Originally Posted by DMJN
5/10 NL at Wynn Macau
UTG opens for $50, 3 callers, I'm on the BB and look down at AA, I raise to $325, UTG Insta-calls, one other guy calls as well (we all have $3,000+ behind)
Flop is 2-4-7 (2 spades), perfect flop for me so I c-bet $615, initial guy folds, other guy in late position calls. Turn is the 6 of spades, flush and straights both get there. I decide to check, guy Insta shoves all in for $2,300+ -- I remember I had 2 black AA's so I know I have the re-draw to the nut flush but it's a lot to call.... What do you do here? Fold or call?
Note: Guy lost a $4,000 pot about 30 mins earlier and looks kinda tilted, had an almost $7K stack when I got to table - Asian, mid 30's, looks like a pro/grinder... So his range can be very wide at the moment.
It's like a pot size shove. We are getting 2 to 1, which means we have to win 1/3 of the time to make call neutral EV (if we behind). We are not 33% here if we are beat by straight /flush/2p/sets.
If this guy is a pro, or competent, he may
have a pretty good idea what you have here. So, that being said, I think he probably can beat overpair? Who knows....
However, we checked Turn to him, which may in fact look something like A-K/A-Q.... we can't call with those hands, so we've given the dude rope to try and bluff us. This guy might even be value owning himself with some 7x or PP like 8-8+, and he really thinks he is betting for value/protection. This is also a point to consider.
It would be nice to know which board cards are spades OTF... someone could have SF if 4s-7s is on board, and turn rips 6s. It's possible. If flop 2s-4x-7s, it isn't. It's whatever, not super duper important, but if that 7 is a spade, or isn't, that's a factor for me... cause dude could definitely have 7s-Xs and play this way, and if he has a good read, he probably knows you have an overpair, and will probably call with some overpair with a spade... food for thought...
So, anyways, I think this one comes down to the read... him losing a big pot shouldn't matter that much if he's a real pro, like you suspect.... but our image is important too...
What is our image? Have we been active in the last few orbits? Are we a nit, do our opponents think we are a nit? Have we made bad calls yet? Have we 3b pre in a similar spot with some spec hands like 7-8s (where they actually saw our cards at showdown)?? All these things matter.... Is our range going to be balanced, or do our opponents think we have AA because we are playing predictably? Like have we/haven't we 3b light and squeeze/iso wide/etc?? I'm just asking of V knows what we have, or we have taken steps to balance... It is $5/$10 so I would think an opponent who thinks would have things like this on his mind.
I lean towards calling, but I would have to be there, at the table, in that moment, and I don't really have enough information in this case... but this is what I think based on the limited info. It's close... I only "lean" toward calling because we checked the turn, and how this opponent will interpret that action. However, if we're beat, price isn't correct soooooooo, who knows.
If I did call, I would brace myself for the outcome, knowing we are gonna lose a fair amount of the time making this call. It's risky, and V could very well have a monster here, or he could have Ks-7h...., or Xs-7s, but we don't know which board cards are spades. Just don't expect to win if ya call. We are bluff-catching with a re-draw.
Now I ask you to look at bold section in your post above......
I don't know if that was your thought process during the hand, or if the way you worded it after the fact is why you put it that way, but it suggests that you didn't think about the suits of your A-A until you were faced with the decision on the turn. We should have a plan for the hand on the flop, like what we will do if a bad card like this rolls off, do we check to induce? Do we just keep blasting away? What is our plan? You should probably know what to do, based on that table, the dynamics of the game, the image you have on the table (which you didn't really mention).
I guess that's all I have to say about this one.. hope it helps. And these stakes are above me. I play 2/5 now, and just moved up recently, so it may be over my head. These are just my thoughts, and would be on my mind to an extent real time if I'm thinking clearly/on A game.