Middle set versus flush and straight draws

10 handed live cash game, blinds are $.50 and $1

Stack sizes are approximate and I'm only listing the stacks of those involved in the hand. I was on the button.

Under the gun - $75
UTG+1 - $90
Buton (hero) - $170
Small blind - $25
Big Blind - $150

Dealt to hero: 9c, 9s

Small blind posts $.50
Big blind posts $1.00
UTG bets $4.50 total
UTG+1 calls
Hero calls
Small blind folds
Big blind folds

Pot is $15.00

FLOP - 4d, 9h, Jd

UTG bets $7.50
UTG+1 calls
Hero raises to $30
UTG calls
UTG+1 calls
Pot size is $105

TURN - 10h

UTG bets $20
UTG+1 raises all in for a total of $55.50
Hero???

I'm already upset with myself at this point for not shoving the flop - it would have put both players all-in and I'm fairly sure at least one of them would haver folded. My reads on the players are UTG is probably on an over pair - he has big problems putting other players on hands and probably doesn't even see the flush draw or the straightening cards on the board. He also has no concept of how it's a bad idea to bet $20 into a pot that's already got over $105 in it. It's UTG+1 who has me worried. I'm easily putting him on K,Q here, perhaps with both of them being diamonds. He'll call on a draw for sure, but I've never seen him put ALL of his money in the pot with anything but a very strong hand. I realize at this point it's $55 to me into a pot with $180.5 in it, but I'm extremely tempted to fold and hang on to the $55.

So my question is, should I call and hope he's 2 paired or hope for the board to pair on the river? Also, am I right that I should have showved on the flop rather than betting the pot? And should I have re-raied pre-flop with 9s?

The T only helped gutshots that stuck around. I can't see any way you can possibly fold this with all the money thats in the pot. Even if you are behind (which isn't as likely as you think) you still have 13 outs on the river and your hand is good by itself a good portion of the time here.

I don't know how you can put UTG+1 on KQ here, the only KQ hand that sticks around on this flop is KQd and makes up a very small portion of villains range. He could easily have hands like JT, J9, T8, or even be going crazy with Jx or some draw.

And no, you shouldn't just shove the flop. You don't want to chase draws out. You want to make them pay to draw by giving them incorrect odds, which you did. Even if UTG+1 shows up with KQ and he will fold to a shove but call the $30 raise it would be terrible to shove b/c he's not going to hit his gutshot most of the time and you'd be losing a ton of value by shoving.

Board is too drawy, and there are too many 2 pair combinations to fold. Raise to ~$40 on the flop too. It makes the turn a no-brainer (you can't ever fold). Even as played, I'm never folding this turn.

How isnt this already a no brainer, I initially thought the turn filled the flush draws, and I was still debating since you would almost be getting odds against a made flush. 55 into 180(200 if UTG calls which is likely and rarely if ever a hand that is beating you(TT maybe?) so thats over 3:1 either way, you have probably 8-9 outs, since 2 callers probably means someone has 2 pair, or at least pair hands.

This is a fistpump call. what are we worried about here TT and KQ? with this drawy of a board.

widowmaker89 said:

you would almost be getting odds against a made flush.

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Yeah, that's why raising more on the flop is better. Not only does it put more money in while we're way ahead, even if the flush hits on the turn, we're priced in, and have an easy decision.

widowmaker89 said:

How isnt this already a no brainer

This is a fistpump call. what are we worried about here TT and KQ? with this drawy of a board.

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Yes, I'm well aware that pot odds dictate a call here. I'm most concerned about my play after the flop.

The thing that's giving me trouble is I play with both these guys all the time. As I already wrote, UTG gives me no worries at all, it's UTG+1 who I have never seen (in three years of playing 3 nights a week with him) put all his money in a pot he doesn't believe he has locked up. $55 isn't a lot of money at one of our games, but it is enough to save and work back up because there's so much loose aggresion you can almost always get paid off by several people with your premium hands - and that's the only reason I'm considering a fold. I have such a strong feeling I'm beat my call would be a crying one.

But even if you KNOW villain has KQ you still have to call, because as you said you have pot odds. 3.6:1 pot odds and you have almost exactly the same odds of filling up.

You're right, so I called as did UTG.

UTG shows Ks, Kh
UTG+1 shows Qh, 8h (queen high straight with a flush draw)
I show 3 9s

The river card comes 4s and saves me pairing the board and giving me a boat.

Again, my biggest concern with the hand is that I was worried I didn't bet enough after the flop.