NL $100, AA on a paired board with small action.

[tenbob]

pokerstars Game #14796959262: Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2008/01/24 - 18:49:28 (ET)
Table 'Geminid' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: tenbob ($174.45 in chips)
Seat 2: NaturalOne ($29.90 in chips)
Seat 3: HuGaDaS ($122.10 in chips)
Seat 4: zo1216 ($85 in chips)
Seat 5: TEACH604 ($186.45 in chips)
Seat 6: McFiddish ($113.75 in chips)
Seat 7: Khelek777 ($115.35 in chips)
Seat 8: GGTDM ($60.25 in chips)
Seat 9: Blockie80 ($138.30 in chips)
GGTDM: posts small blind $0.50
Blockie80: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to tenbob [Ac Ad]
tenbob: raises $3 to $4
NaturalOne: folds
HuGaDaS: folds
zo1216: calls $4
TEACH604: calls $4
McFiddish: folds
Khelek777: folds
GGTDM: calls $3.50
Blockie80: folds
*** FLOP *** [Ts 2s Th]
GGTDM: checks
tenbob: bets $10
zo1216: calls $10
TEACH604: calls $10
GGTDM: folds
*** TURN *** [Ts 2s Th] [7d]
tenbob: checks
zo1216: bets $10
TEACH604: calls $10
tenbob: folds

Both villians are unknown.

 

[zachvac]

I think this is a good fold, assuming the people you are playing are good players. It doesn't matter that each player is calling and betting, it's the action they should see and the fact that they still are in the hand. Despite several people in preflop 2/3 called behind you on the flop cbet. Knowing that there are 3 people who put in $10 on the flop and still one behind, the one villain still fires out a $10 turn bet and gets a call. Apart from other over pairs, I'm thinking one of them has trips. Of course you could easily be up against 2 JJ-KK hands, but the fact that you have huge reverse implied odds, as if the villain is ahead they know it, so they'll keep the pot small (and you'll gladly comply) with hands you have beat, and with trips or maybe a set (for a flopped full boat) will stack and you either have to fold after putting more of your stack in or else stack off with a hand when you're likely beat.

 

[Bentheman87]

If I did the math right, you were getting almost 7:1 on the turn bet. I would have called a small bet like that, there's some chance you have the best hand. Of course, if you were beat you'd be pretty much dead, one of them might have a ten or a boat. But when you bet on the flop, from their point of view it's a harmless flop and they coulda put you on AK or AQ and called with small pairs. Or they coulda called with AK or AQ thinking you were bluffing.

 

[WVHillbilly]

Good but tough fold. One of the has you beat (maybe both). Would you have got any callers (maybe only 1) with a bigger preflop raise or would a min bet have been raised allowing you to reraise?

 

[baconn]

You should have called, you were getting good odds. None of them are showing any real strength, I wouldn't put any of them on a 10. You probably still have the best hand.

 

[Tygran]

Hrm.. Probably a good fold, I'd imagine one of them has a T and one of them has a pp somewhere between 77 and QQ.

OTOH from their perspective the $10 calls aren't terrible if they both have pp's on the flop.. your bet looks alot like a cbet possibly with overs and then checking the turn would give a JJ/QQ/99/88 type hand more reason to think they could have the best hand and encourage those hands to bet out another $10 on the turn.

You could also have an A-x of spades tagging along.

So... I'm not sure now. You are getting 7.3:1 on the call. I think I might call this anyway and call a similar river bet. If they suddenly get into a raise war on the river then yeah I'd fold but I'd have to ch-call another smallish bet on the river if I called the turn assuming UI. I'm not completely convinced you have the worst hand, and if one of them has a ten you could stack him if you spiked an ace. You of course can't call just to try and spike the ace but I can easily believe a couple of pp's would bet/call this in this way..not just someone with a T.



I don't really mind the fold either though, it's safer.

 

[intlplaya]

What happened to your continuation bet?

I say you should have made a continuation bet vs. checking. A
continuation bet of 15 would give you good info if you get called
slow it down . Your opponents have not reraised you, you have
to see, I would say go to the river. The check showed weakness on
your part. You had top pair at the time. What if you hit A then you
would have the Full House.

