I suck postflop. 99 vs positional caller

Again, I've been tag, and villain this time approaches LAP, but is slightly more aggressive. Our turn action is?

Pokerstars Game (?) HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.10/$0.25) - 2007/11/05 - 20:04:44 (ET)
Table 'Sylvia IV' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: raff1984 ($20.30 in chips)
Seat 2: silva17 ($10.70 in chips)
Seat 3: brimacbt ($19.75 in chips)
Seat 4: Hero ($25.15 in chips)
Seat 5: anthb7210p ($26.50 in chips)
Seat 6: TTtheC ($24.90 in chips)
TTtheC: posts small blind $0.10
raff1984: posts big blind $0.25

Holecards:
Dealt to Hero [

]
silva17: folds
brimacbt: calls $0.25
Hero : raises $0.75 to $1
anthb7210p: calls $1
TTtheC: folds
raff1984: folds
brimacbt: folds

Flop: (Pot: $2.6)
[

]
Hero : bets $2
anthb7210p: calls $2

Turn: (Pot: $6.6)
[

] [

]
Hero : ...

Ok so let's see if we can't narrow down villain's range here. He called your preflop raise, so that means he's on what he considers at least a decent hand. You say he's approaching LAP, so that will increase his range somewhat. If he's slightly aggressive, then I think he will be raising with certain hands instead of just calling.

So let's break it down. Hands that are in his range that have you beat right now: AJ, KJ, QJ, JJ, J10. J9 is unlikely given that you have 2 of the 9s already. JJ he would most likely raise with I imagine, given that he is somewhat aggressive, so we can probably throw that out. Same as 88 and 55.

Any other pocket pair that is probably 66+ is fair game still, other than 88, 99 and JJ.

If he's loose, then I would certainly say that 56, 67, 78 and 89s are all in his range here, at which point you are ahead for the moment.

Is this player a solid enough player to not go chasing a flush without the odds to do so? A $2 flop bet into a pot of $2.60 won't give him the odds to call here. If he's solid enough to fold on a draw, then we can eliminate the flush from his range, since he would not have called the flop bet.

So I think we can narrow his range down to straight draws, and top pair with a flush redraw, or two pair if he is playing gap connectors.

I think we are behind here, but we have a ton of outs. Double belly buster straight draw is 6, 7 remaining hearts, 2 more 9s, so thats 15 outs. We have to be careful with the hearts, because we may not be ahead in that case (unless it's the 10, and then we want him to have the A).

I think we have 2 options here. We can make a value bet and see where we stand. Or we can check/raise him if/when he bets. Personally, I don't like the check/raise option because he can come over the top and then we are in a pickle. I think I make a value bet of like $4 here. If he calls, we are most definitely behind but still alive, if he raises, I think we are toast and time to fold.

I check this turn and re-evaluate the river, trying to get to showdown as cheaply as possible. If he's loose passive he'll call you down, so you aren't going to push him off a hand that he calls a $2 flop bet with. Also if he's passive then chances are he lets us get to showdown cheaply anyway, and if he starts betting out we can confidently fold.

FWIW I think villain's range is wider than fatjose suggests (and I don't think he has top pair with a flush draw... er, DUCY?). A large proportion (almost all, I'd say) of hands calling pre-flop will peel this flop. "Solid enough to not go chasing the flush... ? I'm calling here with a flush draw in position every time (often raising), thinking I'll often be a favourite with the flush draw and possibly two live cards - if he has middle cards he has a pair or straight draw to go with it; if he's playing high cards he has overs.

The trouble with firing another barrell here is that it doesn't really fold out anything you beat. AJ/KJ are definitely calling, QJ might fold, TT might fold, JT / J9 have picked up a straight draw and will probably use that as an excuse to call.

If he was on a draw he's most likely just hit. (reason to check)
If he has a weak made hand then he'll probably try to check it down cheaply. (probably wasn't calling another bet by you anyway)

If you are behind a better pair / set, calling a reasonable bet is close to neutral EV in terms of pod odds, so folding can't be bad. I don't think a flush is getting paid off much on the river... maybe a straight will, but you're only about 12% to hit that, and you're out of position, which makes it more difficult. Also don't forget reverse implied odds because he might just have hit the draw himself. And one card draws are of course a lot worse than two card draws, because they're obvious and don't get paid off, and are much more likely to be beaten by one card that your opponent might have.

It's possible you'll get bluffed if you check, but you can't win every hand.

Might seem a bit weak, but check and fold to a bet of half pot or more.

Nice post b.j.

I agree; no offense, jose, but some of your ranges just don't make sense. Why is 55 reraising PF but not 66?

A flush is a definite possibility, as is any pair that has us beat, and we're certainly not betting out anything that has us beat. Ch-f seems standard to me.

