Jag's February downswing analysis.

Jagsti

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Ok, following on from my thread showing my sick graph of 160,000 where I go from a decent winner to a dramatic downswing losing approx 25 buy in's.

I'm gonna post 3 graphs to show the anatomy of february's total hands played. The 1st one shows total hands played and how much won/lost.

The 2nd will show every hand I was all in with and what my expected outcome should be and how I actually ran.

The 3rd graph again uses the same software as graph 2 (PokerEV), this shows a huge downswing in total winnings.
 

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SavagePenguin

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Have you pissed off any gypsies lately?
 
Jagsti

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So most of my play is at 6max 50nl, with a little 25nl and 100nl mixed in. I usually play a 18/12/2 type of game. This month I seem to have tightened up a little playing 15/10/2. This was not something I did on purpose, more to do with the fact or perception of I was card dead. Also as the downswing continues I think we automatically tighten up as a result.

The swing kicks in at around 16k. Now from graph 2 we can see that oughly 50% of my downswing is lost through bad luck in the all ins. I can live with that, but the 3rd graph show the difference between my showdown winnings ($1000 ish) and total winnings (-$1400). This suggests then that I'm folding a lot of hands that I have put a lot of equity into. I will try and dig out some of the hands were I'm folding after I have put in a fair bit of equity and we'll see if I'm playing bad or I'm just running into big hands etc.

Normally I play anything between 6-12 tables. Over the last few thousand hands I've have been playing 4 tables just to see were im going wrong. My normal style of play will be aggressive when I'm opening up, followed with aggression on the flop. If I still have villains in the pot on the turn and I haven't improved then I'm shutting down.

Anyways I'll dig out some hands, later and thx.
 
robwhufc

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Yoiks, I had to do a lot of scrolling down to see all of the first graph!

2nd one, do you have any idea of how that is calculated? Presumably it looks at all of the hands that you were all-in with then calculates how much you would have won if you had won your fair percentage, but does it factor in betting? You could for example check KK in the BB, then put all of your chips in post flop on an Ace high board versus A2. Presumably this would show you as "unlucky"?
 
Jagsti

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Some more stats to consider before I post some HH's

Comparing FEB's stats to DEC and JAN.

.......................Dec ...............Jan ....................Feb

winrate .........11bb/100 .......3.4bb/100 .........-3.7bb/100

PP's TT-JJ .....3.39bb/hand ...3.05bb/hand ......1.91bb/hand

PP's 22-99 .....0.97/hand ......0.49bb/hand ......0.24bb/hand
 
Jagsti

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Yoiks, I had to do a lot of scrolling down to see all of the first graph!

Really! it may have something to do with resolution. It looks ok on my screen, sorry bout that.

2nd one, do you have any idea of how that is calculated? Presumably it looks at all of the hands that you were all-in with then calculates how much you would have won if you had won your fair percentage, but does it factor in betting? You could for example check KK in the BB, then put all of your chips in post flop on an Ace high board versus A2. Presumably this would show you as "unlucky"?

It's actually a programme used to compare your play to winning or losing Sklansky's bucks. The all in luck graphs shows how well/bad your running when getting your money in. So my understanding of it is that if the blue line is below red then you have been sucked out on and if blue is above red then you are getting your money in behind and sucking out afaik. Maybe some others who use can give a better explanation.

^^^^
 
zachvac

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2nd one, do you have any idea of how that is calculated? Presumably it looks at all of the hands that you were all-in with then calculates how much you would have won if you had won your fair percentage, but does it factor in betting? You could for example check KK in the BB, then put all of your chips in post flop on an Ace high board versus A2. Presumably this would show you as "unlucky"?

No, this is equity when the money goes in. It's an all-in luck graph because it calculates your equity as of your all-in and compares it to your actual winnings. So in that case above your equity would be less than half the pot since you're essentially drawing to 2 outs. If you had pushed and been called preflop in that scenario, then the equity would be relatively high (not sure what the percentage there is offhand)
 
ChuckTs

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to be honest I'm not sure how much we can tell you that you haven't already figured out yourself from these graphs. I think you'll get much better help/input if you post HHs where you feel you played poorly.
 
Jagsti

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OK here goes, I'll post about 6 hands to start:

Hand 1

Villain is a 55/6/2.


poker stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $84.60
SB: $75.30
BB: $93.60
UTG: $108.95
CO: $7

Pre-Flop: 3
spadenormal.gif
3
heartnormal.gif
dealt to Hero (BTN)
2 folds, Hero raises to $2, SB calls $1.75, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($6) 3
clubnormal.gif
T
heartnormal.gif
K
heartnormal.gif
(3 Players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $4.25, SB calls $4.25, BB folds

Turn: ($14.50) 7
heartnormal.gif
(2 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($14.50) Q
heartnormal.gif
(2 Players)
SB bets $4.50, Hero?



Hand 2

Villain is TAG 18/14/ infinate AF
party poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 4 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: $50.09
BB: $50.75
UTG: $52.75
Hero (BTN): $71.72

Pre-Flop: A
diamondnormal.gif
Q
heartnormal.gif
dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $2, SB folds, BB raises to $7, Hero raises to $27, BB raises to $50.25 and is All-In, Hero ?



