KQ @ $25NL- Part 4

pokerstars Game #10169423874: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2007/05/29 - 16:32:00 (ET)
Table 'Laura IV' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: kpwl ($28.45 in chips)
Seat 3: giorgino ($13.40 in chips)
Seat 4: poronga 1 ($24.65 in chips)
Seat 5: mano762 ($44.70 in chips)
Seat 6: ah welll ($24.65 in chips)
Seat 7: mischman ($23.65 in chips)
Seat 9: celtico ($37.85 in chips)
celtico: posts small blind $0.10
kpwl: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to mischman [Qd Kd]
giorgino: raises $0.25 to $0.50
poronga 1: folds
mano762: folds
ah welll: folds
mischman: raises $1.25 to $1.75
celtico: folds
kpwl: folds
giorgino: calls $1.25
*** FLOP *** [4c Ts Ks]
giorgino: checks
mischman: bets $2.50
giorgino: calls $2.50
*** TURN *** [4c Ts Ks] [5c]
giorgino: checks
mischman: bets $3.50
giorgino: calls $3.50
*** RIVER *** [4c Ts Ks 5c] [5h]
giorgino: checks
mischman:

Tricky. Are we losing value by checking ? Alarm bells should be ringing by now, if we toss out a small bet here and get raised we almost certainly have to fold. AK has shown us he isnt folding, the flush isnt folding, 44, TT any donk hand like A5 has us whipped.

Yer, i think i check behind.

You're not getting a call from anything that doesn't have you beat here IMO. Maybe QQ/JJ, but unlikely. I check behind.

I would put him all in here. Nothing changed from the turn to the river, I still believe we re ahead here. Not many chips in front of him. Let s take them all. The only hand i m worried is KT. I do not think that AK is possible. I exclude full house with pocket pair too. After some more thinking I exclude KT also.
AT JJ QQ his possible hands as this game proceeded.

ChuckyTs, if he s below average it might be hard to get rid of a pocket pair like JJ/QQ. I think we should bet.

All in sounds good to me. My guess is he has a busted flush draw. If he had anything, why would he check on the river? Checking would be the safe route but this is a ring table and you're here to make money. A bet of $4 may give your opponent the chnace to check raise you out of the pot. Why give him the chance?

t1riel said:

. A bet of $4 may give your opponent the chnace to check raise you out of the pot. Why give him the chance?

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He only has about $6 left how can you fold if you bet $4 and he rereaises all-in for $2 more?

There's about $15 in the pot, villan has about $6 left there is no way you would fold even if he pushed all in before you. He could easily have A-10 here. So the question is what are the odds that he has a hand that you beat that will call off all his chips with compared to a big hand that has you beat. Remember if he has a hand that beats you here you cannot get him to fold by betting. He'll be getting almost 4-1.

Bet.

Check, just so you can see what he had/how he played the hand for future reference....

Check.

Mainly for two reasons:

1) Most likely, unless he is an absolute calling station or fish, he will not be calling an all-in or $4 bet here unless he has you beat. I don't really see anything that he can call you with, possibly KJ, 9s, JJs, or QQs, but I still think those hands would most likely fold to you here as well. Majority of the time, if you bet out here and get called, you will be beat. Also, remember he minraised UTG. Very tricky, unless you have reads on him you don't know exactly what that means. Could be anything from JJ-AA, to like a K-10 suited. Check is the best option.

ALSO

2) You want to see his hand, to see if he is a short-buyin donk playing way out of his BR, or if he is a solid short-buyin specialist that is probably playing many tables. If you see his cards, and it's pretty obv that he had like JJs-QQs (big PP) type of hand that was obv beat on that board, then it's likely that he's a short-buyin donk playing way out of his BR. If he had a major draw or a big hand that had you beat, then he possibly knows what he's doing and you will have some information to go off of in the future when you go up against him.

what she said ^^^^ .

simple check!!!!

what is calling you on the river that you beat? KJ and that is it!

and dont even know if KJ is going to pay you off but most likely yes, just check.

Against a competent opponent, check. Against a random $25NL player, bet. It's very unlikely he has a monster (including AA) and we have to somewhat discount the probability of AK because he never played back at us after the flop. Still, he may be passive and fear that we have AA.

I think many of you who say to check have vastly different experiences compared to me as to what hands people will call down with. So many players at 25NL will call down with QQ, JJ, 99 and 88 in this spot, and also KJ and AT. So all those hands... And we're worried about what - AK? What other hand could he reasonably have that beats us?

I strongly believe we're ahead the majority of the time that he calls us on the river. Without prior knowledge that he knows what he's doing, I'm betting every time.

I realize that this is part 4 and that I'm late in the game, but have any reads been mentioned? Also, what's your image, Misch? If you're lagging it up, then this is the clearest bet ever since you'll sometimes get called by AQ and AJ as well.

You don't know where you stand..

Not knowing the betting patterns of giorgino, flags do go up when he raises UTG....you might assume that he has pretty high pockets or high pairs to raise so early when there are others still left to act.

Also, the fact that he calls a reraise of another 3xBB to him, after his 2xBB bet, is another warning that he is holding a strong hand. Unless he was a complete moron to the game of poker, he is out of position this whole round so unless he has something, the call of the reraise would be wrong.

When it
*** FLOPS *** [4c Ts Ks]

And mischman bets out and giorgino flat calls a huge 10xBB bet from mischman. He could have called the 3xbb with pocket 10s and hit his set. So mischman's K,Q is no longer good with the pair of Kings, he should exercise extreme caution in further betting after noticing the flat calls.

