KK in 3-bet pot vs. Flop Shove, A on Flop [200nl FR]

MP2: $200
CO: $63.80
Hero (BTN): $197
SB: $117.80
BB: $188
UTG: $234.45
UTG+1: $422.80
MP1: $518.90

Pre-Flop: K K dealt to Hero (BTN)
4 folds, CO calls $2, Hero raises to $8, SB raises to $24, 2 folds, Hero raises to $52, SB calls $28

Flop: ($108) A 3 9 (2 Players)
SB bets $65.80 and is All-In, Hero ???

Villain's a 53/31, just bad overall. Would AK really open shove this flop?

this is kinda weird. an A really shouldn't open shove this flop, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't. he's 53/31 so i doubt there'd be a whole lot of logical thought process other than "ooh, hit my A and the pot is already big enough for me, all-in!"

problem is he could also do this with like QQ or JJ because these types of players tend to think its their god given right to win the pot with a big pair, and they just go crazy and push A high flops for no reason

buut there's a good chance he'd push all-in preflop with one of those larger pairs, whereas he can be bad enough to call and see a flop with some big aces

we have the Kd and the Ad is out there which significantly reduces the chances he's on a flush draw. i lean towards a sigh-fold. i don't hate a call though. you only have to win like 28% of the time for it to be +EV. i think its pretty marginal? and it reminds me a lot of a hand someone else posted several months ago where i said about the same thing

Just shove pf, he's only a half stack.

I would shove quite a bit more when there is a flush draw on the board.

The crazy thing I notice is how many times it seems an Ace hits the board when I hold KK.

tbdbitl said:

I would shove quite a bit more when there is a flush draw on the board.

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then you're not reading the situation well. based on preflop there are exactly 0 flush draws in zach's range, so it's all but irrelevant

edit: however, the villain in the hand could be using that same flawed logic and pushing an A for that reason

ChuckTs said:

Just shove pf, he's only a half stack.

Click to expand...

Well this is why I bet smallish, hoping he'd shove over the top with AK and call much wider than if I shove.

Sounds to me like you lost $52..and if you would have shoved preflop you would have lost 117..thats a savings of $65...reminds me of Jennifer in that FULLTILT aid...you know the one when she throws her kings into the muck.

just some food for thought for all the people who inevitably won't realize how close this actually is:

we need only ~28% equity to call profitably. even when we're crushed by an A or even a set, worst case scenario we still have an average of like 12% equity against those hands (partly because of the backdoor flush draw). the rare time he's being dumb and spewy with QQ/JJ/TT, we have about 92% equity. so we don't have to be ahead very often at all to call

i'd still fold but it's really close

interesting, because i'd lean toward calling this given the odds you are getting. surely villain has to be shoving this flop with alot of his/her range, and if villain is sitting with a hand like JJ here they have to know they have ZERO equity in the pot and might be able to fold out QQ/KK by shoving. villain is super aggro pre, so i think the preflop range has to be pretty wide if villain is a bad player, and i really can't see villain doing this with an A when s/he hits a dream flop.

given aggro/fishy stats, pot/villain stack sizing (open shove is not unexpected, regardless of flop texture), and weird line i'd probably call this (and probably lose the pot)

remember, this is blind vs steal...so ranges are probably pretty open. hero gives like 3:1 odds on the 4 bet. Why does this have to be an ace? What makes anybody think that SB isn't doing this pf with something like JTs or 77/88 etc? Nothing out of the ordinary to reraise a steal with a hand like that (especially for an aggro pf player), and then to feel obliged to call the 4 bet when offered such odds (and does help if villain is bad obviously). Add to that the fact that this would be such a bizzare way to play an ace post flop.

Thats a pretty bad flop for you but, it is good. Not sure what the outcome of this hand is but, Im sure he has a small pair trying to represent the A or the flush draw. I hope you took it down

Fold...

fwiw, even if I call then long-term this entire hand is still a winning proposition for me, even if he stacks an A and folds anything else. He flops an A ~18% of the time. So if I win $52 82% of the time and lose $117.80 the other 18%, overall ev is $21.44. On top of that AK is probably stacking a K, so one out I stack him and that tilts it even worse in my favor. This means that overall the line of raise to $52 preflop and stack flop regardless of what comes is profitable overall. The question is whether folding here is more profitable.

Anyway, mainly because I knew it couldn't be unprofitable overall but folding may be if I let myself get bluffed with any A (plus I'd lose a stack if they hit their set without an A on the board) it may be unprofitable, while I knew for sure overall calling was profitable. Villain flips over an extremely strangely played AQo (3bet preflop and call a 4bet, then open shove when you hit your A lol) and I don't improve.