New Hand Analysis of the Day

DMJN

DMJN

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5/10 NL at Wynn Macau


UTG opens for $50, 3 callers, I'm on the BB and look down at AA, I raise to $325, UTG Insta-calls, one other guy calls as well (we all have $3,000+ behind)

Flop is 2-4-7 (2 spades), perfect flop for me so I c-bet $615, initial guy folds, other guy in late position calls. Turn is the 6 of spades, flush and straights both get there. I decide to check, guy Insta shoves all in for $2,300+ -- I remember I had 2 black AA's so I know I have the re-draw to the nut flush but it's a lot to call.... What do you do here? Fold or call?

Note: Guy lost a $4,000 pot about 30 mins earlier and looks kinda tilted, had an almost $7K stack when I got to table - Asian, mid 30's, looks like a pro/grinder... So his range can be very wide at the moment.
 
Beanfacekilla

Beanfacekilla

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5/10 NL at Wynn Macau


UTG opens for $50, 3 callers, I'm on the BB and look down at AA, I raise to $325, UTG Insta-calls, one other guy calls as well (we all have $3,000+ behind)

Flop is 2-4-7 (2 spades), perfect flop for me so I c-bet $615, initial guy folds, other guy in late position calls. Turn is the 6 of spades, flush and straights both get there. I decide to check, guy Insta shoves all in for $2,300+ -- I remember I had 2 black AA's so I know I have the re-draw to the nut flush but it's a lot to call.... What do you do here? Fold or call?

Note: Guy lost a $4,000 pot about 30 mins earlier and looks kinda tilted, had an almost $7K stack when I got to table - Asian, mid 30's, looks like a pro/grinder... So his range can be very wide at the moment.


It's like a pot size shove. We are getting 2 to 1, which means we have to win 1/3 of the time to make call neutral EV (if we behind). We are not 33% here if we are beat by straight /flush/2p/sets.

If this guy is a pro, or competent, he may have a pretty good idea what you have here. So, that being said, I think he probably can beat overpair? Who knows....

However, we checked Turn to him, which may in fact look something like A-K/A-Q.... we can't call with those hands, so we've given the dude rope to try and bluff us. This guy might even be value owning himself with some 7x or PP like 8-8+, and he really thinks he is betting for value/protection. This is also a point to consider.


It would be nice to know which board cards are spades OTF... someone could have SF if 4s-7s is on board, and turn rips 6s. It's possible. If flop 2s-4x-7s, it isn't. It's whatever, not super duper important, but if that 7 is a spade, or isn't, that's a factor for me... cause dude could definitely have 7s-Xs and play this way, and if he has a good read, he probably knows you have an overpair, and will probably call with some overpair with a spade... food for thought...


So, anyways, I think this one comes down to the read... him losing a big pot shouldn't matter that much if he's a real pro, like you suspect.... but our image is important too...



What is our image? Have we been active in the last few orbits? Are we a nit, do our opponents think we are a nit? Have we made bad calls yet? Have we 3b pre in a similar spot with some spec hands like 7-8s (where they actually saw our cards at showdown)?? All these things matter.... Is our range going to be balanced, or do our opponents think we have AA because we are playing predictably? Like have we/haven't we 3b light and squeeze/iso wide/etc?? I'm just asking of V knows what we have, or we have taken steps to balance... It is $5/$10 so I would think an opponent who thinks would have things like this on his mind.



I lean towards calling, but I would have to be there, at the table, in that moment, and I don't really have enough information in this case... but this is what I think based on the limited info. It's close... I only "lean" toward calling because we checked the turn, and how this opponent will interpret that action. However, if we're beat, price isn't correct soooooooo, who knows.

If I did call, I would brace myself for the outcome, knowing we are gonna lose a fair amount of the time making this call. It's risky, and V could very well have a monster here, or he could have Ks-7h...., or Xs-7s, but we don't know which board cards are spades. Just don't expect to win if ya call. We are bluff-catching with a re-draw.




Now I ask you to look at bold section in your post above......

I don't know if that was your thought process during the hand, or if the way you worded it after the fact is why you put it that way, but it suggests that you didn't think about the suits of your A-A until you were faced with the decision on the turn. We should have a plan for the hand on the flop, like what we will do if a bad card like this rolls off, do we check to induce? Do we just keep blasting away? What is our plan? You should probably know what to do, based on that table, the dynamics of the game, the image you have on the table (which you didn't really mention).



I guess that's all I have to say about this one.. hope it helps. And these stakes are above me. I play 2/5 now, and just moved up recently, so it may be over my head. These are just my thoughts, and would be on my mind to an extent real time if I'm thinking clearly/on A game.
 
MsNutHand

MsNutHand

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That is why I prefer to shove my AA pre-flop always to avoid that marginal or worse hands can call me and find a better flop and board than me and let me in this umconfortable situation and doubt and considering missing/folding my valuable AA and still losing the chips of my raise!
But in this case if you ser that the guy looks tilted and you have nut flush draw and the top over pair possible maybe the opponent have a AK or a KK, QQ in hand and also cobsidered the board good assuming that you do note have AA. So I would call or shove with my AA.
 
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Pavel Stezhkin

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My opinion is that in online poker hand of AA is as strong as in the real world. But it can not be overstated, it does not necessarily winning, and it should be understood. If the board cards that can complement a strong draw koombinatsiyu and your opponent boldly goes forward, it is better to make a pass.
 
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RakeMyLife

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Just my opinion I think u have to call. The pot has bloated so that his shove is more or less just a strong bet. The fact that it's an insta shove is the trickiest part...makes me think he does not have something like a mid pair redraw or set since he'd have to figure out how to proceed with those hands (and probably take a free one). Just feels as though he wants u out of the hand and puts u on a big pair or AK.

Last thing I would say is don't play those stakes if all in bets or the pot size changes ur decision making! Imagine this scenario at 1/2 and u have $300 behind. Does ur play change here?

Another thing is ur image might suffer with a fold here. Other players will just see a strong pre, c-bet, then fold to pressure on a scary board. Just a thought...
 
PHX

PHX

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With the re-draw and the possible tilt factor you mentioned I think you have to call. Not too worried about the straight or flush I think a set is a bigger part of range here. Could be wrong though as we don't have much information in terms of image and past hands from villain and also your image.

I see Asian in your description the first hand comes to my mind in this spot is pocket 8s . Around that range with a spade would probably play it this way also.
 
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