Originally Posted by robwhufc
How can you possibly include all 1,326 possible hand combinations in your argument? - from the possible hands that would have raised, re-raised and capped on a flop of J,T,9, I would say that the chance of at least 1 jack being out is not pretty slim, it is likely. And if a Jack is being played, then it's not beyond the realms of possibilities that the starting hand was J T. Surely the only hands that can still be betting and calling on the river are over pair (AA KK QQ) a straight (possible lower straight) 3 of a kind or full house. With 2 people calling and a sizeable pot, i'd forego the final 2 or 3 bets in case of the full house.
You ever played at a loose table? I saw a threeway pot capped on the flop and the turn, 3 bet on the river, they all turned over their cards to show two people had a pair of aces, and one had two pair. This was on a board that had multiple straight possiblities. This bet has 1:3 pot odds
(they're all going to call it, no one's folding at this point). Are you telling me that over 66% of the time one of the other players has a full house?
My point was not that players would call all the way with any hand, my point was that the chance of any player having a full house is very, very slim. Preflop the chance of anyone having the cards to make a fullhouse/four of a kind is 18%, discounting the wise players who don't play J-5 and J-9. It's much harder to read people's bets in limit than in no limit, and when a set/straight/full house all bet the same, I'm gonna go with the most likely holdings, not the scariest.