 

[Krazy Kier]

I think this is a good fold, assuming the people you are playing are good players. It doesn't matter that each player is calling and betting, it's the action they should see and the fact that they still are in the hand. Despite several people in preflop 2/3 called behind you on the flop cbet. Knowing that there are 3 people who put in $10 on the flop and still one behind, the one villain still fires out a $10 turn bet and gets a call. Apart from other over pairs, I'm thinking one of them has trips. Of course you could easily be up against 2 JJ-KK hands, but the fact that you have huge reverse implied odds, as if the villain is ahead they know it, so they'll keep the pot small (and you'll gladly comply) with hands you have beat, and with trips or maybe a set (for a flopped full boat) will stack and you either have to fold after putting more of your stack in or else stack off with a hand when you're likely beat.

Assuming they ARE good players.. what kind of hand can you play a 10 with? A10? to a $4 raise? That is awful play.. I think that you made the wrong fold.. A paired flop just gives you a higher chance of having the winner and if they did have high PP's, AK or even AQ.. those are the hands you want them to have and be betting with in this kind of scenario.

 

[WVHillbilly]

At this level a $4 raise is pretty standard and after one caller the rest could tag along with suited connectors or small pp hoping to hit the flop. So 10J is definitely in range here as is 77 or 22, A10 maybe but less likely because we hold 2 aces and because most people know to fold it to a raise in a multi way pot.

 

[blankoblanco]

i dont hate it but may be -EV against unknowns. this could be 88 and a draw, 99 and a draw, 99 and 88, A7 and 88, etc. etc. any combination of those you want to make it

yeah, there will be a T, 22, or 77 often, but even the times there are, you're getting pretty decent implied odds to call and maybe hit a miracle A and stack one of aforementioned hands.. if it's the big stack with 22 or 77, you can actually be getting the right implied odds against those hands, weirdly enough. and direct odds of 7:1 are probably too good

 

[tenbob]

A10 would certainly be in the small blinds range, as a matter of fact, hands like 109s, J10s play very well here, and are certainly in both villians range. Every pair also plays well, so hands like 22 and 77 are also very viable options. Occasionally we will get a hand like JJ/QQ, KK will usually raise us pre-flop.

That $10 bet stinks, and if im going to play it, ive got a feeling here that ill be facing another bet likely bigger on the river.

 

[ChuckTs]

That $10 bet stinks, and if im going to play it, ive got a feeling here that ill be facing another bet likely bigger on the river.

That's exactly the problem - we're usually not getting a cheap showdown here.

I think this is fine although it is close - OOP I think a fold is best, not that I'd be able to do it myself.

 

[Bentheman87]

Ya know what, on second thought you made a big mistake folding. They may be trapping you but 7-1 is just too good of pot odds. Hands we are worried about are 2 2 and Ace ten. But 2 2 would have (probably) folded to a raise preflop, and Ace ten is unlikely since we have two of the aces. Would King ten or Q 10 or J10 really call a raise preflop? You should have check called on the turn. And on the river check called a small bet. If there's a lot of betting on the river maybe fold. You guys seem very scared that these small bets are sucker bets from someone with a full house or trips, but often online players will make small bets like this with draws or ace high or small pairs. Pot was large by the turn I think of one of them had a ten they'd try to take the pot down and bet a lot more than $10.

On the other hand this hand is a perfect example of reverse implied odds. You'll win the minimum if you have the best hand and lose the maximum if you have the worst hand.

 

[zachvac]

Assuming they ARE good players.. what kind of hand can you play a 10 with? A10? to a $4 raise? That is awful play.. I think that you made the wrong fold.. A paired flop just gives you a higher chance of having the winner and if they did have high PP's, AK or even AQ.. those are the hands you want them to have and be betting with in this kind of scenario.

Good players doesn't mean super TAG and plays only premiums. It means they make good decisions and are alert and observant. Watched any High Stakes Poker? These are some of the best players in the world calling preflop raises with like 83. Now not all of them do that and the ones who do are exceptional at post-flop play. It's just amazing how they can know exactly where they stand, from folding top pair K kicker and then calling down with A high. Good players don't just play premiums, they play hands well postflop as well. Some are supertight, but others loosen up and are great at playing their mediocre hands postflop.

 

[zachvac]

Ya know what, on second thought you made a big mistake folding. They may be trapping you but 7-1 is just too good of pot odds.

The thing with this is our odds of improving are worse than 7:1, so we're actually not getting odds to call. If we river an A, 2 outs, we can then assume we are good. We need around 12.5% here, we're getting just over 4%. So we are NOT getting odds here because there is another betting round on the river. You did nail it on the last sentence though.