I of course acted differently , betting and ch-calling a 4-flush river like a fish. Was definitely tilting at the time, and slapped my face to remind me never to make these types of calls again. I seriously have a curiosity problem and it's gotta stop for me to succeed in rings.

Just hideous.

Anyways, ch-f at this point. We're not betting out better hands, aren't getting many calls from worse ones, and are behind most of the time here anyways.

Schatzdog said:

I check this turn and re-evaluate the river, trying to get to showdown as cheaply as possible. If he's loose passive he'll call you down, so you aren't going to push him off a hand that he calls a $2 flop bet with. Also if he's passive then chances are he lets us get to showdown cheaply anyway, and if he starts betting out we can confidently fold.

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I tend to agree with Schatz, except I might call a river bet since our flop bet/turn check might induce a bluff bet on the river. That depends on how passive you read him and whether he's likely to read weakness and bet the river with nothing.

Yeah this looks like a pretty standard check-fold - your retrospective analysis is right. It's a pretty drawy flop, and the turn has hit any possible draw out there. If he's called the flop with hearts - he's hit his flush. If he's called the flop with T9 - he's hit his straight. He's obv not folding in either of these situations and the average $25NL player won't fold a lot of TP hands here that he may have called the flop with too.

It's possible he's just floating the flop with KQ or something (I'd imagine hands like AK/AQ/TT would be reraising pre, though again at $25NL this may not always be the case) and will bluff us out on the turn, but this isn't happening nearly as often as the aforementioned.

Yeah this looks like a pretty standard check-fold - your retrospective analysis is right. It's a pretty drawy flop, and the turn has hit any possible draw out there. If he's called the flop with hearts - he's hit his flush. If he's called the flop with T9 - he's hit his straight. He's obv not folding in either of these situations and the average $25NL player won't fold a lot of TP hands here that he may have called the flop with too.

It's possible he's just floating the flop with KQ or something (I'd imagine hands like AK/AQ/TT would be reraising pre, though again at $25NL this may not always be the case) and will bluff us out on the turn, but this isn't happening nearly as often as the aforementioned.

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KQo will probably abort floating on such a turn since many hands got there, especially if he is passive. I check/fold this like 99% of the time.

jeffred1111 said:

KQo will probably abort floating on such a turn since many hands got there, especially if he is passive. I check/fold this like 99% of the time.

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Perhaps, but flop drawing hands form a greater part of villain's range as far as we're concerned than our range as far as villain is concerned, if that makes any sense.

I guess it depends on how much credit we can give villain's thought process here. Seeing as it's $25NL we're probably both reading too much into it and if villain were to bluff having floated the flop with say KQ, his rationale behind a turn bluff would probably be something like "ME BLUFF NOW GRAAARRRRRGGGG" rather than something like "I don't necessarily give my opponent a lot of credit for a drawing hand based on the action thus far, and given that drawing hands form a reasonable portion of the range he will be assigning me and the possibility that he was just continuation betting the flop with missed overcards or a mid-low pair a turn bluff wouldn't necessarily be a bad idea".

Anyway, it's all pretty moot because it's a c/f on the basis that the above isn't happening significantly often anyway, heh.

I agree; no offense, jose, but some of your ranges just don't make sense. Why is 55 reraising PF but not 66?

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If this guy has a pocket pair, then he is going to be just as afraid of the draw heavy board as we are, since he most likely is not getting a ton of help either. If he hit bottom set, I can't imagine him not raising here and trying to take down the pot on the flop without letting us see another card. Even though we are OOP here, we are the ones leading into him with the betting, representing that we have caught at least some of the flop. So I can easily see a smaller pocket pair just calling down for cheap if he still has some outs available.

I think 2 suited over cards are raising here, and I think that if he has something like A rags suited, that he might call here as well. But, if he's playing something crazy like 23h, then he is most definitely not getting the odds to call this, so you can eliminate the low end flush draws (hence my question about whether he chases or not).

for me i think that 7210 has A/? of hearts or a couple of suited heart connectors and is willing too go too the river too see what he can hit since he missed his ace flop but made a good draw hes going too call no matter what the bet even if you had over bet the pot with a flopped set not that you flopped a set but more tyme than not ring games means chasers doesnt mater what limit you play some players I know play the smaller limit games because they dont risk as much of there br on chasing but stand too make large pots when they do chase and hit. with the board not paired hes not worried about the boat and he probley put you on A/K or A/Q with your raise and figured he would call the raise just too see the flop in hopes of hitting if not he could just fold and be out just a buck but since he hit his drawing hand he was staying for next too cards just too see what might come his way. My guess is that he made his flush on the turn and is letting you bet in too a made hand now and letting you catch up in the hand come river tyme hes going too value bet in hopes of a reraise from you or at min at least a call either way I think you are sunk.