Good Bluff or Bad Line?

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TCashMoney19

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Hey guys, here is a hand I played recently at 2NL on ACR. I'll write my thoughts on the hand after I post the hand history. Any thoughts/feedback would be appreciated! Thanks. Here is the hand:

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 98.5 BB (VPIP: 13.15, PFR: 12.21, 3Bet Preflop: 5.06, hands: 217)
BTN: 101 BB (VPIP: 14.61, PFR: 10.11, 3Bet Preflop: 1.72, Hands: 360)
Hero (SB): 105 BB
BB: 253.5 BB (VPIP: 9.41, PFR: 7.06, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 85)
UTG: 274.5 BB (VPIP: 39.29, PFR: 35.71, 3Bet Preflop: 28.57, Hands: 28)
MP: 273.5 BB (VPIP: 17.78, PFR: 7.85, 3Bet Preflop: 0.60, Hands: 437)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q:club: 5:club:

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 3 BB, Hero raises to 9.5 BB, fold, BTN calls 6.5 BB

Flop: (20 BB, 2 players) 4:club: 6:heart: 2:club:
Hero bets 10.5 BB, BTN calls 10.5 BB

Turn: (41 BB, 2 players) 4:spade:
Hero checks, BTN bets 42 BB, Hero raises to 85 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 39 BB and is all-in

River: (203 BB, 2 players) T:heart:

BTN shows J:diamond: J:heart: (Two Pair, Jacks and Fours)
(Pre 68%, Flop 45%, Turn 68%)
Hero shows Q:club: 5:club: (One Pair, Fours)
(Pre 32%, Flop 55%, Turn 32%)
BTN wins 193 BB

3 BB was deducted from the pot for the jackpot.
 
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mad_chils139

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Dont think JJ is folding there.. board is not wet enough for you to bluff river.. all flush draws missed and straight draws as well if picked up any on turn.. paired board indicates all his 2 pairs beat your 2 pairs..
 
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Pessoa

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if called your c bet and the board brings no change, for sure he calls and hops to find no aa or kk or qq
 
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TCashMoney19

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Explanation for Play

Just some basic information about the table dynamic and general statistics of players involved.

Table had been very tight/passive 6-handed for the majority of the game. Therefore, I increased my aggressiveness when it was applicable and where I deemed most profitable, especially in BlindvBlind or BUTvBlind situations where a lot of average 2NL players don't do well.

Over 360 hands, Villian (the BUT in the above hand) is playing:
VPIP: 15 , PFR: 10, AF: 2, RFI: 15, Fold to 3Bet: 40%, Fold to Flop CBet: 43% Fold to Turn CBet: 50%

During the current session, Hero has been playing tight aggressive and hasn't shown many bluffs/getting out of line. I'll post my session stats if someone is interested, but right now I'll just say that I have a tight/aggressive image and am viewed as a solid player that is capable of making plays when necessary.

BUT opens to a standard 3BB, I look down at Q5s. I know this probably isn't the BEST hand to 3Bet bluff with, I would normally choose a hand like Ax suited for ace blockers or a hand like a suited connector to 3Bet bluff here with. But BUT is a relatively tight player and doesn't play back against people a lot, so I figured that as long as he doesn't wake up with a nutted hand I could either get him to fold pre or outplay him post. So I 3bet to 9.5BB and Villian calls. When Villain calls here, I put him on AQo-, AJs- broadways, and pocket pairs 2s-10s, as I thought he would be 4bet/getting in JJ+ against a SB 3bet against a player like me who has a 3bet percentage of around 8-10% on average especially from the blinds.

Flop comes pretty good for my hand, I flop a flush draw with a gutshot straight draw and an overcard. So even against the top of his range here, I know I'm a slight favorite against most every hand he would just call with preflop on the BUT (16 outs x 4 = 64% equity on flop). I put out a standard CBet and he calls. Once he calls, I know he's a decent enough player to call with Ax knowing I'll give up on some turns, obviously he's calling all overpairs 7s-10s, and I think he's capable of floating in position with a hand like KJ w/ the king of clubs. Hands like that. My range either looks like a complete air ball, semi bluffs or overpairs. When the turn comes a 4 and pairs the board, I know it's not a good card to barrel. However, Villain is a regular and knows that I shouldn't be barelling this card very often. So I decide to play tricky and check with the intention of check jamming, knowing he's going to bet his floats the vast majority of the time here and then fold to a jam.