On the other hand this hand is a perfect example of reverse implied odds. You'll win the minimum if you have the best hand and lose the maximum if you have the worst hand.

I mentioned this above as well. Good hands make us pay on the river and hands we have beat check behind us. So we are not getting odds to improve, and our implied odds are terrible. Unless we have some compelling reason to think that both of them have worse hands, this is a good fold. Tough fold, and one that I would almost certainly not make in the heat of the moment, but when examining it away from the table I do believe tenbob made a GREAT fold here.

 

[ChuckTs]

The thing with this is our odds of improving are worse than 7:1, so we're actually not getting odds to call. If we river an A, 2 outs, we can then assume we are good. We need around 12.5% here, we're getting just over 4%. So we are NOT getting odds here because there is another betting round on the river. You did nail it on the last sentence though.

Well this isn't really accurate since we're not always behind here, and don't need that 22:1 (assuming 2 outs).

I do still agree that a fold is probably best here, but not by the logic that we're always behind.

 

[Bentheman87]

"The thing with this is our odds of improving are worse than 7:1, so we're actually not getting odds to call. If we river an A, 2 outs, we can then assume we are good. We need around 12.5% here, we're getting just over 4%. So we are NOT getting odds here because there is another betting round on the river. You did nail it on the last sentence though."

You're assuming we are already beat, but I feel pretty confident we have the best hand here. And if we did know 100% for sure (which is impossible) that we were beaten, then we'd need to be getting about 22:1 to call on the turn to try to hit a 2 outer.

 

[WVHillbilly]

I think it's safe to assume we're beat. It's such a dry board that getting any action at all is bad. What range of hands not including a 10 or a pp that just made a FH would you put our TWO opponents on here that make them keep throwing their $$ in the middle? We may have on of them covered but we're losing this hand more often than not.

 

[Tygran]

I think it's safe to assume we're beat. It's such a dry board that getting any action at all is bad. What range of hands not including a 10 or a pp that just made a FH would you put our TWO opponents on here that make them keep throwing their $$ in the middle? We may have on of them covered but we're losing this hand more often than not.

First off remember these are unknown players. We have no idea how loose/tight/good/bad they are.

Secondly, I think you will see fairly often any of the following hands here: AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, QQ, JJ, 99, 88... other Ax of spades hands (particular A7).

Less common but you could still see something like 89 (esp if it's spades) here.

Wouldn't surprise me at ALL if you are up against any random 2 of these hands. Say we have one pretty weak player and one tight.. Tight guy has QQ and the lose guy has an AJ for the flush draw. Hardly improbable.

Doesn't mean you aren't up against T-x, 77 or 22 but I certainly don't think you can say with any amount of certainty that you are definitely up against one of those.



The one thing that I think will happen here is this. We will see bigger bets on the river IF there is a ten or a boat. If there isn't.. we could see another round of small bets again and/or a check down...

 

[tenbob]

First off remember these are unknown players. We have no idea how loose/tight/good/bad they are.

Surely we always assume that an unknown players is a good one. I certainly give them the benifit of the doubt until they prove otherwise, and against good players we are always beat here.

 

[WVHillbilly]

Did the hand reach showdown tenbob? Do we know what they had?

 

[Tygran]

Surely we always assume that an unknown players is a good one. I certainly give them the benifit of the doubt until they prove otherwise, and against good players we are always beat here.

Against two good players yeah I think we are beat here a good amount of the time but not always.

I'm not trying to argue for calling really, I said in my first post here I think folding is ok and definitely the safe play.

Maybe it's a leak in my game or maybe not but I think it's somewhat marginal either way (calling or folding). I would probably call this and reevaluate on the river.

 

[tenbob]

Did the hand reach showdown tenbob? Do we know what they had?

Yes and yes, ill post the results in a day or so. Decent discussion going on here.

 

[WVHillbilly]

Hell I'm arguing for folding but I'd probably call here too. That's why I suck.

 

[Bentheman87]

But what kind of ten - x hands do you guys think they might hold? I think if anyone has a ten it's teach, I could see him calling preflop with J 10 suited or 10 9 suited with decent pot odds and in position. Like I said Ace ten is unlikely cuz we have two of the aces. Hurry and post the actual hands tenbob! I'm gonna guess zo had 99 or 88 and teach had a flush draw like kq of spades or kj of spades.