Middle set on dangerous board...

[l Love Beer]

I forget the muffy's stats, but i had a really hard time with this hand. Looking back i might have made the flop bet a little larger, but this had been my standard c-bet size. Any ideas?

Tilt poker game #7173103270: Table Misty Glenn - $0.10/$0.25 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:01:15 ET - 2008/07/11
Seat 1: ANT_NN ($9.50)
Seat 2: l Love Beer ($24.65)
Seat 4: muffymuff ($41.15)
Seat 5: yflomin ($24.55)
Seat 6: dan_schaf ($22.55)
Seat 7: Runaway Jiim ($6.25)
Seat 8: Marine J ($28.45)
Seat 9: Enigmma ($26.25)
yflomin posts the small blind of $0.10
dan_schaf posts the big blind of $0.25
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to l Love Beer [7s 7c]
Runaway Jiim folds
Marine J folds
Enigmma folds
ANT_NN folds
l Love Beer raises to $0.85
muffymuff calls $0.85
hungbydesign sits down
hungbydesign adds $10
yflomin folds
dan_schaf folds
*** FLOP *** [8c 7d 5d]
l Love Beer bets $1.25
muffymuff calls $1.25
*** TURN *** [8c 7d 5d] [Td]
l Love Beer has 15 seconds left to act
l Love Beer bets $3
muffymuff has 15 seconds left to act
muffymuff raises to $8
l Love Beer has 15 seconds left to act...???

 

[c9h13no3]

Get it in here. Only J9 hit, and that was a gutshot on the flop, so its unlikley he'd be calling on just a gutshot. Tons of hands just made 2 pair, or a pair and a straight draw here. And even if they have a flush/straight/whatever, you can still fill up on the river.

Also, I hate having a "standard c-bet size". You should just have a standard betsize for a situation. You're missing out on so much value if you just bet 3/4ths pot all the time.

/me votes for jamalam

 

[WVHillbilly]

Get it in here. Only J9 hit, and that was a gutshot on the flop, so its unlikley he'd be calling on just a gutshot. Tons of hands just made 2 pair, or a pair and a straight draw here. And even if they have a flush/straight/whatever, you can still fill up on the river.

Also, I hate having a "standard c-bet size". You should just have a standard betsize for a situation. You're missing out on so much value if you just bet 3/4ths pot all the time.

/me votes for jamalam

I'd think the flush to be much more likely than the straight, but I'm never doing anything but pushing here.

 

[Jillychemung]

Do you guys really see this line by the opponent as a bluff/TP so much of the time that a shove is +$ev here? With opponents stack and w/o reads wouldn't this be a made flush 90% of the time?

I agree that the flop bet should have been bigger, even over bet the pot because of the multiple draws here.

 

[c9h13no3]

With opponents stack and w/o reads wouldn't this be a made flush 90% of the time?

You think our opponent's range is 90% flushes?

 

[Jillychemung]

You think our opponent's range is 90% flushes?

Yep, that's what my hand histories show for these spots (granted I don't have a significant amount, ~100K, in the last 2 years).

AdXx is gonna flat us preflop and flop then (semi-)bluff raise on the turn?

What is opponent calling our preflop raise with - my range would be 22-TT, AXs, AJo+, suited connectors 89+. Now maybe that is too tight given the opponent is on the BTN and could be thinking CO is stealing.

What range are they flat,flat,raising with, my range - all flush draws, OESD and sets.

 

[paumarhas]

you guys really sound like you know what your talking about, very interesting. i'll be back. too bad beer, thats poker for you, sometimes extremely managable, other times out of control!

 

[l Love Beer]

Well i did ship it in, and he showed me TT for top set...

 

[joos]

just a cooler. ship it always

 

[c9h13no3]

Well i did ship it in, and he showed me TT for top set...

So much for 90% flushes?

 

[Jillychemung]

What range are they flat,flat,raising with, my range - all flush draws, OESD and sets.[/quote]

Hmmmm........

 

[grift]

1 vote for flat call 5$, push paired board. I think if he's bluffing you with a rag or whatnot he's not going to push the river and you'll go to showdown. If the board pairs i don't think he's going to fold his flush or straight for another 12-14$, giving you decent implied odds. And if he pushes on the river I think it's an easy fold.

My .02$