re: Poker & How do you predict he's holding 35o?
Originally Posted by switch0723
^^ Because shoving with a huge overbet into someone who has re raised a 4 to straight river, is a bet that is only going to be called by a hand that beats you, therefore it is -EV
So by default doing the opposite (what i said) is the +EV/0 play
Your reasoning lies in these 2 assumptions:
1) Shoving is an overbet. Its not. Villain only has 86 cents left in his stack, and the pot is $4.56 when we shove. Even if villain has 46, he's not folding getting 5.3:1 on his $.
2) Raised a 4 to straight river only means a straight. It doesn't, especially against players this fishy.
Lets say villain's range on the river is as follows (just hypothetical):
A6, 57, 78, 55
2 of these hands beat us, and we lose 86 cents raising the river. 2 of those hands we beat, and we gain 86 cents on the river (they're not folding, due to pot odds
, ect.). This play is neutral EV.
And given this fish, I think we see 2 pair here almost as often as a straight. Is raising the river -EV? Probably, but only slightly IMO. Its not as huge a mistake as you make it out to be.
The real mistake is not stacking off on the turn when only 4 hands beat us (AA, 88, 66, and 57). It allowed villain to draw to his straight, and will often lose us value against 2 pair/big draws. What if a heart came on the river? Is A8 calling our bets then? Do we even bet the river if a non-pair heart comes?
He stacked you didnt he??!!?!?!?!
How is that relevant? I can stack players by shoving all in with 27os, but it doesn't mean I play sanely. When playing loose opponents, you can make plays which would be -EV against good opponents that are +EV against bad ones (due to your opponent's loose range).
Also, trying to argue for your point of view by saying "He stacked you didn't he" is about the most results oriented post I can think of.
This is why you hide the results of your hand.