LHE - top set, raised on flush board

[Bombjack]

Haven't got the text history because this was on Carbon Poker (same as Poker.com), but here's what happened.

$3/6 LHE 5-handed

Hero UTG with , raise
CO calls
Button calls
SB folds
BB folds

Flop

Hero bets
CO folds
Button calls

Turn

Hero bets
Button raises
Hero...

Is 3-betting profitable here?

 

[vanquish]

Yes, you're still getting value out of any two pair and any set that villain has in this spot.

 

[skoldpadda]

Gawd I'm awful at LHE. I think raising is probably correct but am not sure.

 

[jeffred1111]

Depends on opponent and is largely read dependant:

Three betting will be profitable if:
a) opponent will call with 2 pairs, str8 draw, lower set
b) opponent will not cap with such hands (and 3/6 villains can be tricky)

This is either call, b/f UI or threetown and puke when villain caps (and obviously c/f river UI). I like the first line better since we are still getting payed off 1bet by two pairs/sets if we fill and no hearts come while we draw to boat for cheaper. Also, we get less folds by these hands by calling and betting the river than by threetowning IMHO (altough, as always, read dependant).

And if you find someone who calls your threetown and calls your bet with two pairs/lower set on the end, nh.

 

[F Paulsson]

Some players always - ALWAYS - pump flush draws on the flop. They will raise, even cap. If this guy is such a player then you "know" he can't have a flush, yet.

If you're eager to get more money in, I think the river is probably a better spot for you. Call now and checkraise a non-heart river. The effect is largely the same except that you will not put in the bets before you know what the river is. If you're worried about him checking behind on the river, it's worth pointing out that the only hands he'll raise the turn with that he'll check behind are missed draws from which you won't get value anyway. Even better, actually, since if he's trying to move you off the pot with a draw on the turn, he's forced to put in one more bet on the river to follow-up the bluff.

If he's on a flushdraw, you'll get three bets in on the turn by 3-betting, none on the river when he misses and you lead.

But you will get two bets in on the turn by calling, and one on the river when he misses (and must follow up).

Same number of bets, but in one scenario you're getting the third bet in with much higher equity.

 

[jeffred1111]

Yeah, c/r river instead of betting. My river play is horrible anyway.

 

[Bombjack]

My concern was that he actually had a flush already and I'd get 4-bet if I raised. If that's the case, I check-call any river that doesn't pair the board, obviously not folding top set getting 14:1, and I've put in 5 bets on the turn and river.

If I just call, then check-raise a non-heart river, and he 3-bets, I call, and I've still lost 5 bets. So if he has a flush I lost 5 bets whatever.

However if he has 2 pair / set, and I just call, river is not a heart, I win 4 bets from a river check-raise. If I raise then lead the river, I still win 4 bets, or maybe 5 if he thinks his set is good.

If the river is a heart, it'll go check-check, and I only win 2 bets. However if I raise the turn and the river is a heart, I win 3 bets.

So if he has 2 pair / set rather than a flush or flush draw, it looks like raising the turn is better.

 

[jeffred1111]

So if he has 2 pair / set rather than a flush or flush draw, it looks like raising the turn is better.

Yes, but does he have a flushdraw or flush more often than he has set two pairs ? Given preflop play and BTN not being terrible (99,88 3-bet pre probably), sets are possible but more unlikely than SC or suited painted cold calling. This is entirely dependant on preflop reads/stats. You also need to know if villain is more likely raise a draw on the flop than just call, but the call indicates flush draw to me more than 2-pairs/sets. Really, any thinking opponent will raise even AX on this flop, if not for protection, for value and the only hands that turn two pairs are A8 or 89.

So, I err on the side of caution since your equity actually goes up on a non-heart river (+ we might fill up) and call this. I feel villain's range is heavily weighted toward flush.

 

[dj11]

If he calls or raises a bet from you, you have to figure he has a flush that he thinks will be beating your flush.

the 3 betting will only be profitable if he doesn't have hearts.

However, if he is sitting 4 flushed post turn, you don't want to give him a cheap out. The river could about just as well pair the board.

Villain makes a case that he is flushed, or flushing with his turn raise.

Sure wish we had more info to go on here.

 

[jeffred1111]

However, if he is sitting 4 flushed post turn, you don't want to give him a cheap out. The river could about just as well pair the board.

Villain makes a case that he is flushed, or flushing with his turn raise.

Sure wish we had more info to go on here.

Yes, but since villain's hand range is pretty narrow and includes flushes somewhat often, IMHO, our equity edge might not be good enough for a 3-bet (we need 50%+ and I'm really not sure we are getting it after flop call + the times we get 4-bet). We have 0 FE 98% of the time and are compromising our turn c/r the vast majority of time a heart doesn't fall (villain will never bluff his miss draw on river after 3-bet).

And as you have pointed out, we are also on a draw sometimes and charging us more to draw is counterproductive.

This hand would be much simpler to play in position since we would have the luxury of not opening ourselves to a turn cap.

 

[Bombjack]

I just called.

River was , giving me Aces full.
I check-raised, he called, with for Eights full of Nines.

Being results-oriented, I suppose I could have got an extra couple of bets in if I'd 3-bet the turn then led the river, and he would probably have raised, allowing me to 3-bet that. Or maybe check-raising the river would still be best. Not sure.

 

[jeffred1111]

Yes, you are being results oriented, you made the best play against his range and should be proud of it. Winning 2 more bets in this situation would have been nice, but really, if we 3-bet, it gets capped and we call on the end UI, we lose more than we could've gained the times we were in front, and we're not in front 45-50% of the time here.