Originally Posted by zachvac
It doesn't matter if it's a draw or a made hand. Against an overpair, which was a very likely holding in this situation, he is practically even money to win and the dead money in the pot makes the call not bad. With this type of hand he would like to be the one pushing because he gets fold equity on top of the value of the hand, but this is not a horrible play.
I'm not defending the talking, but I will defend the play. I like that play better than the shoving the 2nd nuts, I'll tell you that much.
Zach thanks alot for making me dig out the calculator!
Let's just assume there's a made boat or quads 15% of the time. You are drawing completely dead. If you count 6 aces and kings + 9 hearts as outs that's 15 with 2 to go. however you can't do that necessarily.. If there is an overpair then either the overpair has a heart, reducing your outs by one, or if that particular heart hit you lose to a boat. So take one out away. To make the calculation a little simpler..I'm gonna dock one additional out for the times we are up against AA/KK/(or a random 3) and don't have the pair outs.
OK so... pot is $167 and villain 2 has to call $115. anyways we are gonna say 13 outs in best case, 0 in worst. So 13 outs with 2 to go is (13/47)+(13/46) = ~56%
So..approx EV, adjusted for the 85% chance of being against an overpair = .15(-115) + .476(167) + .374(-115) = +19.23
I could have factored in chance of a bluff and/or weaker flush draw doing this (something like Qh/Th) and it makes it more profitable. As above it's a profitable call long term if you don't think he's likely to actually have the made boat already
. Unfortunately it's one of those "you win a ton or lose a ton" hands. If you have a read that adjusts the likelihood of hero shoving only with a made boat higher it becomes unprofitable. however an EV of ~$20 is a pretty solid call.
OK so I don't hate the call as much now. At certain tables/certain players odds
of him having either 99 or a random 3 are probably much higher. I don't call this online hardly ever I can tell you that. At least at $25/$50 NL since people rarely bluff with draws and alot of them do have a tendency to go nuts with a made hand.
One thing isn't debatable... villain had absolutely no grounds to call the OP a donkey!
/edit..geez I fail at math. corrected pot size numbers.