re: Poker & Hand at the Venetian
Originally Posted by ChuckTs
Your line doesn't spell great strength
She check/raised the turn. I'm guessing you misread the HH.
I understand your POV in getting value. Some of the hands he may have will likely check behind us, but you can't be really sure they would call a bet either. I think the key is her image up to this point, which is tight. A bet here after check/raising the turn won't get called by many hands that we beat like 77, 66, 8x. It would get called by 5x of course, but chances are 5x will bet if checked into. Because of her image, I think overpairs to the board might fold also.
The downside to checking is that she's been forced by bad cards to play tight, so it won't be easy to get many of those hands worse than ours to bet if we check. But also, I'm always worried vs players that are known to play a wide range of hands, and the fact he called the check/raise makes me a bit uneasy. The pot is $240 so if we bet even 1/2 of it and get reraised or even worse shoved on, what next? I'd have to think we are somehow beat, but the problem is that bet/fold is very hard to do when the pot gets that big.
When you go through the hand step by step, it's consistent all the way with villain having 44 or 88. He limped, then called raise PF after another 2 were in. His flop check is normal on that board with PF raiser to act after him. Flat calling the check/raise on the turn, which came from a player OOP, rather than reraising, is a great move if you do have a FH.
Obviously you can't pinpoint him on 88 or 44, but you have to ask yourself what he could have to call the check/raise. It could be even 76s for a straight, which again is consistent with his play on every street so far, and you have to think he won't fold it to a pot size bet, even with our tightish image.
I always agree on doing what you can to maximize value, but still I think check/calling is the better move here, unless you're capable of bet/folding to a raise (I'm usually not ).