Originally Posted by Munchrs
because our flop bet has been raised indicating strength, and then villian has followed it up with a big juicy turn bet indicating more strength and willingness to get into a big pot. From both these actions we can safely assume that a very large % of the time we will be behind with TPTK now and at showdown and that villian will bet the river which would mean we would of called $26 to fold alot of times on the river. Effectively i feel that villian wont check behind often enough to warrant calling the $26 on the turn.
Also if we call we will have roughly $50 left with the pot being $100 and if villian bets we are getting at worst 3:1 on our money which are pretty good odds to be calling with TPTK.
So if we call the turn bet we are commited to calling a river bet. Professional No limit by ed miller and co. covers this very extensively.
If we call the turn bet and c/f we are wasting money and making an overall loosing play.
I disagree with PNL extensively claiming that we're committed to calling a river bet. We will get 3:1 or something similar, but what I'm suggesting is that we're not ahead 25% of the time on the river, so we can't call a river bet, because if a decent player bets in position on the river, his range is polarized towards strong hands and bluffs, and it sort of ends up being a "I know that you know that I know" where because
we called the turn, he might not dare to bluff the river. And I definitely don't expect him to bet KJ or KQ too often.
Throwing in some ranges and our respective equity on the turn:
Tight range: KK+,55,22,AKs,KQs,AKo,KQo - 44%
Wider range: 55+,22,AKs,KJs+,AKo,KJo+ - 73%
The idea that he'd follow up the turn with another bet with 77+ is not that far-fetched, if someone thought so, btw. It's a decent protection/bluff bet. He might be able to fold out higher PPs on a K-high board, while simultaneously denying high-card hands the chance of a free card. And if nothing else, our "gain" in equity for those hands is at least somewhat offset by the fact that I added AA and KK to his range, which seems unlikely given preflop action.
Either way, presuming that he's somewhere in between 44% and 73%, giving up on the turn is expensive, but the reason we give up on the turn is because we don't want to commit on the river, right? And my question remains: Unless he will bluff three barrels "often" (or "enough"), why are we afraid to call a turn bet with good equity and simply read his hand for stronger than ours the times he bets the river as well?
Let me put it differently:
If he bets the turn, and god stops time and tells
us that if we call, he - god - will stop time again and turn over our opponent's cards before the river, then it seems to me that we have a clear call because we will be able to fold and call the river perfectly, depending on what hand our opponent has. And we already know we can call the turn profitably as long as we don't screw up on the river.
So when we check the river and our opponent bets, do we ever have the best hand? What part of the respective ranges that I posted (unless you disagree with them) does he bet on the river that we beat? We don't have
to call the river just because we have TPTK and get 3:1; that's nonsense. We can fold, if we think he's very unlikely to bet a worse hand.
Against semi-unknowns, this could be difficult, because we don't know whether or not he'd bet three barrels with KQ, but then again, with at least some notion of tight/lag (and the stats were 6/6/0) we should be able to make a good estimation.
Minimum EV of calling if we play the river perfectly (the god scenario):
50% of the time, we lose $26.
50% of the time, we win $77.
EV = 0.5 * (-26 + 77) = $25.5.
Stepping away from god for a moment, then, it's clear that if we are to lose money from calling the turn, we have to make a $25.50 mistake or worse on the river. The pot is going to be ~$100 if we call. If our plan is to always fold when he bets, he needs to be betting the river with a worse hand 25% of the time.
Differently put, unless our friend bluffs the river very frequently, we win money by calling the turn.
Or where am I going wrong?