Hand 3

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: $51.50
BB: $30.45
Hero (UTG): $53.10
CO: $47.75
BTN: $16.95

Pre-Flop: 7
diamondnormal.gif
7
spadenormal.gif
dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to $2, CO calls $2, 3 folds

Flop: ($4.75) 7
heartnormal.gif
6
heartnormal.gif
9
spadenormal.gif
(2 Players)
Hero bets $3.25, CO calls $3.25

Turn: ($11.25) 3
heartnormal.gif
(2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $5.50, Hero calls $5.50

River: ($22.25) 5
clubnormal.gif
(2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $17, Hero?



Hand 4

villain is 33/24/2.3

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

CO: $55.25
BTN: $35.45
Hero (SB): $52.20
BB: $63.30
UTG: $99.20
MP: $53.25

Pre-Flop: J
clubnormal.gif
J
diamondnormal.gif
dealt to Hero (SB)
2 folds, CO calls $0.50, BTN folds, Hero raises to $2.50, BB calls $2, CO folds

Flop: ($5.50) J
spadenormal.gif
9
clubnormal.gif
6
spadenormal.gif
(2 Players)
Hero bets $3.75, BB calls $3.75

Turn: ($13) 7
spadenormal.gif
(2 Players)
Hero bets $6.50, BB calls $6.50

River: ($26) T
clubnormal.gif
(2 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets $19, Hero?




Hand 5

villains utg is 49/22/13, sb is 19/13/3.7

Party Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: $73.38
BB: $49.25
UTG: $56.97
Hero (MP): $84.23
CO: $45.50
BTN: $161.65

Pre-Flop: A
clubnormal.gif
K
spadenormal.gif
dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $5.25, 2 folds, SB calls $5, BB folds, UTG raises to $9, Hero calls $3.75, SB calls $3.75

Flop: ($27.50) 6
spadenormal.gif
3
clubnormal.gif
5
heartnormal.gif
(3 Players)
SB checks, UTG bets $10.50, hero ?




Hand 6

villain 23/19/2.2

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $46.50
UTG: $55.55
CO: $57.25
BTN: $41.80
SB: $23.25

Pre-Flop: K
clubnormal.gif
K
spadenormal.gif
dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG folds, CO raises to $2, 2 folds, Hero raises to $6, CO calls $4

Flop: ($12.25) A
heartnormal.gif
3
spadenormal.gif
2
clubnormal.gif
(2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $5, Hero calls $5

Turn: ($22.25) 5
spadenormal.gif
(2 Players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($22.25) Q
spadenormal.gif
(2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $10, Hero?
 
ChuckTs

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Just post them in HA as separate threads - the responses here will get very scattered and confusing :)

Hand 1: Bet turn - you can't immediately give credit for a flush here and need to protect vs the backdoor. You also still have solid equity. As played fold.

Hand 2: not really sure tbh...if you're 4-betting this you should probably be calling a shove, esp given your odds.

Hand 3: Again bet turn. As played prob fold riv again :(

Hand 4: Much better - as played I call. There are enough 2 pair hands and other shite you're ahead of.

Hand 5: 3-bet/shove pf. We don't want villain to take the pot away from us like he's about to here on a rag flop - we're way ahead of a 49/22s range pf and we should punish him for doing this with 99/KQ/AJ etc.

Hand 6: I raise a little more OOP, but $6 is fine. Postflop is pretty standard and I'm calling this riv a lot of the time.
 
Jagsti

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I just didn't want to clog the whole HA with a load of my hands, but I understand what your saying m8.
 
WVHillbilly

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I have a general question Jag and I don't mean to threadjack here, but is it normal to have your SD winnings be more than your overall winnings? I noticed Zach had the same thing. I used PokerEV after seeing Zach's graphs and my SD winnings are less than my overall, not much but somewhat. Is this something I'm doing wrong or right?
 
ChuckTs

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Yes WV because most of the hands you make the most money with reach showdown. I think you 'should' be losing most of your money on earlier streets when you fold.
 
WVHillbilly

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I am making MORE money on hands that reach SD but I guess what I am saying is that I am also making $$ on those that don't. I don't have the numbers here at work but if my overall winnings are $300 my SD winnings are $260 (so non-SD would be $40). It just seems odd than my non-SD winnings would be positive at all when both Zach's and Jag's are large negatives.
 
ChuckTs

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I think it's a style thing - I'd guess that in general FR players would see showdowns with much stronger hands, and would make most of their money there, whereas a 6-max player might be more aggressive and make more money playing his position and taking more pots away before showdown...

I'm really not very learned in terms of PokerEV graphs so take what I'm saying with a grain of salt - I'm just making an educated guess as to what it might mean.
 
Jagsti

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Normally my green line (Total winnings) is higher and closer to the blue line. The difference between the 2 is how your non showdown hands are peforming. The ideal scenario I suspect, is to get both as high as possible and as close to each other as possible.

