Originally Posted by Dingodaddy23
I hate your flop raise because i think he 3-bets a king here, and most hands you are ahead of are folding.
I disagree that most hands that I'm ahead of are folding. There are a lot of face cards that will peel a flop checkraise, but even if he does fold A-J or something like that, I actually want him to fold. He has 6 live outs and is being offered at least 7:1. Him folding A-J is good for me.
But the raise is primarily for value, of course. Also, checkraising out of the BB is something I do fairly often, and sometimes with absolutely nothing. For my absolute-nothings to succeed I have to do it with real hands from time to time, too.
I'm not really sure what the alternative is, though. Are you suggesting that I fold? Or that I slowplay a pair of nines, queen-kicker?
my view when he calls is he plans to raise pretty much any turn. Now that you hit your trips, you lead and he raises as planned because the 9 probalbly doesnt change much in his eyes. After he raises turn, i definately put him on a king and 3-bet 100% of the time because most hands he would bet on the river are calling this 3-bet and river. I think going for river check-raise is awful because he checks a king behind OFTEN.
Let's look at the alternatives:
1. He has a king with some kind of kicker.
2. He has a huge hand, AA or now some kind of fullhouse.
3. He missed with his A-rag hand that he tried to steal with.
4. He has a 9 himself.
Actions that we can count on:
* His raise preflop doesn't tell us anything about either of these four being more likely than the other.
* He did NOT 3-bet the flop. Now, this means one of three things: He's either looking to score a cheap turn and find something he likes about it, he has a big hand and wants to lure me to bet again on the turn or he has a weak hand and is now looking to get to showdown cheaply.
* He raised the turn. There went the "go to showdown cheaply" scenario, unless he improved on this turn (which he might have - a hand with a 9 fits his play). It does shift the focus a lot more to him having a big hand, and somewhat deflates the possibility of him having missed the flop.
Very often, he'll have a strong hand at this point. Some portion of the time, let's say 10%, he's being very gutsy with an ace-high hand, and some of the time he has trips. When he raises this turn, does he ever have anything weaker than KJ?
... and would KJ really check behind on the river?
My argument for checkraising is that if he has a king, it's likely to be a strong one by the way he's played it, so if he has a king, I'm guaranteed two more bets from him anyway. What's interesting is what happens if he has a hand like A-J and is taking a shot at the pot.