Originally Posted by feitr
-10nl and therefore the odds that villain has a clue about positional ranges and how you should adjust your range to that is probably close to nothing
-villain is an unknown and your average 10nl player is probably terrible
-villain is aggro
4 betting and getting it in is probably ok. Flatting is pretty gross, but I guess you could flat it and just go when you get tptk if you aren't happy getting it in pf or folding...but typically that is a terrible play because you are oop, having to fold when you miss, and not always getting action when you hit.
So fold or 4 bet get it in and i don't really see how you can fold AKs vs a aggro 10nl player that is unknown. Sure villain might actually be an 18/18 but they might also be a 50/50 as well. And if villain showed up with AA here i'd suspect it had more to do with villain hitting the top of their range rather than an accurate reflection of their 3 betting range here.
Course i've never played nl10 FR so i have no idea what ppl stack off with there.
yes, we only have a small sample of hands, but in the absence of any more concrete information it makes the most sense to base our reads on what little information we have. if we conclude that villain is (a) bad at poker and hence probably doesn't know what UTG+1 is, nevermind adjusts his 3-betting range given a UTG+1 raise accordingly and (b) is a bit of a lagtard and will 3-bet with AQ and maybe even AJ here, we can't really let AK go at any stage in the hand. Even when he shoves he could still be doing it with AQ, and by that point you have too much invested in the pot to seriously consider folding.
maybe i've been playing too many SNGs but i want to say i like 4-bet shoving here. to anyone with half a brain 4-bet shoving makes it look like you have exactly what you have (AK), but most 10NL players don't have half a brain and will play for stacks with AQ or even silly hands like KQs. obviously if our opponent is a nitty 100NL reg or something we can easily fold to the 3-bet, but that isn't the case here.
calling the 3-bet is horrible - you would be playing OOP in a 3-bet pot without the initiative. you will miss most flops, you will get shoved on most flops, if you're going to see a flop and play fit or fold here you are spewing. if you're going to see a flop and shove blind, you're spewing.