In my mind, Villain has to fold almost everything but the top of his range here (99-JJ are the only hands I ever expect to be called by here, and he can just have so much other stuff that just HAS to fold to a turn check/jam). I'm obviously repping an overpair here (JJs+), and I would and have played overpairs exactly like this on many occasions. I also know Villain is capable of folding a lot of hands, as he's a tight reg that doesn't get out of line very often. But, in this exact spot, I get snapped by JJ which I never really expect him to fold as it as literally the top of his 3bet calling range preflop. But even when called, I know I have at least 32% equity on the turn against his range (16 outs x 2 = 32) so I feel like this is a profitable spot to bluff in the long term cause even when I'm called I get there a good amount of the time. Thoughts on this line? Thanks! :D
 
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TCashMoney19

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Dont think JJ is folding there.. board is not wet enough for you to bluff river.. all flush draws missed and straight draws as well if picked up any on turn.. paired board indicates all his 2 pairs beat your 2 pairs..

Obviously not, I mention that in my write up. Villain is at the top of his BUT 3bet calling range and is never folding SPECIFICALLY JJ here, but think about his RANGE on the BUT and not just the hand he actually showed up with here. Villain only folds to flop CBets about 43% of the time over 360 hands, so he's good enough to float in position here with random hands. He will be betting all of those floats on the turn the VAST majority of the time, and then when I jam he just has to insta fold pretty much everything but Ax of clubs and 99s+, as 88 blocks the potential straight draw bluffs I could have. I realize that Villain probably isn't thinking this deeply about the hand, but my line is certainly a line I would take with overpairs here (JJs+), so I'm wondering if my line .vs. Villains percieved range is bad? Even when called I have 32% equity on the turn to get there against almost everything but Ax of clubs, and I think he might even fold that to a check/jam on the turn because he's only barely getting the right price to call with a flush draw.
 
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lancel

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It really depends on the player as to whether or not what you did is +ev. When he calls with Jj that tells me he probably doesn't call 3-bets light. maybe 99+ ajs+ or something. When he calls flop he played back at aggression on flop your hand probably becomes a check back type of hand on turn.
 
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TCashMoney19

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It really depends on the player as to whether or not what you did is +ev. When he calls with Jj that tells me he probably doesn't call 3-bets light. maybe 99+ ajs+ or something. When he calls flop he played back at aggression on flop your hand probably becomes a check back type of hand on turn.

Yeah, you may be right. You mean check/fold turn? I don't know, it's a close spot...I don't really like check/calling and check folding seems too nitty against the potential hands he could have + implied odds if I hit. Maybe I just keep barelling on the turn and fold to a turn jam or check/fold river if he calls and I don't hit my draw on the river. Again, I may be wrong in my assumption that he has to fold everything but the top of his range here on the turn. But I hadn't shown him a tendency to bluff jam like this before and, at 2NL, this jam is almost always a value hand and not a big semi-bluff like what I had.

But I think you're right in your assumption that he's not calling 3Bets very light. But even still, I feel like he has to fold everything but 99s+ when I jam turn cause most of the time I'll just have JJ+ here. But who knows...he might have had a dead read on me, knowing I'd donk it off with a monster draw :rolleyes: thanks for the input though!
 
TheMagic

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I don´t think it´s an EV+ move, since he put too much pressure on a dry post-flop, of course you could have QQ, KK, AA, covering his range, but in this board, hardly you would have small pairs , to make a three of kind. It´s hard to say, because I don´t know your game style , but he could put you in ranges like AK, and in few occasions in AQ, making he´s bets more easier to make, as you played out of position.
 
PKPurple

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BTN is a tight player and would probably withdraw with a hand like AK, AQ but after having made a 3bet preflop and continue betting on a flop so I think I should have thought that you had a higher pair or you were bluffing but with JJ it was very Unlikely to retire
 
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BanOne28

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I think it is a solid line, but I also think that man=y microstakes players are just never getting away from their 99+ if there are no 3 card straight, flush, or over cards. Honestly wouldn't have surprised me to see him call with as low as 88 on the turn shove. Considering the flush outs and the Q overcard however, I'd assume the bluff is definitely +ev since he should fold all but 88+ and really can't have QQ+ since he would have 4bet, as you mentioned. I too am surprised he didn't 4bet with JJ preflop though
 
Bogdan Pyts

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bad line, preflop fold i think. on nl2 less recommended lesser bluff
 
