KK facing massive overbet on turn scare card

Villain was a weird, fishy sort who minraises preflop and minraises on the flop with strong hands. Hadn't seen him really do anything out of line though. (He min three-bet with AA preflop and kept making small value bets to the river one hand).

Full Tilt, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

UTG: $50.75 (101.5 bb)
MP: $36.90 (73.8 bb)
CO: $54.85 (109.7 bb)
Hero (BTN): $66.10 (132.2 bb)
SB: $55.45 (110.9 bb)
BB: $47.25 (94.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with K:spade: K:heart:
3 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, SB folds, BB calls $1

Flop: ($3.25) 7:spade: 7:club: J:spade: (2 players)
BB bets $2, Hero raises to $6, BB calls $4

Turn: ($15.25) 4:spade: (2 players)
BB bets $39.75 and is all-in, Hero???

meh. calling overbet shoves from fishies is usually so -EV. The only thing you're beating is an overplayed J, a weird middle pair and air. On the other hand, with boat and 2nd nut flush draws you still have about 20 to 25% equity against made flushes that don't include the As and against 7 trips.

Because we have that equity against the good part of his range, we don't need him to be overplaying the J or pushing with air so often to make a call break-even, so i guess it's ok. If I was sure villain stays at the table when he wins, i'd be happy to pay for the information. If I was sure he hits and runs i would prefer a fold. Not knowing that, it's just meh.

Personally Id say he was holding a mid pair. AA or A7

He pushed on the turn because

1) he was happier that his mid pair would stay good on the river
2) he feared the flush draw and wanted to win the hand there.

He could have been on a FH holding 44 preflop but if he did then he wouldnt fear the flush and IMO he would slow down the agression and allow you to build the pot.

Trips? Yes he could have held A7 and that would fit the pattern preflop and flop (he was building the pot). Would he play A7 out of position???

This just looks like he has a hand that a flush could beat.

I am pretty sure you are ahead here, but you only have 2 pair.. its not a big hand and so its not worth risking a big pot for.

The only hand I feel he has that could beat you is A7 or AA, I dont think he has a FH and I dont think the 4 helped him.

AA is a very likely candidate here. He may have tryed to slow play it, intending to call down to the river but the flush draw not only scared him, it caused him to press the hand way too hard because he didnt want to get sucked out with aces.

Infact the more I think about it AA is really very likely here.

You have invested $7.50 (15bb) so far and its going to cost you almost $40 (80bb) to find out.

IMO its not worth pushing 2 pair that hard even though you have tonnes of outs and (statistically are infront of most of the hands he could hold (mid pairs) its not worth trying to find out with only 2 pair!

What did you do?

Meh this spot sucks.

I think you are way behind here most of the time with a possible flush out plus the boat outs. This villain sounds like the type who isn't shoving without the nuts or the near nuts (in his opinion anyways)

I don't think random Jacks do this unless it's AsJx.

You are looking at a made flush or a random 7 most of the time I think. AA maybe too from this guy.

I think I give this one up. 2 kings are your only clean outs and I don't see you being ahead often enough otherwise.

smells like A7 and he fears the flush draw or he may have Ace of spades. I guess you were meant to make the tough laydown. I wouldn't have though because I'm a noob.

Belgo expressed much of my thinking...I think worst case he has a made small flush, against which I have 12 outs for a better flush (assuming he doesn't have As) or boat. Most likely holding to me was something like QsJx.

I called.

Umm, i call here like 100% of the time. No way a fish shoves a made flush here as he tries to ch/r or do some other trickier play. I'd say this is a J or other PP a majority of the time, sometimes a 7, and sometimes total air. I call and expect to be ahead a good portion of the time.

Would you change your mind if you're not holding Ks?

Would you change your mind if you're not holding Ks?

Click to expand...

Id be much less happy about it, but I think i could still find a call.

Has he varied at all from his minimum bet, raise and small bets? If not call, but if he has shown any ability to change his betting pattern at all, a fold is in order.