[NL$100 FR] TPGK for mini-stacks ?

Button is one of these Sunday regs, seems decent enough, only buy's in semi-short for $60 each time though. Hes playing 16/8/3 over 1,100 hands. Folds to c-bet 80% and raises c-bet the rest. His 3bet% is 3.4 so I'd expect AK/AQ to re-pop preflop. This spot is happening to me lots over the last few days.

poker stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

UTG: $98.50 (98.5 bb)
UTG+1: $136.50 (136.5 bb)
MP1: $129.50 (129.5 bb)
MP2: $122.60 (122.6 bb)
MP3: $112.25 (112.3 bb)
Hero (CO): $152.15 (152.2 bb)
BTN: $63.20 (63.2 bb)
SB: $86 (86 bb)
BB: $103 (103 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with J A
5 folds, Hero raises to $4, BTN calls $4, 2 folds

Flop: ($9.50) T 2 A (2 players)
Hero bets $6, BTN raises to $18

He is never value raising worse. I doubt you see much semi bluff raising of A high flops in position with like a FD or plain bluff raising with like 55 or something.

If you think villain is inclined to bluff raise (ie. you have seen him give up/showdown bad with alot of that 20%) then i guess you could call flop then fold turn, but if villain is inclined to barrel after raising cbet, i think you just have to fold coz i don't like calling down here at all given board/stack sizes/position.

20% raise is alot, but this is not a board most ppl would bluff raise (tho it isn't a horrible board to do so, but you still have alot of aces in your range) and even a semi bluff with a flush draw isn't that likely (explained below) so i'd just pitch it unless you really think villain is likely to be turning a hand like 55 into a bluff and will give up if the flop raise is called. I think AK and AQ could certainly be in villain's range given he has position and is short and doesn't 3B much, etc.

The thing you have to realise is that villain should never be doing this with a hand like A9. So you can't jam it and really get called by much worse. It could possibly be a flush draw on occasioan i guess, but 1. there aren't many flush draw combos with the A and T gone and 2 of them have huge combo draws (KQ/QJ) so you are what hoping that 89 or 78 is in villain's pf range? Again, nor do i think that a small flush draw is raising here because you don't fold out anything you can't float out, so you get a free card and don't commit yourself vs a hand villain isn't folding here (a strong ace). And in any case, you are looking at like 3 combos, which counts for nothing when considering the other option that have you crushed. All that is left is a hand that whiffed turning itself into a bluff, and i really think that this is not a board this sort of guy would decide to bluff raise 55 or something on (he is just too short, there are just too many aces in your range - in villain's eyes at least).

So yea i fold. I don't like the call flop, fold turn line, unless you really have a read that this guy might bluff raise a flop like this and then give up. With 80% cbet he clearly doesn't mind folding, so why would he get all crazy on this sort of flop that nails your range?

Good question. I too would like to know the answer, though it's one of the reasons I've stopped betting out here, looking to confuse with a check-call bet on occassion.

I don't cbet this flop, he's not folding better than AJ and won't give us several streets of value with worse anyway, so I like a check-call.

I agree with the check call in this kind of spot, saving you from getting raised potentially and letting him bluff into you with a worse hand and saving you money if he does have you, which i doubt. You definitely get more value check-calling the dude down, unless he big bets the turn then you got to re-evaluate whats going on.