Aces2w1n

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check raise flop
or bet 3/4

the more aggressive the opponent the more im likely to xr and hope he raises and we shove and flip

passive we lead out and build pot up... we aint wanting folds
 
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ivanbbb

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Hey guys, here is a hand I played recently at 2NL on ACR. I'll write my thoughts on the hand after I post the hand history. Any thoughts/feedback would be appreciated! Thanks. Here is the hand:

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 98.5 BB (VPIP: 13.15, PFR: 12.21, 3Bet Preflop: 5.06, Hands: 217)
BTN: 101 BB (VPIP: 14.61, PFR: 10.11, 3Bet Preflop: 1.72, Hands: 360)
Hero (SB): 105 BB
BB: 253.5 BB (VPIP: 9.41, PFR: 7.06, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 85)
UTG: 274.5 BB (VPIP: 39.29, PFR: 35.71, 3Bet Preflop: 28.57, Hands: 28)
MP: 273.5 BB (VPIP: 17.78, PFR: 7.85, 3Bet Preflop: 0.60, Hands: 437)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q<font color='black'>♣</font> 5<font color='black'>♣</font>

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 3 BB, Hero raises to 9.5 BB, fold, BTN calls 6.5 BB

Flop: (20 BB, 2 players) 4<font color='black'>♣</font> 6<font color='red'>♥</font> 2<font color='black'>♣</font>
Hero bets 10.5 BB, BTN calls 10.5 BB

Turn: (41 BB, 2 players) 4<font color='black'>♠</font>
Hero checks, BTN bets 42 BB, Hero raises to 85 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 39 BB and is all-in

River: (203 BB, 2 players) T<font color='red'>♥</font>

BTN shows J<font color='red'>♦</font> J<font color='red'>♥</font> (Two Pair, Jacks and Fours)
(Pre 68%, Flop 45%, Turn 68%)
Hero shows Q<font color='black'>♣</font> 5<font color='black'>♣</font> (One Pair, Fours)
(Pre 32%, Flop 55%, Turn 32%)
BTN wins 193 BB

3 BB was deducted from the pot for the jackpot.


my dear friend! I recently finished my article about the EV! Please do me the honor and read the article! There I pointed out in detail the reasons! Read all 3 articles! There you will find answers on this hand!
 
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chronical

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bad/ all bad
1. you are trying to bluff at NL2 =)
2. your 3bet with Q5s here is just.... 0_o
3. your ops seems to be tight TAG so strong pairs and Ax highs are in his range 100% that is even more indicative with 3bet of 9bb call (you would not call something like that even from a very bad player with 89s) so ~AJs+ ~TT+ something like that atleast!
4. (what he sees) you 3bet him so you must have something good too A5s+ 88+. The bords is nothing. The only hands you could be having (in his mind) that could be betting/callling for protection are AJo/s+(~48hands)a в some wired pairs that you overplayed like 77/88/99. He had too much inversted + % of winning is to big at this bord for him to fold here to any bet. If you are trying to show a set/2 pair... well think like this would you 3bet 9bb with 66/44/22/64/42...? =). If you are showing QQ-AA than most likely you would shove that hand PRF vs his 3bb raise PRF or shoved/3bet shoved on the flop
5. is were you go .... far =). Again what are you trying to show set/boat - no, over pair to JJ, thas 18 hands... not really happening here unless you slow rolled them, but from what I can see how you play and what you defend here its really unlikely for you to value bet 3 streets AA or KK
6. I think your problems started PRF. Why would you 3bet a TAG/almost a NIT at 6-max with somethink like Q5s. You are dominted so easy + even when you do hit you Q... In addition you bluff is supposed to show QQ-AA or a set. Set of 4/6/2 would not make much sence. QQ-AA are shoved and even than that like 18 hands
 
