Originally Posted by TheNoob
So even with my oversized counterbet, and understood without other data from the table that you don't have, if he raised my continuation bet are you saying going AI with the nut flush draw is a reasonable move?
I'm not going to ask you to do it, but at this early stage in my poker career, I'm simply going by the seat of my pants and the math that would help me to make that decision is beyond me.
A few things here:
1) C-bet stands for "continuation bet". Whenever you raise preflop, just bet ~2/3 of the pot no matter what comes out. The only flops I don't c-bet are like 789 with a flush draw out when I'm holding AQos.
2) Your c-bet size shouldn't change when you actually hit a hand. Players will pick up on this and exploit the hell out of it.
3) Yes, if he raises you, you want to shove over the top. Here's why:
You don't just have a flush draw, you have a nut flush draw, a nut straight draw (tens make you a straight), and 2 over cards. Even if your opponent has QQ, you're still 34% to win by the river. And you're a big favorite over a hand like QT (58%) & all other draws. If I'm check/raised on this board, I'm felting this draw every time.
Also, betting here, if you're called, will often get you a free card on the turn, or allow you to successfully semi-bluff the turn.
But the key here is that your hand doesn't mind action. And by betting this large, you're only getting action from a hand that beats you.
And lastly, and this is a key point: What are you doing in a 25$ NL short-handed game when you're new? Is your bankroll at least $750? I realize the rake at 10$ NL at full tilt is murder, but its better than playing above your bankroll & skill level.