Hand #2 25NL FR: AQs EP w/1 caller

15th hand at the same table as the "Hand #1" thread. This is only the villain's 5th hand at the table.

PF is standard, but I'm OOP post-flop. I fire a near-pot semi-bluff bet with what I hope is 15 outs (nut flush draw & 2 overs). But he 3-bets and makes it about 2-1 to call.

How solid can my Ace outs be against this play? How much does my lack of a read on him come into play? Can I put him on an overpair here?


pokerstars GAME #18523089321: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.10/$0.25) - 2008/07/02 - 00:26:00 (ET)
Table 'Repsolda' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: Earlharbo ($22.50 in chips)
Seat 2: MrSticker66 ($27.60 in chips)
Seat 4: drewwid ($25 in chips)
Seat 5: idoesdis ($27.65 in chips)
Seat 6: turnip06 ($22 in chips)
Seat 7: Fat Stack07 ($9.65 in chips)
Seat 8: dankimball ($24.75 in chips)
Seat 9: quikash ($13.05 in chips)
dankimball: posts small blind $0.10
quikash: posts big blind $0.25
Dur_Bug: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to MrSticker66 [As Qs]
Earlharbo: folds
MrSticker66: raises $0.75 to $1
drewwid: calls $1
idoesdis: folds
turnip06: folds
Fat Stack07: folds
dankimball: folds
quikash: folds
*** FLOP *** [Js 3s 5c]
MrSticker66: bets $2
drewwid: raises $4.50 to $6.50
MrSticker66: .....

i would't expect to see an overpair here. overpairs would most likely 3bet preflop.

I think villain's range here is sets, AJ and good draws (flush, oesd).

i would be folding that most of the time, relative dry board except for flush draw + no reads he has you beat now and your ace will probably not likely to be live all of the time. I think at best your ace is live 1 in 3 so you really only have 13outs which makes this a much easier fold.

Another factor I think we should consider is the fact that by calling or shoving we are commiting and we dont really want to commit to a large pot with a hand that in reality is only going to be a big hand when we hit the flush. Against an unknown who buys in deep i give them credit until they prove they dont deserve any credit.

If villian is short meh easy call, the fact that its deep and against an unknow makes me lean toward folding much rather than calling.

BelgoSuisse said:

i would't expect to see an overpair here. overpairs would most likely 3bet preflop.

I think villain's range here is sets, AJ and good draws (flush, oesd).

Click to expand...

Diddnt see this before but,

I think thats a pretty accurate hand range for this board and an unknown.

BelgoSuisse said:

i would't expect to see an overpair here. overpairs would most likely 3bet preflop.

Click to expand...

At 25NL, I've been stung quite a few times by big pairs just flat calling in a case like this. Not sure if it is a valid fear or I might just be gunshy nitty now because of it.

Anyway. I won the hand as it turned out and my 15 outs were all good. But I'm still not sure I played this correctly.

I called the paired turn at about 1.8-1 and I can't really say I read this guy correctly (no "soul read"). Was I commited by then? Or was it a donkey call?


POKERSTARS GAME #18523089321: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.10/$0.25) - 2008/07/02 - 00:26:00 (ET)
Table 'Repsolda' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: Earlharbo ($22.50 in chips)
Seat 2: MrSticker66 ($27.60 in chips)
Seat 4: drewwid ($25 in chips)
Seat 5: idoesdis ($27.65 in chips)
Seat 6: turnip06 ($22 in chips)
Seat 7: Fat Stack07 ($9.65 in chips)
Seat 8: dankimball ($24.75 in chips)
Seat 9: quikash ($13.05 in chips)
dankimball: posts small blind $0.10
quikash: posts big blind $0.25
Dur_Bug: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to MrSticker66 [As Qs]
Earlharbo: folds
MrSticker66: raises $0.75 to $1
drewwid: calls $1
idoesdis: folds
turnip06: folds
Fat Stack07: folds
dankimball: folds
quikash: folds
*** FLOP *** [Js 3s 5c]
MrSticker66: bets $2
drewwid: raises $4.50 to $6.50
MrSticker66: calls $4.50
*** TURN *** [Js 3s 5c] [Jh]
MrSticker66: checks
drewwid: bets $8.50
MrSticker66: calls $8.50
*** RIVER *** [Js 3s 5c Jh] [Ah]
MrSticker66: checks
drewwid: bets $9 and is all-in
MrSticker66: calls $9
*** SHOW DOWN ***
drewwid: shows [9d 9h] (two pair, Jacks and Nines)
MrSticker66: shows [As Qs] (two pair, Aces and Jacks)
MrSticker66 collected $47.95 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $50.35 | Rake $2.40
Board [Js 3s 5c Jh Ah]
Seat 1: Earlharbo folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: MrSticker66 showed [As Qs] and won ($47.95) with two pair, Aces and Jacks
Seat 4: drewwid showed [9d 9h] and lost with two pair, Jacks and Nines
Seat 5: idoesdis folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: turnip06 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: Fat Stack07 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: dankimball (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: quikash (big blind) folded before Flop

Buddy list this villain...