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TCashMoney19

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bad/ all bad
1. you are trying to bluff at NL2 =)
2. your 3bet with Q5s here is just.... 0_o
3. your ops seems to be tight TAG so strong pairs and Ax highs are in his range 100% that is even more indicative with 3bet of 9bb call (you would not call something like that even from a very bad player with 89s) so ~AJs+ ~TT+ something like that atleast!
4. (what he sees) you 3bet him so you must have something good too A5s+ 88+. The bords is nothing. The only hands you could be having (in his mind) that could be betting/callling for protection are AJo/s+(~48hands)a в some wired pairs that you overplayed like 77/88/99. He had too much inversted + % of winning is to big at this bord for him to fold here to any bet. If you are trying to show a set/2 pair... well think like this would you 3bet 9bb with 66/44/22/64/42...? =). If you are showing QQ-AA than most likely you would shove that hand PRF vs his 3bb raise PRF or shoved/3bet shoved on the flop
5. is were you go .... far =). Again what are you trying to show set/boat - no, over pair to JJ, thas 18 hands... not really happening here unless you slow rolled them, but from what I can see how you play and what you defend here its really unlikely for you to value bet 3 streets AA or KK
6. I think your problems started PRF. Why would you 3bet a TAG/almost a NIT at 6-max with somethink like Q5s. You are dominted so easy + even when you do hit you Q... In addition you bluff is supposed to show QQ-AA or a set. Set of 4/6/2 would not make much sence. QQ-AA are shoved and even than that like 18 hands

In response to this, as I feel like it needs addressing:

1. Granted, bluffing isn't always the best at 2NL. Normally it's just value bets and keep the bluffing at a minimum, and you'll see the best return. However, in certain spots, if you're not willing to bluff against regulars then you will become exploitable. So, at certain times where it can be profitable, it is necessary to bluff at 2NL against regulars who are capable of folding. I keep it to a minimum of course, but it's still a necessary component to a winning strategy.

2. As I mentioned, I normally like 3betting with suited connectors or suited, wheel aces. The Q5s 3Bet was certainly loose, and probably not the best hand to do it with considering blockers were minimal. However, 3betting suited kings and queens from the blinds can become profitable if used conservatively. This is a very rare occurrence from me and the only reason I did it was because of the table dynamics I mentioned above.

3. If the range you mentioned is the only range you're calling with on the button to SB/BB three bets, I guarantee you are making mistakes and folding too much. You become wayyy too easy to play against when ranges are wide and this is probably a leak in your own game that I would look into. If you are folding 99s, ATs, KJs, QJs, and similar hands, you are folding too many hands and the range you constructed is wayyyy too tight to be profitable. So I don't think this is a reasonable assumption to make for any decent player opening on the button.

4. Again, your explanation is too narrow of what my percieved range could be. When I jam on the turn, I'm obviously representing strong overpairs (10s+) and strong combo draws. His JJ should never fold here and I recognized that, and if I knew he was flatting hands as strong as JJ this might make this play more questionable. However, considering how many hands he is likely flatting my 3bet with and floating the flop, I think my check jam folds out everything but 88s or 99s+, his ace high and king high floats and draws that have equity literally always have to fold the turn considering the price. I ran into the top of his range here, obviously and that is not folding. However, I believe enough of his range that gets there on the turn HAS to fold to my jam here and it would be luducrious to bet call with anything less than 88s or 99s here.

5. What you're saying doesn't make sense, try to elaborate on point #5.

6. 3Betting a NIT with q5s is actually the BEST play here. They will fold way too much and will fold strong hands that they should be flatting with, which makes this play way more profitable as opposed to three betting a calling station or a fish. You should read up more on how to exploit NITS and tight players, as 3betting them light is literally the best way to make money from them as they don't like putting in a lot of money unless they have the nuts or a very strong hand. So your point here doesn't really make a lot of sense either, as light 3bets against a NIT is actually one of the more profitable approaches to getting money out of them.

Some aspects of my bluff are bad and may be considered crazy, but I think there is something to be learned from it as well and it isn't all bad. Expand those horizons :)
 
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stokedog4

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I like all your reasoning behind your play. There not all bad.
I think your 3b bluff with Q5s is pretty loose. However, the button here probably folds most of his hands here....
And this is where the problems arise. You should only be 3b bluffing here pre flop I think. Yes it's a great flop for you.
ALARM BELLS SHOULD GO OFF... Don't just see your hand - flush draw, gut shot, and an over card.
Think - What does my opponent have ? ANSWER - STRONG HAND

So check call the flop and check raise the turn if you hit... other wise - pot control after the flop, b/c the jam here is just gambling to hit your hand it looks like to me.