I think it's difficult to use these graphs in isolation to find out things. For instance the green line above blue could mean your winning a lot of pots that don't go to showdown, and the ones that do go to SD your not doing as well. Or you could just be going to SD too frequently, or your getting sucked out a lot. Whats your ALL in graph like? Thats usually a good indication of how well you running.

The only thing I can take from the 3rd graph is that I'm losing shit loads on non SD hands. Also I'm not running well, LDO!
 
WVHillbilly

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"I think it's difficult to use these graphs in isolation to find out things. For instance the green line above blue could mean your winning a lot of pots that don't go to showdown, and the ones that do go to SD your not doing as well. Or you could just be going to SD too frequently, or your getting sucked out a lot. "

This is what I was trying to infer. Am I seeing too many SDs with the worst of it (only about 24% of my flops seen) or am I betting too aggressively and everyone is folding before reaching SD (therefor losing value). I guess the graph doesn't really tell me that.

I am running well. My lines are above the Sklansky line and my all-in line is above the expected.
 
Munchrs

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Use PT3 to graph you showdown winnings and non-showdown winnings. It will save you doing the math :D.

Also Jagsti can you post your December graph and January graph so we can get an idea of what you played like whilst winning. Also stats with those please.

I think that you yourself said you had tightened up which is a bad thing. I know its hard to play the same all the time but even when you are in a downswing you need to do your best to play your A game. Cutting down tables helps(which you did so cudos) and concentrating on playing the odds and players not just the fact that your cards always seem to loose.

If you stick to the same game that has proven you are a good winner over a statisticaly significant period then your downswing should not last as long as if you tighten up or become less aggressive when you loose.
 
Jagsti

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Munchrs - I'm gonna d/l PT3 when I get my new pc. The laptop Im using probably wouldn't cope with the transfer of the database from PT2 - PT3.

I'll post the graphs in a jiffy.
 
Jagsti

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For comparison purposes, I'm gonna post dec and jan graphs. Now in dec I was on a heater and had a winrate of approx 11ptbb/100. Also you can see from dec luck graph, that I was running ahead of expected (lucky). Interestingly from dec total graph, my green line runs really close to the blue line. This indicates that not only have I run well in SD winnings, my non-SD winnings have been running well also.

Jan I ran at 3.4ptbb/100. Now the jan luck graphs shows i ran pretty standard and as expected. The jan total graph shows the green line separating away from the blue again. Am I making a correct assumption then that as long as your SD winnings run as expected, then the only way to make decent profit is through your non SD play? Or is that too simplistic.
 

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Jagsti

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January's
 

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Munchrs

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To me jag, it looks like that you febuary all in luck is way down and that is whats causing the majority of your losses. This may be coupled with tilt. Where you dont make adjustments to your game to compensate for the horible luck you are getting.

My advice is, take a week off poker. Go cold turkey, no forums, no watching and no playing for a week. Then get back into things and really concentrate on playing your A game. Try and think of it as a fresh start and all the loses of Feburary do not exist anymore. If the downswing is bugging you then you are playing emotionally so you need to get away and detach your emotions from the game. IMO the best way to do this is to take a break.
 
CrackaNACtion

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dang jag u mustve like made someone put a crappy luck hex on u :p lol. hopefully itll pick up and ull get up a couple grand within the next few weeks :) Im rootin for u :)
 
Jagsti

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Thanks for your support guys. I have been taking some time off lately, in fact I've hardly played these last few days. I've been looking through my PT stats and other stuff to sort some things out. Certainly, I have become too nitty. I need to get more aggressive post flop that's for sure.

In response to your evaluation of this sample of hands Chuck, I pretty much would play these like you have evaluated them. Obv though I get too results orientated and am scared of losing more BI's, hence the weak play. I'll show you my spew plays on these hands.

Just post them in HA as separate threads - the responses here will get very scattered and confusing :)

Hand 1: Bet turn - you can't immediately give credit for a flush here and need to protect vs the backdoor. You also still have solid equity. As played fold.

Should have bet turn, folded river.

Hand 2: not really sure tbh...if you're 4-betting this you should probably be calling a shove, esp given your odds.

Not sure why I called here b/c I knew it was spewy, He turns over AK.

Hand 3: Again bet turn. As played prob fold riv again :(

agreed bet turn, I folded once again!

Hand 4: Much better - as played I call. There are enough 2 pair hands and other shite you're ahead of.

I usually call this all day long. certainly against his stats, but I convinced myself to fold :eek:

Hand 5: 3-bet/shove pf. We don't want villain to take the pot away from us like he's about to here on a rag flop - we're way ahead of a 49/22s range pf and we should punish him for doing this with 99/KQ/AJ etc.

Another reason why I hate calling a 3bet with AK, coz we get blank flop and I fold :eek:

Hand 6: I raise a little more OOP, but $6 is fine. Postflop is pretty standard and I'm calling this riv a lot of the time.
His bet looks kinda weak on the river, but my negativety plays into his hands - Fold.

A lot of these hands were at the back end of the downswing and as you can see I was playing scared. I will go back to it soon after doing some more study and see where it takes me. GL all and thx for the advice and support.
 
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