JJ vs Flop minraise [50NL 6max]

Damn I hate minraises.

I have been 16/14/1
Villain is 20/19/7 over 160 hands

pokerstars GAME #17368262851: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.25/$0.50) - 2008/05/11 - 23:18:55 (ET)
Table 'Isara V' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: antimetagame ($50.75 in chips)
Seat 2: chupitacabra ($127.10 in chips)
Seat 3: sm0kelm ($49.50 in chips)
Seat 4: bw07507 ($53.85 in chips)
Seat 5: Aha31 ($106.60 in chips)
sm0kelm: posts small blind $0.25
bw07507: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bw07507 [Jd Jc]
Mirandolli joins the table at seat #6
Aha31: calls $0.50
antimetagame: raises $2 to $2.50
chupitacabra: folds
sm0kelm: folds
bw07507: raises $5 to $7.50
Aha31: folds
antimetagame: calls $5
*** FLOP *** [6c Td Th]
bw07507: bets $10
antimetagame: raises $10 to $20
bw07507 ?

That sucks. Maybe I call and see turn. Maybe not because of my terrible luck with JJ in the past. tough one

click it back then call flop shove, if he calls, shove non-scary turn?

I dont think he ever flat calls if I click it back, he either shoves or folds. I guess I have to get this one in, considering his AF is 7 over a decent sample size. I actually like CiB here since it gives him the opportunity to bluff shove whereas if I just shove he will fold if he doesnt have anything.

I'm playing microstakes so feel free to ignore me, I don't like reraising jacks to begin with. I'll go read up on what the numbers mean now.

Click to expand...

The numbers are VPIP/PFR/AF

VPIP = how often he voluntarily puts money into the pot
PFR = How often he raises preflop
AF = Aggression factor postflop (7 is very high)

Against someone who raises 19% of his hands, reraising JJ is extremely standard. Flat calling and set mining here is extremely weak imo.

actully the 2nd number is length of penis in inches

Do you really think villian is going to risk 50% of his stack without a legit hand against a paired board?
My guess is that villian is holding a higher PP than you, but based on his AF, he could possibly be holding AT.
This is one of the places where relying on Poker Tracker stats could get you in trouble.

shinedown.45 said:

Do you really think villian is going to risk 50% of his stack without a legit hand against a paired board?
My guess is that villian is holding a higher PP than you, but based on his AF, he could possibly be holding AT.
This is one of the places where relying on Poker Tracker stats could get you in trouble.

Click to expand...

how does an AF of 7 indicate that villain has AT?
your post doesn't really make sense altogether

What does AF have to do with what cards he is holding?
And how can you put him on exactly AT?

well fwiw here are the top 19% of hands:

66+,A5s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+

As you can see an extremely wide range for the raise. But after you raise and he calls it gets smaller.

On AF: Remember what that means? High AF is a high bet or raise to call ratio. So that means if he plays fold or raise most of the time he'll have a high AF. Even if he folds 90% of the time, as long as 9% of the remaining he bets or raises and the other 1% he calls that's a 9 AF from someone folding 90% of hands. If we had a few hundred more hands I'd use winrate to see whether this player is smart or just reckless. Since you don't I'd look at the aggression % number, which (correctly imo) counts for folds not being aggressive. If this player is good, ie has a somewhat lower aggression % and a high winrate, I'd be more inclined to fold here. You've shown strength, and it looks like he's doing everything in his power to get his stack in the middle. He called your preflop re-raise so he could easily be on a higher pocket pair.

The one thing I think he may do this with that you beat is a lower pocket pair, maybe 77 or 88 or something. They fit quite well into this patter. Easy raise from someone who raises 19% of hands, most 50nl players call 3bets way too light. Then they see a cbet and think it's unlikely that you hit the T. They minraise to see if their hand's good, scared to death of throwing away what could easily be the best hand to AK/AQ (as your typical 7 AF player would be). So although lower pocket pairs are possible, I still think this is a fold. If we call this we pretty much commit our stack, and we don't want to be stacking with JJ on this flop.

vanquish said:

how does an AF of 7 indicate that villain has AT?
your post doesn't really make sense altogether

Click to expand...

I said it's possible because I have been in similar situations against the aggressive type where villian was in fact holding JT+.
I don't have PT so I don't understand the stats that much, but zach made it a little clearer.
I am an aggressive type at times and the way villian has played this is the same way I would play it, because I will in no way put 50% of my stack on the line against a paired board without holding the ten or a high PP.

1. Villain will always presume you have AK (or AQ if there's a K on the flop).
2. Not only, thinks villain, did you not hit AK but the board paired which makes it even less likely that his small/medium PP is beat.
3. He raises to protect 77 vs overcards.

I agree with clicking it back and calling a push.

shinedown.45 said:

I said it's possible because I have been in similar situations against the aggressive type where villian was in fact holding JT+.
I don't have Poker Tracker so I don't understand the stats that much, but zach made it a little clearer.
I am an aggressive type at times and the way villian has played this is the same way I would play it, because I will in no way put 50% of my stack on the line against a paired board without holding the ten or a high PP.

Click to expand...

why do you keep referring to the paired board as if it's something villain should be deathly afraid of? it makes it less likely that we have anything of note, therefore villain will bluff more often into this sort of board than say a KT9r board simply because we will have nothing and hence fold more often.

plus our flop lead looks weak (10 into a 16 pot and it looks like we're just bet sizing to give ourselves room to fold to a raise). i stack off here, though it's pretty marginal.

I think you should shove here for a few reasons. First, you've invested almost $20 already, $17.5 to be exact, folding will leave you with only $32.5 when you started with $50. Second, it's heads up, bets don't mean as much as they appear to mean than if it were a multiway pot, and bluffing is a lot more common HU than in multiway pots. Third, paired boards like this are where a lot of bluffing happens.