You had some heart and stuck with it, but hard to bluff at 2NL or really any level.

stoke
 
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TCashMoney19

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I like all your reasoning behind your play. There not all bad.
I think your 3b bluff with Q5s is pretty loose. However, the button here probably folds most of his hands here....
And this is where the problems arise. You should only be 3b bluffing here pre flop I think. Yes it's a great flop for you.
ALARM BELLS SHOULD GO OFF... Don't just see your hand - flush draw, gut shot, and an over card.
Think - What does my opponent have ? ANSWER - STRONG HAND

So check call the flop and check raise the turn if you hit... other wise - pot control after the flop, b/c the jam here is just gambling to hit your hand it looks like to me.

You had some heart and stuck with it, but hard to bluff at 2NL or really any level.

stoke

Through analyzing villain's stats and also the dynamic of Blind .vs. But situations, I really don't think Villain ALWAYS have to have a strong hand. He's a good enough player to float with a hand like AJ with the ace of clubs, or similar hands and I think the assumption that he's always nutted here isn't an assumption we always have to make.

I wouldn't really consider my jam a gamble either, as I have fold equity and he has to fold a lot of hands that beat mine when I check jam the turn here. Obviously, not JJ or TT or 99, but in my mind even 88s and 77s have a tough time calling here and he can never call with A/K high profitably in my mind unless he has a soul read on me. Maybe I should have recognized that he might not be betting ace high or even king high on the turn, but I still think he has enough floats on the flop on that kind of board to make the check jam profitable. Notice that I still had 32% equity on the turn even against the TOP of his range, so that combined with fold equity makes me think that the bluff is profitable against players who are capable of folding hands. Which, as a regular, this guy certainly is.

But yeah, my play was certainly loose and I wouldn't advocate doing it very often :) haha
 
Aces2w1n

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I guess another thing you need to look at... theres little to no fold equity.

We have plenty of equity but to make this profitable overall we have to get some folds.
 
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subsinind

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When the button calls your raise preflop, he has a good hand.

If you are in the mood to gamble, you should have shoved after flop. The check on the turn is not gonna be considered as a slowplay at that stakes.

You should have called the turn and check/fold the river. Bluffs never works 95% of the times at these stakes.
 
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TCashMoney19

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I guess another thing you need to look at... theres little to no fold equity.

We have plenty of equity but to make this profitable overall we have to get some folds.

Good point. I think when he pots it, I should've realized that he's probably not folding whatever he's potting the turn with. Regardless of what it is. I think that's where I made a mistake, I should've either kept firing on the turn or check/call if I'm getting odds to do so or check/shove if he bet something more indicative that he might fold. When he pots it like that, I think you're right, the fold equity isn't as much as we need it to be to make this particular line against this particular player profitable.
 
Aces2w1n

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Good point. I think when he pots it, I should've realized that he's probably not folding whatever he's potting the turn with. Regardless of what it is. I think that's where I made a mistake, I should've either kept firing on the turn or check/call if I'm getting odds to do so or check/shove if he bet something more indicative that he might fold. When he pots it like that, I think you're right, the fold equity isn't as much as we need it to be to make this particular line against this particular player profitable.



Yeah he was saying i have a hand... but we do get caught up with our own plays and miss the obv.


Love is blind... and we love making plays sometimes which just arent there... we get blinded
 
mbrenneman0

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i think youre overthinking this by a mile. its 2NL just play tight, bet for value and fold when you dont have a hand or proper drawing odds, youll make money

oh and dont bluff
 
ByronP

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Lots of good comments, very good trend. Hope you find some help with the comments.
 
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Short version - I wouldn't 3bet this hand from SB. On the turn you are looking for a fold where you will very rarely get one. On the turn the hand doesn't hold enough value to justify getting the money in.


Somewhat unnecessary longer version-

I think there are a couple of considerations:

Pre-flop to me this is almost always a fold; unless the button has been getting massively out of line, their fold vs 3bets is very high or they will fold to cbets a large amount. This hand just won't flop very well and will be difficult to play out of position in a bloated pot; so you are looking for quick folds from villian without a contest for the pot.

As played, turn becomes the decision point in the hand:
I don't believe this is an effective bluff/ semi bluff - Facing a turn pot bet means that your shove has little to no fold equity, to me villian is saying 'I want to get the money in now, I don't want to allow draws to get the there before the money is in'; ok sometimes they might do this with no made hand such as overcards but even then we often need to hit the draw to win the pot.
If its not a bluff then is it for value? - simply put, no, we aren't going to improve enough of the time on the river to make this a profitable all in situation.

Overall I think this play puts you in too many weird spots post flop that you cant expect to get much value from. :)
 
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