General "what to do" on big board

zebranky

zebranky

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so I've played this differently on different nights, but I thought I'd ask what y'all think I should be doing in this situation.
$1/$2 cash table, average stacks (between 80 and 120).
I've got a middle pair (99, for example), late position.
Middle position bets out 6, I raise to 18, everyone else folds, MP calls.

Flop comes KQJ, rainbow. He's a fairly tight player, and the call on the PF suggests no high PP, so I'm fairly sure he has either a middle pair, AQ, AJ or AT. Obviously that last one is my big problem, and it is possible - but not likely - he called with KQ or KJ.
he checks the flop - do I bet? Its either bet big now or decide to fold at the first opportunity - how would y'all play?
 
ChuckTs

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underpair vs a tight player who called a strong reraise PF, with the board showing KQJ.

The only hands that fit the betting pattern so far and won't have hit the flop are middle pairs. This is one of those times you have to realize a C-bet is not in order.

What is your general table image? I will pretty much check-fold this flop unless I'm seen as an extremely tight player...even then I just don't think it's a smart idea...
 
zebranky

zebranky

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What is your general table image? I will pretty much check-fold this flop unless I'm seen as an extremely tight player...even then I just don't think it's a smart idea...

players who know me (usually 1 or 2 on the table) know that at this stack level, I'm a TAG - I only play pairs or top 10 hands PF. The guys who don't know me can get different reads, as its fairly rare that my hands go to showdown without an all-in somewhere. I'm always aggressive, but the whole tight/loose bit changes depending on my stack in relation to the table.

I guess the question is whether, over many repititions, I'm making a profit by betting (which implies that I think my opponent has made less than TopPairTopKicker or 2 pair), or letting the hand go (which assume my opponent has TPTK or better, or that he thinks I'm bluffing). I'm fairly certain he has a pair, but not which one. MY PF raise was my standard one for any middle/high PP or AK/AQ, so I don't think my opponent has enough information to believe I didn't hit the flop.

It's not so much a C-bet as a bluff - like I said, I'm fairly certain I don't have the best hand, but on the other hand, I can represent the best hand without too much difficulty.
 
ChuckTs

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Well I'm no good at actual hand analysis - ie getting your EV by breaking down the hand completely, but nearly any hand that a 'tight' player is calling a reraise with PF is going to hit that board fairly strongly. AQ+ and probably TT+ (though QQ-AA are fairly improbable with no reraise preflop).

The actual breakdown of this hand would depend on which pairs villain would be willing to call with...based on your read of him would you say that he'd call hands like 2nd or 3rd pair with a straight draw (AQ/AJ) if you were to C-bet?
 
ChuckTs

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It's not so much a C-bet as a bluff - like I said, I'm fairly certain I don't have the best hand, but on the other hand, I can represent the best hand without too much difficulty.


That's very much a C-bet...you've continued your action from PF to postflop with a continuation bet. This one just has a (much) smaller chance of succeeding IMO.
 
zebranky

zebranky

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The actual breakdown of this hand would depend on which pairs villain would be willing to call with...based on your read of him would you say that he'd call hands like 2nd or 3rd pair with a straight draw (AQ/AJ) if you were to C-bet?

I'm looking for a general sort of tactic here rather than a specific hand, so assume he's your "average" TAG player - not too tight, but not willing to call if he thinks the odds are against him.

And the reason I don't really consider this a C-bet is more from my own perspective than the table. Yes, I am continuing my PF raise, but I consider a C-bet to be an "automatic" flop bet, when you're not sure the other guys has hit or not, so you bet to find out.
Here, I'm certain he HAS hit the flop better than I have, but don't think he got the best hand out of it, so I'm bluffing.
 
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alan1983

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Why are you ruling out big pocket pairs for him?
Not that i think he has one, but how does his pf call rule out a big pair.

If i had jj or qq i wouldnt re-raise a raise 9x the big bling necessarily
 
ChuckTs

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JJ is a very big possibility, but I really don't see QQ-AA cold calling preflop. It is possible, but slim; people who play tight/aggressive are aggressive with their hands - they don't want someone with A-face seeing a flop for cheap when their holding, say, QQ.

I suppose that would depend on what their read on hero is in this hand too, though. If he's really on the tight side, then cold-calling QQ isn't so improbable.
 
zebranky

zebranky

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cold call the raise preflop....
With a middle pair?
I really prefer to take down the hand PF with middle pair, so I think a raise is appropriate. Especially when I've got position, I know that only monsters are going to re-re-raise me (so I can fold), and most Ax hands and PP will fold. I get to narrow my opponents range of hands by raising, as well as shutting down a lot of flop betting. Without re-raising, I have too large a range of hands my opponent could have, most of which I'm a favorite against until the flop comes down. And, of course, I don't know when he does hit the flop, because I haven't narrowed the range.
 
zebranky

zebranky

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Why are you ruling out big pocket pairs for him?
Not that i think he has one, but how does his pf call rule out a big pair.

If i had jj or qq i wouldnt re-raise a raise 9x the big bling necessarily

the PF play doesn't really rule out high pair, but I think his initial bet and then calling when he knows he's OOP doesn't fit a big pair.

AA or KK - the standard TAG approach is to keep raising PF, and try to get all the money in the middle. There's very little reason to believe he doesn't have the best PF hand, so getting me to commit more chips is the logical move, unless he wants to slowplay.

QQ or JJ might just call my raise, but I would have expected a bigger initial bet from one of those hands PF - because either of these hands really wants to make sure its HU on the flop, it isn't likely that they would bet only 3xBB when they're first to act.
 
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Dingodaddy23

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preflop, is good, i think you have to fire at this flop also, nothing too much, like 2/3 pot or something like that. you've showed huge strength preflop, it probably looks you hit that board hard. I think a C-bet takes this down more often than you think.
 
Bombjack

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Check behind on the flop. If he bets the turn, put in a big raise. He'll fold unless he has AT / a set.

This has the advantage that
a) you get more value
b) he's got worse odds to draw out
c) he won't see it as a continuation bet and is more likely to fold
 
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