line-wise, I think i don't bet the turn and check-call twice instead. Gets a little cheaper and includes more bluffs in villain's range.
 
B

baudib1

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In situations like this, esp. in positional battles in 6-max, reads are more important imo than stats.

The board is so wet, especially in BvB, I think I bet pot on the flop, but that's minor.

It sucks but I think river is a clear fold as you only beat a bluff. Even if he doesn't have the T, because this is BvB the turn bet could be a bluff with hands like 87, 76 that got there on the river.
 
D

DatDerCelTec

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With straight and set possibilities you have to fold here. It sucks but without a strong read this guy is bluffing you, the fact he has position even though by this point it is irrelavant, and the fact you only have 1 pair. I think more often than not a fold here will be plus EV in the long run.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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Whether or not to bet the turn is really close, and with only 25 hands I think it's a toss-up.

That said, I think bet/shoving the turn may be the way to go here. My reasoning is this:

Any hand that beats us is going to stack us on most rivers anyway (if we're not willing to call a river shove, we should probably fold to the turn raise). If the river is the deuce of clubs, are we check/folding? No. We're going to snapcall his river bet. Or I would, anyway. This reasoning goes for most cards on the river. So in that sense, shoving the turn won't cost us much extra the times that he has a ten, because he'd have stacked us the vast majority of times on the river anyway.

But we do have some fold equity, or at the very least we can charge him for draws. And we don't have to wonder what the right move is when the river completes a draw. The fact that you're playing a little deep makes things trickier, but I still think it works out.

The fact that you're deep, incidentally, might be an argument for not c-betting this flop.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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The fact that you're deep, incidentally, might be an argument for not c-betting this flop.

+1

hand is somewhat marginal on flop when we're so deep and out of position.

on the other hand, if we check flop and villain bets into us on flop, i'd be tempted to CR overbet which looks a lot like a draw and can get called by much worse, imo. Then you have a decent SPR (stack to pot ratio) to play the rest of the hand with your overpair.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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I called (what can I say, I'm a station) and he showed air ( [Ah] [Qs] ). I really thought at the time calling the turn raise was spew and I'm sure more often than not it is, but once I called the turn raise I felt I had to call his river shove.
 
B

baudib1

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Personally I think it's more profitable to be a bluff-catcher than a bluffer, but then again I'm a station, too. gc nh

P.S. I don't understand not cbetting this flop.
 
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