..after an inital preflop raise and flat calls to the river, you wonder if he is trying to suck out more money from you.

Why bet $4 on the river after he checks, checking at this point saves you money if he indeed has a better hand than you.. a bet of $4 on the river on a mere high pocket after being called on all your big bets to that point is not a strategic move to make...

Vegas Cat said:

... Unless he was a complete moron to the game of poker...

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I can't think of any two cards that he

a) played well, and
b) beats us.

Can you?

F Paulsson said:

Against a competent opponent, check. Against a random $25NL player, bet. It's very unlikely he has a monster (including AA) and we have to somewhat discount the probability of AK because he never played back at us after the flop. Still, he may be passive and fear that we have AA.

I think many of you who say to check have vastly different experiences compared to me as to what hands people will call down with. So many players at 25NL will call down with QQ, JJ, 99 and 88 in this spot, and also KJ and AT. So all those hands... And we're worried about what - AK? What other hand could he reasonably have that beats us?

I strongly believe we're ahead the majority of the time that he calls us on the river. Without prior knowledge that he knows what he's doing, I'm betting every time.

I realize that this is part 4 and that I'm late in the game, but have any reads been mentioned? Also, what's your image, Misch? If you're lagging it up, then this is the clearest bet ever since you'll sometimes get called by AQ and AJ as well.

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I agree with this^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

I don't think you check this, I mean if he has AK this is probably one of the most passive players you'll get to play against, with his check/calling all the way. How could he possibly check on that flop with AK? For fear you have AA? So because of that fear he goes for the check/call line, without ever making a move? Or he's check/calling to trap you? With draws on the board? Come on, it makes no sense, especially because he checked the river, and so doesn't KT, which is even worse since that flop has some draws and hitting top 2 pair should make you worry much less about hands like AA.

I think another consideration that needs to be added here and hasn't been made yet is that putting him all-in will make him call a lot more than people think, because he could suspect that you missed a draw and are trying to steal the pot. By making a bet that puts him all-in, he'll think you either have a monster or nothing, and any hand like AT, KJ, QQ, JJ, 99, 88 and maybe even AQ or AJ as mentioned by FP could make this call.

When you consider all this I believe checking here is very wrong, you should be ahead here almost every time unless opponent is incredibly passive. If you have seen him make plays like that then you should check, otherwise I'd put him all-in and you'll get a call from 2nd best hand more times than people here seem to think.

Edit: I just noticed that winneronline also made the same arguments. Nice analysis and I agree, QQ, JJ will at times make this call.

put him all in....pot size is $15...he only has approximately $6....mith medium pair or king/weak kicker he is calling....if he was chasing the flush he will fold....bottom line is put more pressure on him

dacallstation12 said:

put him all in....pot size is $15...he only has approximately $6....mith medium pair or king/weak kicker he is calling....if he was chasing the flush he will fold....bottom line is put more pressure on him

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what kind of pressure do we expect to put on him on the river? if he is chasing flush then obviously he missed and will fold, if he has better hand he will call.

I dont see point in betting this river, check to see what he was playing with. I dont think we are getting paid off with a hand that is worse then KQ.

stormswa said:

what kind of pressure do we expect to put on him on the river? if he is chasing flush then obviously he missed and will fold, if he has better hand he will call.

I dont see point in betting this river, check to see what he was playing with. I dont think we are getting paid off with a hand that is worse then KQ.

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Seriously, I'm either really good with table selection, or you vastly underestimate what hands average people go to showdown with at $25NL. I've been called by hands like T-9 in situations such as the above. He will fold hands that we beat if he plays well, but that again begs the question which hands he could possibly have played well that can beat us. I can't think of any.

That it's a somewhat standard check against good players does not mean that it isn't a big mistake to check vs bad players. Do you expect a bad player to fold JJ or QQ at any point in this hand? Or KJ? Or K9? Or AT? Or, hell, even A4?

F Paulsson said:

Seriously, I'm either really good with table selection, or you vastly underestimate what hands average people go to showdown with at $25NL. I've been called by hands like T-9 in situations such as the above. He will fold hands that we beat if he plays well, but that again begs the question which hands he could possibly have played well that can beat us. I can't think of any.

That it's a somewhat standard check against good players does not mean that it isn't a big mistake to check vs bad players. Do you expect a bad player to fold JJ or QQ at any point in this hand? Or KJ? Or K9? Or AT? Or, hell, even A4?

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that might be my problem here, I might be overestimating the guys and might be losing value because of it.

F Paulsson said:

Seriously, I'm either really good with table selection, or you vastly underestimate what hands average people go to showdown with at $25NL. I've been called by hands like T-9 in situations such as the above. He will fold hands that we beat if he plays well, but that again begs the question which hands he could possibly have played well that can beat us. I can't think of any.

That it's a somewhat standard check against good players does not mean that it isn't a big mistake to check vs bad players. Do you expect a bad player to fold JJ or QQ at any point in this hand? Or KJ? Or K9? Or AT? Or, hell, even A4?

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This is absolutly correct. We may say a check is the right play against good players but that is the big if here. There are so many bad players at this level an even higher that will pay this off with weak hands. A lot of it is players deluding themselves into thinking they can read you and don't think you have anything and are on a pure bluff.

i voted push him all in! although i wouldn't :/