Originally Posted by Dorkus Malorkus
I don't like the flop call because the majority of the time it will leave us in the exact situation we ended up in on the turn - facing a big shove having not improved. Plus I doubt we're going to keep the initial flop bettor in - his flop bet was likely a small probing bet and he got his answer. I shove the flop pretty much every time here. As played, I call the turn.
I'm not too sure I'm understanding this (I don't understand Tosborn's edit line even less). I respect your opinion of not liking the flop call, but your explanation as to why you dislike it isn't making much sense to me. Villains hand is broken down pretty easily:
a) he has a flush
b) he doesn't have a flush but has the Ks (or the Qs)
c) he doesn't have a flush and has no spades at all
If villain has a flush he'll call our shove. If he doesn't have a flush and has no spades he'll fold to our shove. Scenario b is the only grey area. We might
get a call if he has a high spade. I really don't see why the shove is such a great move as opposed to instead looking at a turn and waiting to see what villain does since we have position on him. I mean really, the only advantage we could have by shoving is to induce a call by a hand with the Ks, and not every player, actually only a small percentage of players, will make that call. If we shove to his flop raise he'd have to put $40 in a $66 pot. Would you guys make that call? I doubt it since you're clearly outpriced and also wondering if I have a flush giving you 2 less outs.
I don't see why shoving the flop is the +EV play since it will fold the hands that we're crushing and get called by those that we're trailing. The only other argument that can be made is that, by shoving, if he folds, we protect from getting sucked out if another spade comes.
Now, you say that the majority of the time the flat call leaves us in this situation - facing a shove w/o having improved. Why is this necessarily bad? The turn didn't improve our hand, so now we either give him credit for a flush (and fold) or we don't (and call). In what way would shoving the flop change our situation? We still would miss the turn (lol, or maybe not since it's an online hand). By shoving, if called, we get to see the river. We can still call and see it now, that option is still available to us.
In conclusion, I'd think that against the right opponent (one that would call a shove on a draw), flat calling the flop raise would be -EV. But when our opponent shoves into us on a turn that is not a spade, then the advantage is ours and we actually benefit from not having shoved the flop as long as we make the correct read. That because if we think he's playing his draw aggressively (or bluffing
) we succeeded in getting all his chips in the pot whereas shoving the flop might have made him fold. If instead we think that this player would only do it if he actually has the flush we now have the option to escape if we want to since a call vs a made flush is -EV.
@Tosborn: you say that his flop bet looks like a steal attempt. I honestly don't understand how you can be so sure of that. But even so, lets say you're right. So why shove into it? Or raise it? If we do that we'll force him to fold as opposed instead of letting him attempt it again on the turn. As for DM, I try to understand why you don't like the flop call but it seems to me that you guys don't like it for the wrong reasons.