JJ bet or try to induce bluff?

Stacks:
* MP2 with $48.00
* CO with $61.90
* BTN with $39.10
* SB with $46.95
* BB with $53.00
* UTG with $107.70
* MP1 with $46.95




Blinds: $0.00/$0.00
Site: full tilt poker
* * Dealt to MP2:J♣ J♠
* * Sklansky group 1
Preflop:
* * 2 players fold.
* * Hero raises to $1.75
* * CO calls [$1.75]
* * BTN calls [$1.50]
* * 1 players folded.
* * Total folds this street: 3
* * Potsize: $5.75
Flop:
* * 9♥ 8♥ 4♥
* * BTN checks
* * Hero checks
* * CO bets [$5.75]
* * 2 players fold.
* * Hero calls [$5.75]
* * Total folds this street: 1
* * Potsize: $17.25
Turn:
* * 8♣
* * Hero checks
* * CO checks
* * Potsize: $17.25
River:
* * J♦

Poker Hand Converter By Cardschat.com Poker Forum

Blinds are .25/.50. This really looks like he has a missed flush draw doesn't it? Do I make a value bet of around $10 or check to try to induce a bluff.

Bentheman87 said:

Stacks:
* MP2 with $48.00
* CO with $61.90
* BTN with $39.10
* SB with $46.95
* BB with $53.00
* UTG with $107.70
* MP1 with $46.95

Blinds: $0.00/$0.00
Site: Full Tilt Poker
* * Dealt to MP2:J♣ J♠
* * Sklansky group 1
Preflop:
* * 2 players fold.
* * Hero raises to $1.75
* * CO calls [$1.75]
* * BTN calls [$1.50]
* * 1 players folded.
* * Total folds this street: 3
* * Potsize: $5.75
Flop:
* * 9♥ 8♥ 4♥
* * BTN checks
* * Hero checks
* * CO bets [$5.75]
* * 2 players fold.
* * Hero calls [$5.75]
* * Total folds this street: 1
* * Potsize: $17.25
Turn:
* * 8♣
* * Hero checks
* * CO checks
* * Potsize: $17.25
River:
* * J♦

Poker Hand Converter By Cardschat.com Poker Forum

Blinds are .25/.50. This really looks like he has a missed flush draw doesn't it? Do I make a value bet of around $10 or check to try to induce a bluff.

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i think a smaller bet...like 5 or 6 would induce him to bluff more than cking it...and if u gonna value bet it..10 sounds nice..he could still come over the top on that with his flush or higher pair

I like betting the turn (and probably the flop too) btw. By checking, we're giving a free card to a diamond. This certainly isn't a WA/WB scenario.

As played, it depends on what you think his range is. If villain plays like this with a 9, then we really need to bet the river, since he will almost never bet this river with a 9. However, if his range is mostly big diamonds and bluffs, then we've gotta check to him.

With his potsized bet on the flop & checking behind on the turn, I figure this guy's range as mostly draws. I suppose the 8 could have scared a 9, but draws play this way more than top pair.

Since we checked the turn, I think we need to go ahead and check the river, and try to pull another bet out of him. But if you know your opponent is pretty conservative & is unlikely to play draws that fast, I chuck out a value bet of ~$8.99.

/me votes for check/raise

c9h13no3 said:

I like betting the turn (and probably the flop too) btw. By checking, we're giving a free card to a diamond. This certainly isn't a WA/WB scenario.

As played, it depends on what you think his range is. If villain plays like this with a 9, then we really need to bet the river, since he will almost never bet this river with a 9. However, if his range is mostly big diamonds and bluffs, then we've gotta check to him.

With his potsized bet on the flop & checking behind on the turn, I figure this guy's range as mostly draws. I suppose the 8 could have scared a 9, but draws play this way more than top pair.

Since we checked the turn, I think we need to go ahead and check the river, and try to pull another bet out of him. But if you know your opponent is pretty conservative & is unlikely to play draws that fast, I chuck out a value bet of ~$8.99.

/me votes for check/raise

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why ck the river and not get paid anything???

daxter70 said:

why ck the river and not get paid anything???

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Why check the turn and not get paid anything is the real question.

