Mid-pair, getting villain off his hand

pokerstars Game #12494837178: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2007/10/07 - 17:26:18 (ET)
Table 'Chiny II' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 2: mgodv ($27.75 in chips)
Seat 3: MaxellOnl ($46.75 in chips)
Seat 4: ichinose ($61 in chips)
Seat 5: crow23hh ($50 in chips)
Seat 6: vanquish331 ($62.05 in chips)
MaxellOnl: posts small blind $0.25
ichinose: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to vanquish331 [8s 8h]
crow23hh: raises $1.50 to $2
vanquish331: calls $2
mgodv: folds
MaxellOnl: folds
ichinose: folds
*** FLOP *** [3c 3s 9h]
crow23hh: bets $2
vanquish331: raises $3.50 to $5.50
crow23hh: calls $3.50
*** TURN *** [3c 3s 9h] [Kc]
crow23hh: checks
vanquish331: bets $5
crow23hh: calls $5
*** RIVER *** [3c 3s 9h Kc] [4d]
crow23hh: checks
vanquish331: bets $15



Does this seem effective?
What does villain have?

I sense weakness here, does anyone agree?


Villain's numbers:
25/12.5 over 8 hands

His flop call has to mean some kind of a pair unless he's really out there and is making this call with overcards.

I know you don't have many reads (8 hands = nothing), but if he's that loose I'm just checking behind since he could be ch-calling with a king, or maybe even planning a check-raise. He would also hold onto QQ and under, and with us only beating 2s and 5-7s, and falling behind to 3s, 4s and 99+, I'd say checking is the best option.

He probably actually folds 22 and 55-77 some of the time, and most probably calls more of the hands that have you beat.

In short, I like a check because a) we're not getting called by many worse hands, and b) we're not pushing out many hands that have us beat.

if i had to guess one range, i'd say TT-QQ.. maybe AK-KJ floating flop because he doesn't believe you. obv he's not folding AK and hard to say how often he folds TT-QQ, but without a real read i'd guess it's not often enough. there's other smaller pairs he could possibly have, but i don't think he's calling the turn with them hardly ever, so i can understand why you're turning your hand into a bluff (although i still wouldn't do it here because people at 50NL just don't fold enough in my experience)

expert tactic: on river, type "i know you got queens", then minbet 50 cents

vanquish said:

25/12.5 over 8 hands

Click to expand...

It took me so long to anaylize this hand that my post got timed out... Anyway, First things first, I dont' know what the numbers 25/12.5 over 8 hands means and I don't know how your numbers compare.

If you have been aggressive in the 8 hands that you have played, he may be letting you bet the pot for him.

He made a 3bb initial raise, you called,
He made a 1/2 pot bet, you raised, he called.

I would check, putting him on K-9.

Van, it looks like you're beat but I do agree on the weakness. That being the situation I don't dislike your bet because it's the only way you can take this down. We have no reads on him but his PF raise, the fact he called your check/raise on the flop and then check/called the turn, it makes me think it could be something like a scared TT or JJ. Your $15 bet looks good to me, if he calls it so be it but I think it's worth a try and I like the reasoning behind it. Most players will give up in this spot with tens or jacks.

joeeagles said:

Van, it looks like you're beat but I do agree on the weakness. That being the situation I don't dislike your bet because it's the only way you can take this down. We have no reads on him but his PF raise, the fact he called your check/raise on the flop and then check/called the turn, it makes me think it could be something like a scared TT or JJ. Your $15 bet looks good to me, if he calls it so be it but I think it's worth a try and I like the reasoning behind it. Most players will give up in this spot with tens or jacks.

Click to expand...

The $15 was a follow through on the weakness I sensed, I figured he was either TT, JJ, or QQ, and would not be willing to call $15.

Results:

Villain folds, vanquish takes down pot.

Firstly over 8 hands villain's stats can be mostly ignored. Your play here especially shorthanded was fine to marginal, and its very likely that your getting a worse hand to fold out.

Problem is when your against a calling station, you simply dont have enough information yet to know that your opponent is capable of folding. IF he is a calling station, then this play has to be used in combination with the fact that you play against the other players in the hand at least some of the time, both in the past and the future. OR if you intend this to be a relatively long session. This is more for META considerations than simply getting the villian off his hand, and the result likely being that you get called down much lighter with weak top pair/mid pair hands in the future or later in the session. You need reasonable backup behind the fact that sometimes your going run into very strong hands here, and some players that will float AK/KQ and stack off once that turn hits.

A combination of facts imo makes this play more profitabe than simply taking this single hand out of total context, if thats what your doing then fine. Taken as a single hand, and against an unknown player on the low stakes then its marginal, but then again shorthanded play isnt my cup of tea.