re: Poker & Jacked off... by ducks
Originally Posted by loopmeister
When you say you should know better, you mean you should have folded to a set? Should 22 / 44 / 55 even have been in this hand? Or A3 for that matter?
Or should you have been scared of QQ / KK / AA?
Without being result-oriented, I don't see how you could be that upset with this play. MP made 2 mistakes, the pf call and the all-in bluff- and got lucky.
I made two mistakes here that seem obvious in retrospect, without the benefit of hindsight.
with a JJ, raise to 5xBB is pretty sloppy. There's two ways to play this PF - pretend its a small/medium pair and call or small raise it, or try to take the PF pot by overbetting. by betting 5x (I don't know what I was thinking), all I'm doing is making it so only the hands most likely to beat me are calling, without pushing any of those hands out.
2nd - keep an eye on the stack sizes. Pot is 60ish PF, and I raise 80 on the flop after a bet and call. Against a deep stack, this is fine. But look at it from MP's point of view:
35 of his 95 chips are committed. The pot at this stage is 180, and he only need to put in 60 to get in, with no chance of losing more (because he's all in). Lets assume he puts me on a pocket pair higher than the board, but not AA. He's got 9 outs (two 2's, three A's, four 3's) for a better hand. 9 outs is roughly a 35% chance of hitting the turn or river - so he's priced in. Even if he didn't pair the board, he still has 7 outs -enough outs to justify a call. Basically, any Ace is going to call here.