But what if opponent's range is 90% flush draws? If we bet, they're folding. Sure, once in a blue moon, they'll shove on us, but then they're shove on us if we check as well if they're that crazy. We want to get max value out of our opponent, and if his range is largely a missed flush, then we need to check & let him bluff at the pot.

Just rereading HOCII and he makes a point of suggesting that when you have the nuts (or very near nuts) you should usually go all-in if there is even a moderate chance your opponent will call. He shows that your opponent doesn't have to call very often to make going all in the highest EV move. He then breaks down how often he would bet certain amounts in this situation (1st to act on river with nuts).

Roughly (from recent memory)
40% all-in
20% pot size bet
20% 3/4 pot bet
15% 1/2 pot bet
5% check

thus the smallish bet to make it look like u missed ur flush..or str8..and get paid SOMETHING...ck on the turn is good as to a made flush..yeah ur lettin them get free card to the flush..but ur gettin ur free card to a boat...and bingo!!

anything he's calling an all-in with, he'd bet himself if you checked (and in all likelihood call a c/r), so shoving is not very good here imo

i'd probably go for c/r, as pointed out, it doesnt really look like he has a made hand when he checks turn behind. vs the right opponent i might bet very small as a fake blocking bet and try to get raised

If it was me I would put in a very small bet of probablly $1.5 or $2.

c9h13no3 said:

/me votes for check/raise

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Just checking out why the username changes when quoted. Carry on.

/me actually votes ~3/4 pot bet.

Bet flop, bet turn, bet river. Your hand is vulnerable, you want value from the draws, and you don't want an action-killing card (overcard/flush card etc) to drop.

It would be nice if you included reads for once too instead of just pooping out a converted HH - the question of whether or not to let him bluff depends almost entirely on your reads on him. As played against what I assume is an unknown I probably just value bet this. If we had reads we could do anything from suck betting to shoving to check-raising all in.

But I try never to get myself in this situation with this hand - just bet the flop and probably the turn too.

As played, it's hard to tell what this looks like: for starters the action on the flop seems to be all out of order, NFI how the button managed to check before either of you acted.

My initial guess was that the pot-sized bet on the flop screamed "Everyone's missed and it's a mono-suit, I'll try to run you all out". And since that didn't have the desired effect, he shut down. If that's the case, I don't think villain has many hands in his range that will call a bet - only way I think would be if he flopped a set, but then why wouldn't he have bet the turn? He represented a monster on the flop and you called, the second 8 was hardly a scare card for you.

So I think most hands fold if you lead at the pot. Going for a check-raise is probably your best chance to get some more money in the pot, but I think most of the time you'll just see the villain give up and check behind you.

xCashin_inx said:

If it was me I would put in a very small bet of probablly $1.5 or $2.

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2 dollars into a 17 dollar pot? Seriously?

SeanyJ said:

2 dollars into a 17 dollar pot? Seriously?

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A bet like that is just asking to be raised, if you make a bet like that against an average player hes going to think the same thing you just wrote, what an odd bet, im reraising even if I had a pretty bad hand.

One thing I must...

...say, fold! JJ either is all in preflop and hope for the best, or play it out to your own bitter sweet end.

Another thing to consider is that by making a huge overbet and shoving, the villain may think we are doing this with a busted draw and might calls us down lighter than normal. Without reads though it is hard to say if this would work.

Given the action I probably bet out for like ~$10-12 and see where that takes me.

xCashin_inx said:

A bet like that is just asking to be raised, if you make a bet like that against an average player hes going to think the same thing you just wrote, what an odd bet, im reraising even if I had a pretty bad hand.

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What is he going to do with a $2 bet? Fold to a $2 bet with $17 in the pot? He cant do that. More than likely he will reraise with a decent hand when you make this bet, the last thing we want is just a call, sometimes he will just call though. Thats my theory behind making an extremely tiny bet.

