re: Poker & KQ @ $25NL- Part 4
Originally Posted by F Paulsson
Against a competent opponent, check. Against a random $25NL player, bet. It's very unlikely he has a monster (including AA) and we have to somewhat discount the probability of AK because he never played back at us after the flop. Still, he may be passive and fear that we have AA.
I think many of you who say to check have vastly different experiences compared to me as to what hands people will call down with. So many players at 25NL will call down with QQ, JJ, 99 and 88 in this spot, and also KJ and AT. So all those hands... And we're worried about what - AK? What other hand could he reasonably have that beats us?
I strongly believe we're ahead the majority of the time that he calls us on the river. Without prior knowledge that he knows what he's doing, I'm betting every time.
I realize that this is part 4 and that I'm late in the game, but have any reads been mentioned? Also, what's your image, Misch? If you're lagging it up, then this is the clearest bet ever since you'll sometimes get called by AQ and AJ as well.
I agree with this^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
I don't think you check this, I mean if he has AK this is probably one of the most passive players you'll get to play against, with his check/calling all the way. How could he possibly check on that flop with AK? For fear you have AA? So because of that fear he goes for the check/call line, without ever making a move? Or he's check/calling to trap you? With draws on the board? Come on, it makes no sense, especially because he checked the river, and so doesn't KT, which is even worse since that flop has some draws and hitting top 2 pair should make you worry much less about hands like AA.
I think another consideration that needs to be added here and hasn't been made yet is that putting him all-in will make him call a lot more than people think, because he could suspect that you missed a draw and are trying to steal the pot. By making a bet that puts him all-in, he'll think you either have a monster or nothing, and any hand like AT, KJ, QQ, JJ, 99, 88 and maybe even AQ or AJ as mentioned by FP could make this call.
When you consider all this I believe checking here is very wrong, you should be ahead here almost every time unless opponent is incredibly passive. If you have seen him make plays like that then you should check, otherwise I'd put him all-in and you'll get a call from 2nd best hand more times than people here seem to think.
Edit: I just noticed that winneronline also made the same arguments. Nice analysis and I agree, QQ, JJ will at times make this call.