Originally Posted by Bombjack
Evaluating the likelihood of AK versus AA on the turn depends really on a read of whether the raiser will put in a continuation bet when she misses with AK. A lot of players won't bet into multiple opponents when they miss. It would have helped if I'd raised on the flop.
I bet this flop a lot of the time with AK OOP into 2 preflop callers. It's a ragged flop, and your opponents are more likely to be sitting with two high unpaired cards than anything else.
AK can fold easily to any flop raise, and if called can re-evaluate on the turn (if called in two spots it's a routine check-fold, if called in one it's largely read and turn card dependent).
If you really believe by the time villain has led at the flop that there is a significant chance he has AA (or 'a high pair'), why are you not raising the flop? He's not going to be going anywhere with an overpair on a flop like that if you do raise - he will put you on a flush draw, something that hit the flop marginally like A8/A4, a set, or perhaps a total bluff back at his c-bet. Yeah a set is in the range he will give you, but it's a very small portion of that range.
As played I still maintain that it's a pretty easy call. You play these low pocket pairs to hit sets and hopefully get involved in a big pot - if you're seriously considering folding here you may as well just fold it preflop. You have a big hand and should be delighted at the chance to play a huge pot with it on a board as not-scary as this one (I completely agree with myx when he says the A is a card you want to see here
as it will make you profit against villain's range in the long run) - there are only two feasible hands you're trailing and many more you're way ahead of - if villain has AA or 88 then all the best to him but no way can I fold here without a 'biggest nit in the universe' read on him, and 23/8 is not indicative of the biggest nit in the universe.
I'm guessing you folded by the tone of your posts. If so, WEAK-TIGHT (and that really means something coming from me!)