SeanyJ, here is a perfect example as to why a bet like that can be a great move

pokerstars Game #17475001076: Hold'em No Limit ($0.02/$0.05) - 2008/05/16 - 16:41:31 (ET)
Table 'Illyria II' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: sveshnikov ($11.20 in chips)
Seat 2: The Burnz ($6.22 in chips)
Seat 3: OMERTA 57 ($5.30 in chips)
Seat 4: Stescho1983 ($11.19 in chips)
Seat 5: WouterFlush ($5.03 in chips)
Seat 6: xCaShiN_iNx ($9.95 in chips)
Stescho1983: posts small blind $0.02
WouterFlush: posts big blind $0.05
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to xCaShiN_iNx [Jd 8d]
xCaShiN_iNx: calls $0.05
sveshnikov: folds
OMERTA 57 said, "it was close"
The Burnz: calls $0.05
OMERTA 57 said, "hahahah"
OMERTA 57: calls $0.05
Stescho1983: calls $0.03
WouterFlush: raises $0.05 to $0.10
OMERTA 57 said, "nh"
xCaShiN_iNx: calls $0.05
The Burnz: calls $0.05
OMERTA 57: calls $0.05
Stescho1983: calls $0.05
*** FLOP *** [2c 9h 6h]
Stescho1983: checks
WouterFlush: checks
xCaShiN_iNx: checks
The Burnz: checks
OMERTA 57: checks
*** TURN *** [2c 9h 6h] [Ts]
Stescho1983: checks
WouterFlush: bets $0.20
xCaShiN_iNx: calls $0.20
The Burnz: folds
OMERTA 57: raises $0.40 to $0.60
Stescho1983: calls $0.60
WouterFlush: calls $0.40
xCaShiN_iNx: calls $0.40
*** RIVER *** [2c 9h 6h Ts] [7d]
Stescho1983: checks
WouterFlush: checks
xCaShiN_iNx: bets $0.05
OMERTA 57: raises $1.55 to $1.60
Stescho1983: folds
WouterFlush: folds
WouterFlush is sitting out
xCaShiN_iNx: raises $7.65 to $9.25 and is all-in
OMERTA 57: folds
Uncalled bet ($7.65) returned to xCaShiN_iNx
xCaShiN_iNx collected $5.80 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $6.10 | Rake $0.30
Board [2c 9h 6h Ts 7d]
Seat 1: sveshnikov folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: The Burnz folded on the Turn
Seat 3: OMERTA 57 (button) folded on the River
Seat 4: Stescho1983 (small blind) folded on the River
Seat 5: WouterFlush (big blind) folded on the River
Seat 6: xCaShiN_iNx collected ($5.80)

Why didn't you just bet 2$ yourself?

Check calling the flop makes no sense. You have an overpair on an incredibly drawy board so either lead out or check raise. Then bet turn. In this case, if he is still along for the ride i would probably check river and give him a chance to bluff the pot. If he is on a missed draw here a bluff is very likely since you could represent a double barrel that just gave up. If he called flop/turn bets/raises then he is not likely to check on the river with a missed draw after you checked because of the amount of money he has invested. Obviously the vast majority of times you aren't going to be hitting a runner runner boat so you have to bet or raise flop/turn imo.

Raise, raise raise.

Your hand is good but not amazing, its very suceptable to an overcard. Unless you flop a set then the aim here should be to drive out oponents to increase your chances of winning right there. You shouldnt be too upset if everyone folds pre flop.

xCashin_inx said:

SeanyJ, here is a perfect example as to why a bet like that can be a great move

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Ok...that hand is at .02/.05, the play is terrible and not really relevant to this hand. If the guy is going to raise a 2 dollar bet, then he is going to bet to if checked. If the guy really did miss his flush draw the only way we're going to get more money from him is if we check raise him.

I would say betting 2 dollars is the 2nd worst thing he could do, folding would be the worst.

with jj you have to played aggresive at the beggining... and if 3 hearts came in the flop u have 2 options... check fold or played all in..

xCashin_inx said:

A bet like that is just asking to be raised, if you make a bet like that against an average player hes going to think the same thing you just wrote, what an odd bet, im reraising even if I had a pretty bad hand.

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I'm with Cash_in ... I'd be more inclined to put in a smallish river bet to induce the bluff. I'd throw out a third of pot sized bet probably. Maybe $6 or so. If you check and he checks behind you you're losing value.. if he's caught a piece of the flop - top pair, overpair, set.. he'll at least call you down here. Best case scenario he takes this sign of weakness and comes over the top of you, or he actually does have the flush.

You cant give him the option of checking down when you're holding a hand like that, there's too many possible hands that will at least call a river bet. At least force him to make some sort of decision. you're still showing weakness with a small bet like that, just as you are with checking.